Highest production VIN in the wild

[JoshG]

I'm going with what we know. You shouldn't build speculation into exact numbers.

For example...maybe everyone will cancel their order.....maybe no one will cancel their order....maybe people will double their order...who knows. Those maybes shouldn't be considered in conversations such as this.

OK, i give up... that's ridiculous logic. It won't be all, it won't be none, it will be some reasonable number of cancellations. We can debate if it's 20%, 50%, or 70%, but it's certainly somewhere in that range. Admittedly, that's a big range. But it'd be crazy to ignore the possibility of ANY cancellations as you seem to be saying. So you are assuming 0% cancellations by not even factoring this in. That's a more egregious error in judgment over picking some reasonable percentage of breakage. And no one can "double their order" as you list as a possibility.

And by the way, breakage estimations are a standard part of demand forecasting, so I'm not promoting some crazy theory here.

 

[Garlan Garner]

He’s simply trying to clarify. At 1k/week, it would take 500 weeks to clear the backlog as of today, with 100% conversion. At 1k/week, it might take 150 weeks to clear enough of the backlog to get to @Garlan Garner. At 1k/week production, some x of new orders per week, and 100% conversion, it would take (500k + x * w)/1000 = w weeks to clear all current and future backlog. Of course, we all know that production won’t stay constant at 1000/week, that order conversion won’t be 100%, and that new orders won’t be constant either. If new orders start going up faster than they’re producing due to increased word of mouth from people actually seeing the cars, that’s both a bad thing (how can they ever catch up?!), and a good thing (infinite demand!). My gut says it’ll probably be late 2019 before they completely clear all backlog worldwide. I think my definition of that is that anyone can do a custom order at any time, with no prior reservation, and expect to receive their car in ~4 weeks + transit time.

Wait....

That's an interesting statement there at the end.

Do you believe that a person in California can place a reservation NOW and get their car in about 4 weeks over someone who waited in line over 2 years ago in Chicago?

 

[Garlan Garner]

OK, i give up... that's ridiculous logic. It won't be all, it won't be none, it will be some reasonable number of cancellations. We can debate if it's 20%, 50%, or 70%, but it's certainly somewhere in that range. And no one can "double their order" as you list as a possibility.

I meant order another Model 3. They have a reservation and then add another one. That's double the number of reservations. That has already happened with a major Patreon Tesla Podcaster --- twice.

Its not ridiculous logic. Lets use facts ...not speculation. Focusing on speculation more than facts is what is ridiculous. Even a reduction of 5K orders won't change the reservation list by more than 1 percent....so its a null point.

 

[JoshG]

Lets use facts ...not speculation. Focusing on speculation more than facts is what is ridiculous.

Really? We're BOTH speculating here. By ignoring breakage in your math, you're in fact speculating that it's zero. I'm speculating that it's something other than zero. I guarantee that forecasting "more than zero" breakage is going to be more accurate than your speculation that it will be zero.

Also - any pre-ordered product that has no penalty for getting your deposit back will always have higher breakage than something with a nonrefundable deposit. Can we at least agree on that?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Really? We're BOTH speculating here. By ignoring breakage, you're in fact speculating that it's zero. I'm speculating that it's something other than zero.

Speculate all you wish.....Speculation in this case ranges from 0-100 percent since you don't have any facts. Build in 5K cars canceled...that's still only 1%.


That's fine with me, but give me the facts first. Facts don't have speculation built in.

No matter what....Tesla has to build a boat load of cars and 1K per week isn't going to get it done in a timely fashion no matter how impressive that factual number is. Even at 5K per week......it will take over 2 years to deplete a 500K backlog "with no new reservations" coming in.

 

[03DSG]

Deliveries. But how many did they build?

Q4 production included 2520 Model 3:

Tesla says Model 3 production rate at ‘over 1,000 per week’ and breaks quarterly delivery record with 29,870 vehicles

 

[03DSG]

Anyone have any links to those numbers?

Tesla says Model 3 production rate at ‘over 1,000 per week’ and breaks quarterly delivery record with 29,870 vehicles

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tesla says Model 3 production rate at ‘over 1,000 per week’ and breaks quarterly delivery record with 29,870 vehicles

Thanks

Thanks for the facts.

 

[JoshG]

Speculate all you wish.....Speculation in this case ranges from 0-100 percent since you don't have any facts. Build in 5K cars canceled...that's still only 1%.


That's fine with me, but give me the facts first. Facts don't have speculation built in.

Fine, if you want facts, the cancellation rate was already at 12% before they shipped any cars. (source: Tesla saw about 63,000 cancellations of Model 3 preorders).

12%, not 1% as you guess.

And since that's BEFORE anyone had to write a check for $40k-50k, my own guess is that cancellation rates will be dramatically higher. But if you don't like speculation of any type, then go with 12%. That, as you asked for, is a fact.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Fine, if you want facts, the cancellation rate was already at 12% before they shipped any cars. (source: Tesla saw about 63,000 cancellations of Model 3 preorders).

12%, not 1% as you guess.

And since that's BEFORE anyone had to write a check for $40k-50k, my own guess is that cancellation rates will be dramatically higher. But if you don't like speculation of any type, then go with 12%. That, as you asked for, is a fact.

But a 12% reduction would be what? 60K cars.....that still does not change delivery times as it pertains to a 500K or 455K backlog. Lets not even add in the 1800 new reservations per day from back in August. The backlog deliver completion time doesn't really change at all. . It will still take 2 years to deliver the entire backlog @ 5K per week. That's my point. It doesn't move the delivery needle hardly at all.....so why discuss it? Why is it so important? Its not.

Why spend an entire page of a VIN number thread talking about something that really won't make a difference in the big picture.?

 

[ccutrer]

Wait....

That's an interesting statement there at the end.

Do you believe that a person in California can place a reservation NOW and get their car in about 4 weeks over someone who waited in line over 2 years ago in Chicago?

Oh, no, I mean at the point in time in the future, that anyone, anywhere can order a Model 3 with an expectation of 4 weeks + transit, then I will consider the backlog to have been cleared.

And no, I don’t believe that a California owner could place a reservation NOW and leapfrog you. But maybe. We’ve already seen that a California person that had an old reservation, but only became a Model S owner in the last 3 months leapfrogged the line and was invited to configure. I agree it’s getting a bit ridiculous that newly become owners are being prioritized the same as someone that has been an owner since 2016, but it is what it is. I doubt the number of people with first day reservations, that become a Model S owner from now until @Garlan Garner gets his Model 3 and opt to still order a Model 3 (ie leapfrogging you) will be more than a few thousand. So at most a few weeks delay for you, assuming production rate never picks up.

 

[ccutrer]

But a 12% reduction would be what? 60K cars.....that still does not change delivery times as it pertains to a 500K or 455K backlog. Lets not even add in the 1800 new reservations per day from back in August. The backlog deliver completion time doesn't really change at all. . It will still take 2 years to deliver the entire backlog @ 5K per week. That's my point. It doesn't move the delivery needle hardly at all.....so why discuss it? Why is it so important? Its not.

Why spend an entire page of a VIN number thread talking about something that really won't make a difference in the big picture.?

60k cars @ 1000/week = 60 weeks. More than a year sooner sure sounds significant to me. Even at 5k/week is 12 weeks - nearly 3 months. Still decent.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Oh, no, I mean at the point in time in the future, that anyone, anywhere can order a Model 3 with an expectation of 4 weeks + transit, then I will consider the backlog to have been cleared.

And no, I don’t believe that a California owner could place a reservation NOW and leapfrog you. But maybe. We’ve already seen that a California person that had an old reservation, but only became a Model S owner in the last 3 months leapfrogged the line and was invited to configure. I agree it’s getting a bit ridiculous that newly become owners are being prioritized the same as someone that has been an owner since 2016, but it is what it is. I doubt the number of people with first day reservations, that become a Model S owner from now until @Garlan Garner gets his Model 3 and opt to still order a Model 3 (ie leapfrogging you) will be more than a few thousand. So at most a few weeks delay for you, assuming production rate never picks up.

Great points. Thanks.

 

[Garlan Garner]

60k cars @ 1000/week = 60 weeks. More than a year sooner sure sounds significant to me. Even at 5k/week is 12 weeks - nearly 3 months. Still decent.

I was calculating the 5K per week. I guess its a matter of view. 1 year and 9 months isn't a big enough difference than 2 years to me to have a huge discussion about it.

The faster Tesla makes the Model 3 the more this discussion fades.

 

[ccutrer]

Oh, no, I mean at the point in time in the future, that anyone, anywhere can order a Model 3 with an expectation of 4 weeks + transit, then I will consider the backlog to have been cleared.

And no, I don’t believe that a California owner could place a reservation NOW and leapfrog you. But maybe. We’ve already seen that a California person that had an old reservation, but only became a Model S owner in the last 3 months leapfrogged the line and was invited to configure. I agree it’s getting a bit ridiculous that newly become owners are being prioritized the same as someone that has been an owner since 2016, but it is what it is. I doubt the number of people with first day reservations, that become a Model S owner from now until @Garlan Garner gets his Model 3 and opt to still order a Model 3 (ie leapfrogging you) will be more than a few thousand. So at most a few weeks delay for you, assuming production rate never picks up.

Hm, now that I think more about it, I really wouldnt be surprised if a new reservation from a current S/X owner allows them to leapfrog the whole line. We’ve also already seen that some california owners of only 1 vehicle have been invited to configure a second reservation. I haven’t been invited to configure on my 1st (and only) reservation yet, but I’m halfway tempted to place a second one right now and just get it refunded in a month or two, and see if somehow that one gets invited to configure in the same ballpark timeframe as my original 1st day reservation. For science.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I do wonder where Tesla is putting all of those cars......even at 1K per week. They have never produced that many cars before.....and the Fremont parking lot is tremendously small. They must have trucks full of Model 3's racing out of Fremont at a tremendous pace.

 

[RobStark]

This delay in the ramp is going to have a material negative effect on a lot of US buyers counting on the full tax credit.

The number of Federal credits is not finite.

Delaying the point at which the 200k US delivery occurs may allow Tesla to finish the last two quarters with Federal credit at a higher Model 3 production rate than otherwise would be the case. Say finishing the last 20 weeks at 8k Model 3 per week vs 4k per week.

Tesla also has the option of massaging the numbers by delaying US Model S and X orders and filling them in the rest of the world. Delaying the trigger of 200k US delivery and fitting in more weeks of Model 3 deliveries with full credit.

 

[RobStark]

I do wonder where Tesla is putting all of those cars......even at 1K per week. They have never produced that many cars before.....and the Fremont parking lot is tremendously small. They must have trucks full of Model 3's racing out of Fremont at a tremendous pace.

Tesla just delivered 101k cars in 52 weeks.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tesla just delivered 101k cars in 52 weeks.

Indeed they did. That's 8K cars per month.

Now the Model 3 is going to ramp up to 20K per month by itself. I wonder where they are going to store those cars.

 

[ccutrer]

Indeed they did. That's 8K cars per month.

Now the Model 3 is going to ramp up to 20K per month by itself. I wonder where they are going to store those cars.

Hopefully one in my garage, one in your garage, and distribute the rest out to the other 400-600k reservation holders

But seriously, NUMMI has produced this much volume before. As long as reworks are minimal, yes they’ll literally be rolling off the line and directly onto a truck or train.