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I think that, if they have similar technical issues as model S, they will be in trouble. Costs will be very high and also the imago of bad reliability will follow them for years.
From the pretty sharp Tesla reaction on CR-reports on alleged average reliabilty of model 3, we can see how bad Tesla wants to do it right this time. And frankly, I thing they are right given the high numbers in which the car will be produced.

They might "want" to do it right but do they have the technical capability? I always assumed that by the time the 3 came out they would be building highly reliable cars.... but it seems like the hits to the S and the X keep coming.
 
Honestly I think that the best possible thing that could happen to Tesla is to have their stock price impacted and then get acquired by someone like Toyota who has mass manufacturing completely down. Then again, I have been accused of being a cynic before.

The reality of THAT scenario would likely play out in the buyer shutting down the brand and the product down entirely.
 
They might "want" to do it right but do they have the technical capability? I always assumed that by the time the 3 came out they would be building highly reliable cars.... but it seems like the hits to the S and the X keep coming.
I think the S and X are still hit or miss. My personal experiences with the company Model S (2013 model) and my Model S (2016 model) have been positive.
 
They might "want" to do it right but do they have the technical capability? I always assumed that by the time the 3 came out they would be building highly reliable cars.... but it seems like the hits to the S and the X keep coming.
That's why it is so important that they take their time right now. Every 'new' car manufacturer will have these types of issues, the one more than the other. There is no fixed time schedule for the learning curve, they'll just have to go through the motions and improve every day of every week of every month for years to come.
 
On October 6th Elon said "Probably 5-8 weeks" for the design studio. That puts it "Probably" at November 20th - Dec 4th + Elon Time means Christmas - New Years.
Note that Elon said the design studio was for models to be configured *after* the current PuP cars. From subsequent tweets he said that you don't need a design studio to choose color and wheels. So, the design studio is not a blocker to early customer shipments.
 
Note that Elon said the design studio was for models to be configured *after* the current PuP cars. From subsequent tweets he said that you don't need a design studio to choose color and wheels. So, the design studio is not a blocker to early customer shipments.
I think design studio is still needed for the 1st delivery PuP cars. There are still 100s of Ks of orders in that group, I don't see a way Tesla can handle that many orders without an automated interface like the design studio.

My interpretation of Elon's tweets is that the design studio input required for the 1st delivery PuP cars will be minimum, so Tesla can batch build PuP cars with a certain mix of colors, and then based on the input from the design studio, put on the requested wheel size and assign to customers based on their color choices. So if design studio opens by late Nov, a bunch of cars could be delivered starting early Dec, which can meet the Oct-Dec timeframe for the estimates they gave out to many current owners.
 
Why would you say that? What history has shown as so far is that it doesn't matter how much Tesla messes up, their stock price just goes up whenever Elon speaks.
Tesla gets a bit of a pass because they are building highly desirable products that you can't get anywhere else. While they've made some mistakes and have their share of problems, people are willing to give them a pass because the end product is worth it.

Their stock price is a reflection of the assumption that electrification is the future of the automotive industry and Tesla is the big name in that space now and in the near future. When other manufacturers get it together and finally make a decent, non-wierdmobile EV then that may change.
 
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I think design studio is still needed for the 1st delivery PuP cars. There are still 100s of Ks of orders in that group, I don't see a way Tesla can handle that many orders without an automated interface like the design studio.

My interpretation of Elon's tweets is that the design studio input required for the 1st delivery PuP cars will be minimum, so Tesla can batch build PuP cars with a certain mix of colors, and then based on the input from the design studio, put on the requested wheel size and assign to customers based on their color choices. So if design studio opens by late Nov, a bunch of cars could be delivered starting early Dec, which can meet the Oct-Dec timeframe for the estimates they gave out to many current owners.
Don't they already have some sort of online interface for ordering Model 3? I swear we've seen screenshots of it (hard to keep track of what is real and what is just a mockup made by a random person). I was under the impression that when Elon was talking about a design studio, he meant a full-fledged one that includes many various options (as opposed to the current one that only allows for a few choices).
 
Tesla gets a bit of a pass because they are building highly desirable products that you can't get anywhere else. While they've made some mistakes and have their share of problems, people are willing to give them a pass because the end product is worth it.

Their stock price is a reflection of the assumption that electrification is the future of the automotive industry and Tesla is the big name in that space now and in the near future. When other manufacturers get it together and finally make a decent, non-wierdmobile EV then that may change.
Agreed, as long as the delay in Tesla's schedule is much smaller than the lead Tesla has on competitors, it won't matter. If BMW for some miraculous reason starts selling a bunch of 3-series BEV with 200-300mi range and costs <$50K in early 2018, sure, delays in the Model 3 would matter a lot.
 
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Don't they already have some sort of online interface for ordering Model 3? I swear we've seen screenshots of it (hard to keep track of what is real and what is just a mockup made by a random person). I was under the impression that when Elon was talking about a design studio, he meant a full-fledged one that includes many various options (as opposed to the current one that only allows for a few choices).
There is a reservation page. There is also the delivery estimate page, where you can save your preference for which delivery batch you want, choices are 1st delivery (LR RWD PuP), standard battery, and AWD. That may be what you're thinking about.
 
Don't they already have some sort of online interface for ordering Model 3? I swear we've seen screenshots of it (hard to keep track of what is real and what is just a mockup made by a random person). I was under the impression that when Elon was talking about a design studio, he meant a full-fledged one that includes many various options (as opposed to the current one that only allows for a few choices).
There really isn't "many" various options. The screenshots we've seen from employee orders will be pretty much it I think.
 
There is a reservation page. There is also the delivery estimate page, where you can save your preference for which delivery batch you want, choices are 1st delivery (LR RWD PuP), standard battery, and AWD. That may be what you're thinking about.
I thought that one of the employees shared screenshots of the configurator.

Edit - zl (@sfmartinlin) | Twitter
Edit 2 - Online configurator preview

There really isn't "many" various options. The screenshots we've seen from employee orders will be pretty much it I think.
I mean once more options are available (Base, AWD, etc).
 
The reality of THAT scenario would likely play out in the buyer shutting down the brand and the product down entirely.

Why?

Did BMW shut down the Mini brand, did Tata shut down Range Rover?

I think history proves that if the brand has value the new owner will always keep it going as a separate line.

There's zero question in my mind that Ford or Toyota could marry their manufacturing know how to Tesla engineering and get these cars built more efficiently and with fewer problems... and with better quality.
 
I thought that one of the employees shared screenshots of the configurator.

Edit - zl (@sfmartinlin) | Twitter
Edit 2 - Online configurator preview


I mean once more options are available (Base, AWD, etc).
OK, yes the design studio for M3 exists and is open to employees, with choices for color and wheel size, and EAP/FSD SW options. My interpretation is that this design studio with these limited options will be open to non-employees in late Nov, and not one with additional options such as SR, non-PuP, etc.
 
Ok so I did a bit of manual digging in the NHTSA website... And I know last time we had up to vin 1134 with only 260 produced, but I am assuming there was a density issue, meaning only 260 below 1134 were actually registered. Now that there are up to 2136 (as a max vin) I went through one by one until the VIN lookup required me to put in a captcha each time.

For vins 1837 - 2136 (300) there were 30 vins not registered.
For vins 735 - 1334 (600) there were 59 vins not registered and 2 that were valid vins but not produced (these vins don't come up with a 0 recalls for the vehicle but instead an error, but not a check digit error - meaning the vins are still valid)

Just from this subset of data we know they have at least 809 registered with the NHTSA. I am thinking it is safe to say if a vin returns a 0 recalls notice they have been produced, but could be wrong.
 
Why?

Did BMW shut down the Mini brand, did Tata shut down Range Rover?

I think history proves that if the brand has value the new owner will always keep it going as a separate line.

There's zero question in my mind that Ford or Toyota could marry their manufacturing know how to Tesla engineering and get these cars built more efficiently and with fewer problems... and with better quality.

Ford's 2nd best selling sedan (the Fusion) is one of Consumer Reports 10 least reliable cars. While the X is also on that list, the S just got bumped up to "Above Average" reliability by CR. I don't know that it's a given that Ford (or Toyota for that matter) would automatically make Tesla vehicles have better quality. I think the S shows that Tesla can make a high quality product with a mature production line.
 
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They might "want" to do it right but do they have the technical capability? I always assumed that by the time the 3 came out they would be building highly reliable cars.... but it seems like the hits to the S and the X keep coming.
My personal experience reminds me a lot of my experience with early Windows pc’s. Far too much involuntary beta testing by customers and a lot of that involves over the air updates. We all love getting updates but only if they are bullet proof and that is not happening.

And the over the top promises got old eons ago.
 
For example, if you have a Tesla now, you probably know about the recent problem with Homelink (garage door opener). Tesla has taken a flawless feature and broken it while trying to upgrade it for auto opening/closing. Service centers are being inundated with phone calls. This is just an example but there have been many others.

Good reporting..... Those folks just forgot to reboot after the update which is standard procedure.