Highest production VIN in the wild

[Waiting4M3]

I am assuming here that highest VIN reported does not mean production has hit that number. Given the VINs are not sequentially assigned, so 14k- 2.7k (2017 production) gives around 11.3k so I am assuming production of around 10k since not all the VINs till 14k will be used.

Thanks, I think we're doing the same guesstimate method to go from the VIN# to production #.

 

[dhanson865]

For context, 2000/w would be about 50% improvement in total unites produced over last year. That is astounding growth and only the beginning. At 4k, its almost 100% increase and around 50% increase in revenue. If they hit that by mid year, that will be Tesla has increased revs 50% going forward in just 6 months. This should only grow as they move into the end of the year and could end up around 100% growth. This is not uncommon for smaller businesses, but this is a company that is already has a market cap of $50B. Bring on the Y, Semi and Roadster! And of course the Pickup.

To put that in perspective a different way the 10,000 a week goal is more than the top selling US car sells per week. It only takes ~4,200 a week produced for US consumption to get on the top 20 US vehicles list, and ~7,500 a week allocated to the US to be the top selling car (that's car not vehicle, it would still be behind one SUV and 3 pickup trucks at that level).

Here is the top 5 from last months US sales

• Ford F - Series PU 68,243 (best selling vehicle)
• Chevrolet Silverado PU 42,282
• Nissan Rogue 38,119 (best selling SUV for Feb 2018, Toyota RAV4 outsold it for 2017)
• Dodge Ram PU 33,299
• Toyota Camry 30,865 (best selling Sedan)

So if they can top 4,200 a week before shipping any overseas they'll be popping up on best seller lists (top 20 overall, top 10 sedan).

If they can top 6,000 a week before shipping any overseas they'll be in the top 10 overall and top 5 sedan.

The quote below is that list extended to about top 20 length:

• Ford F - Series PU 68,243 (best selling vehicle)
• Chevrolet Silverado PU 42,282
• Nissan Rogue 38,119 (best selling SUV)
• Dodge Ram PU 33,299
• Toyota Camry 30,865 (best selling Sedan)
• Toyota RAV4 29,867
• Honda CR-V 25,852
• Honda Civic 25,816
• Chevrolet Equinox 24,053
• Toyota Corolla / Matrix 23,535
• Ford Escape 21,033
• Ford Explorer 20,860
• Honda Accord 19,753
• Nissan Altima 19,703
• Jeep Grand Cherokee 17,468
• Nissan Sentra 17,148
• Toyota Tacoma PU 16,817
• Ford Fusion 16,721
• Dodge Caravan 16,443 (best selling mini van)

 

[RTPEV]

No.
They will hit ~1900/w and all the fudsters will dance their dance of joy.

Totally missing the picture as they have been for 15 years already.

Well, and to add to their fire, even if they fall short of 2500/week at the GF (let's say 2000 for the last week in March), that really doesn't translate into deliveries until the end of April-ish, so March will "disappoint" the fudsters for sure, but the wave is coming.

 

[metier]

To put that in perspective a different way the 10,000 a week goal is more than the top selling US car sells per week. It only takes ~4,200 a week produced for US consumption to get on the top 20 US vehicles list, and ~7,500 a week allocated to the US to be the top selling car (that's car not vehicle, it would still be behind one SUV and 3 pickup trucks at that level).

Here is the top 5 from last months US sales

• Ford F - Series PU 68,243 (best selling vehicle)
• Chevrolet Silverado PU 42,282
• Nissan Rogue 38,119 (best selling SUV for Feb 2018, Toyota RAV4 outsold it for 2017)
• Dodge Ram PU 33,299
• Toyota Camry 30,865 (best selling Sedan)

So if they can top 4,200 a week before shipping any overseas they'll be popping up on best seller lists (top 20 overall, top 10 sedan).

If they can top 6,000 a week before shipping any overseas they'll be in the top 10 overall and top 5 sedan.

The quote below is that list extended to about top 20 length:

So you think the same people that are buying Ford Fusion, Nissan Sentry/Altima, Honda Accord are going to start buying $50,000 cars

 

[JRP3]

If so, then a moderate range pickup would be a great fit and a good sell for Tesla. @dhanson865 showed us how many F-150s Ford sells every year. It would need bigger motors to provide towing power, but Tesla could make it out-tow ICE trucks for lower cost.

The problem is towing kills range, so a "moderate" range pickup becomes a very short range vehicle when towing. As for the motors, if the semi can run with 4 Model 3 motors I can't see how a pickup would need larger motors.

 

[dhanson865]

So you think the same people that are buying Ford Fusion, Nissan Sentry/Altima, Honda Accord are going to start buying $50,000 cars

Did you forget the $35,000 version? How about state and federal tax credits?

Besides the list is by quantity not by market segment.

It doesn't have to be an Civic, Corolla, Accord, Altima, Sentra, Fusion owner, it can be an owner of anything from a Yugo to a Ferrari picking up a Model 3.

I'm coming from a Prius and a Leaf. Someone else is coming from a Mustang. Someone else is coming from a Yukahoe with 22s.

There are a lot of people wanting a Tesla that don't have one yet. Bring the price down and the production up and they will sell.

 

[metier]

Did you forget the $35,000 version? Besides the list is by quantity not by market segment.

It doesn't have to be an Civic, Corolla, Accord, Altima, Sentra, Fusion owner, it can be an owner of anything from a Yugo to a Ferrari picking up a Model 3.

I'm coming from a Prius and a Leaf. Someone else is coming from a Mustang. Someone else is coming from a Yukahoe with 22s.

There are a lot of people wanting a Tesla that don't have one yet. Bring the price down and the production up and they will sell.

Is Tesla selling a $35,000 version, so far I haven't seen one. Maybe when they do then you can start thinking about the top 20 automobiles. Also civic, escape, fusion are all in upper teens to lower 20's and people will magically find an extra 15-20,000 for a Tesla. And more and more people are purchasing SUV/cross over vehicles

 

[jgillispie]

Is Tesla selling a $35,000 version, so far I haven't seen one. Maybe when they do then you can start thinking about the top 20 automobiles. Also civic, escape, fusion are all in upper teens to lower 20's and people will magically find an extra 15-20,000 for a Tesla. And more and more people are purchasing SUV/cross over vehicles

Add the trips to the gas station over 8 years and you're pretty much the same or worse. Total cost of ownership.

 

[dhanson865]

Is Tesla selling a $35,000 version, so far I haven't seen one. Maybe when they do then you can start thinking about the top 20 automobiles.

Congrats, follow the thread backward and you'll see we were talking about the future when Tesla will be producing 4,200 cars a week, 7,500 cars a week, 10,000 cars a week.

Do you really think they'll get to 10,000 cars a week without bringing out the $35,000 trim?

 

[30seconds]

Is Tesla selling a $35,000 version, so far I haven't seen one. Maybe when they do then you can start thinking about the top 20 automobiles. Also civic, escape, fusion are all in upper teens to lower 20's and people will magically find an extra 15-20,000 for a Tesla. And more and more people are purchasing SUV/cross over vehicles

The production is for WW markets, not just US

 

[metier]

Congrats, follow the thread backward and you'll see we were talking about the future when Tesla will be producing 4,200 cars a week, 7,500 cars a week, 10,000 cars a week.

Do you really think they'll get to 10,000 cars a week without bringing out the $35,000 trim?

No I do not think they will get to 10,000 cars a without a $35,000 car, but again I don't think they will sell a $35,000 car

 

[metier]

The production is for WW markets, not just US

And NUMMI under Toyota and GM was able to crank out 6000 cars a week, and Tesla is going to do 10,000 from this factory. I'll wait and see

 

[SageBrush]

deleted

 

[metier]

Add the trips to the gas station over 8 years and you're pretty much the same or worse. Total cost of ownership.

And how much more will it cost them each month to insure the Tesla?

 

[SageBrush]

And how much more will it cost them each month to insure the Tesla?

YMMV. I expect to to pay about the same as my Prius Prime

 

[jgillispie]

And how much more will it cost them each month to insure the Tesla?

Well for comparison my 1.5 yr old Model S 75D is ~$100 more per 6 months than the 6yr old Genesis Coupe($32k new) I had before it. I think it's a safe assumption the Model 3 shouldn't cost as much as the S to insure.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Is Tesla selling a $35,000 version, so far I haven't seen one. Maybe when they do then you can start thinking about the top 20 automobiles. Also civic, escape, fusion are all in upper teens to lower 20's and people will magically find an extra 15-20,000 for a Tesla. And more and more people are purchasing SUV/cross over vehicles

As a current owner of 2004 accord going for first production model 3, don't worry about it too much.

 

[navguy12]

And how much more will it cost them each month to insure the Tesla?

My insurance company told me for the same coverage I have now, it will be $80 a year less than my 2008 Prius. YMMV.

 

[MP3Mike]

And NUMMI under Toyota and GM was able to crank out 6000 cars a week, and Tesla is going to do 10,000 from this factory. I'll wait and see

Technically they are planning to do about 12,000 week from the factory. 10k Model 3, 2k Model S&X.

 

[jkirkwood001]

The problem is towing kills range, so a "moderate" range pickup becomes a very short range vehicle when towing. As for the motors, if the semi can run with 4 Model 3 motors I can't see how a pickup would need larger motors.

I hear you on the range issue (in fact, why not build it on the S 100D drivetrain to save R & D?), but does the semi seriously use Model 3 motors?