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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
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- Model 3
Reciprocity
Active Member
Since they are deliveries, wouldn't hand delivered be more accurate... Haha. It clearly states in the release that they peaked at 1k/week in the last few days of the production year.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Garlan Garner
Banned
Actually Musk said “production rates in the last few days extrapolating to more than 1K per week.”
Reciprocity
Active Member
Marina del Ray can do 100/hour as long as everyone drinks triple shot espressos all day, including delivery experts and deliverees. I think the real issue is that there are not billing the cars fast enough and this hand delivered issue is a red herring. Admit it!️️, I clearly don't know how to take emoticons.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Frisco-Dad
Member
http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1053245
"we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week."
Garlan Garner
Banned
That's good news. At least we have some accurate news. Only 398 weeks to go.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Don't you mean 500+ weeks.. holy crap when you put it like that it's nuts how much demand there is for this car. 1000/week is about the same quantity produced as model S is today. In a way, it's a slow ramp, but in another it's pretty amazing to add another model at the same pace in just 6 mo. Granted it's not nearly enough to satisfy demand, but damn that's a good problem to have.
suwaneedad
Member
This delay in the ramp is going to have a material negative effect on a lot of US buyers counting on the full tax credit. Assuming S continues to sell at current rate (and presumably X will, since it does not compete against 3 as much as S appears to be doing of late), this means fewer 3 buyers are going to enjoy the full credit since the deliveries threshold which triggers the reduced credits will be hit later, but via more S/X than 3, with fewer 3 owners overall availing themselves of this large discount. BTW, the delayed ramp also presumably means longer waits for M3 Standard Range (lower margin) as well. Not a good day for rez holders.
Garlan Garner
Banned
People have been frowning at me and scoffing all over this forum when I post these kinds of numbers and comments, however they are true. I'm happy that Tesla has grown to 1K per week. That's a great accomplishment, however if anyone tried to make 500K of anything at a rate of 1k per week.....it would take over 9 years to finish. There are only 52 weeks in a year. I know that 1K seems phenomenal for Tesla as that meets/exceeds current Model S production rates.
As I've stated a few times here.....Tesla execs. have millions and some billions of reasons to be happy and in some cases they have worked hard to accomplish their reward. I believe its time for the customers of the Model 3 to be just as happy. I'm aware that "the ramp" isn't done @ 1k per week, however some Model 3 customers might not be happy with an additional 2-3 year wait. I want everyone to be just as pleased as the execs.
With that said.....the only way customers are going to be happy within the next 1.5 to 2 years is if Tesla hits 10K per week soon. Do the math.
Finally, Concerning Tesla....it would be just fantastic if Tesla would have a larger marketshare in the number of cars produced in the US. Their technological impact is far exceeding their market share impact across the US. There were over 17 million cars produced in the US alone in 2016. Last year Tesla produced 100K cars across their entire fleet. Tesla isn't new anymore. It would be fantastic for them to get to 500K cars produced in the next year or so. That would be great.
North American vehicle production 1990-2016 | Statistic
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Garlan - the real backlog is not 500k vehicles. There are ~500k refundable deposits. I'm guessing that will translate into 200k-250k backlog. Many people will back out due to the delay, changes to their financial picture, just decided on something else, etc. Still ominous... but not quite as ominous as you state.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Absolutely not. I don't believe that for a second.
Elon quoted many times that even thought they are anti selling the Model 3....new reservations were coming in around 1800 per day back in August. . Can you imagine what the reservation list will look like when the world starts to physically see what the Model 3 looks like as they get delivered across the US.....then overseas?
Tesla says it is getting 1,800 Model 3 reservations per day since Friday
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we're talking about today's backlog, not what's happening going forward. My only point is that (Number of $1000 Refundable deposits) ≠ (Number of cars that must be delivered ahead of someone placing an order today). There's some breakage in that order book.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Each day.....there is only 1 backlog and that includes ever order that hasn't been fulfilled. And according to Elon....that number was growing. I'm not sure what you are saying.
As soon as I get my Model 3...I am no longer backlogged....no matter when I made my reservation.
I don't think so, but we're probably just debating semantics here. In my mind, the real backlog is the orders that haven't been fulfilled LESS the ones that get cancelled along the way.
I'll try to explain it another way.
Let's say Elon says that as of today, there are 600,000 deposits for Model 3 vehicles (ignore the small number already delivered). I put my order in today as number 600,001. If the production rate is 1000 per week and never gets bigger (just to simplify the point), I will not have to wait 600 weeks to get my car. There will be quite a few people in that list of 600,000 ahead of me who change their mind. I just made a guess that it's 50%. pick your own breakage number.
I don't disagree with you that the backlog will keep getting bigger! The car will be very popular. Just trying to point out that forecasts of delivery dates often aren't including an estimate of the people who change their mind and never take delivery. That will speed up delivery by some amount.
ccutrer
Active Member
He’s simply trying to clarify. At 1k/week, it would take 500 weeks to clear the backlog as of today, with 100% conversion. At 1k/week, it might take 150 weeks to clear enough of the backlog to get to @Garlan Garner. At 1k/week production, some x of new orders per week, and 100% conversion, it would take (500k + x * w)/1000 = w weeks to clear all current and future backlog. Of course, we all know that production won’t stay constant at 1000/week, that order conversion won’t be 100%, and that new orders won’t be constant either. If new orders start going up faster than they’re producing due to increased word of mouth from people actually seeing the cars, that’s both a bad thing (how can they ever catch up?!), and a good thing (infinite demand!). My gut says it’ll probably be late 2019 before they completely clear all backlog worldwide. I think my definition of that is that anyone can do a custom order at any time, with no prior reservation, and expect to receive their car in ~4 weeks + transit time.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I'm going with what we know. You shouldn't build speculation into exact numbers.
For example...maybe everyone will cancel their order.....maybe no one will cancel their order....maybe people will double their order...who knows. Those maybes shouldn't be considered in conversations such as this.
