Highest production VIN in the wild

[mongo]

There's nothing stopping Tesla from keeping the VINs off their NHTSA-facing servers for the time being.

Right, I'm joking that that is the query they are going to run for the big reveal. Or they are back filling all the the unused VINs so the highest won't move.
It does seems they are avoiding AWD and P VINs (at least I have not heard of many). Technically, they can back update unused RWD VIN sequence number to P or AWD (super technically, they can use the same sequence number if the full 17 is still different)

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla never claimed VIN registration as a metric of anything

I didn't say they did.
I said the purpose would be to tweak the market.

Trust me, I'd love to see a short squeeze. But not via trickery

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

I dunno this is really weird guys. No actual VIN sightings/photos above 30k in almost a month now?

If Tesla is anywhere near 5k a week then they are warehousing ALOT of cars and I don’t know where they could be doing that without someone leaking about some massive warehouse with literally tens of thousands of M3’s!

Either that or they have shut down production but again would think that would have leaked out as well.

Don’t buy that all production is going to Canada currently either as I’m sure some higher VINs up north would have been spotted/posted by now!

Final option is they are sending M3’s out all over the country to be warehoused somewhere close to the final buyer. Then come July 1st they release tens of thousands of cars all at once but that would probably overwhelm the few stores/service centres they do have - all while they are currently downsizing the store/service centre staff??

Something doesn’t add up. I hope it’s good news come July 1st but I’m not so sure anymore.

Would it really be worth all this just to miss hitting 200k in the USA before the end of Q2?

US should have changed the federal rebate to 500,000 by now anyway. Reward the company that has done more than all others to promote sustainable transport..don’t punish them because they have done a much better job than all the other lazy automakers! Look how many jobs Tesla has created!

Write your congressmen guys! I would but I’m not an American.

Relax Sonny, coworker just got his delivery set for July 6 with 311xx

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Relax Sonny, coworker just got his delivery set for July 6 with 311xx

BTW, just a gut feel but we're about to be drowning in VINs again (give it 1 week or less). I'm guessing they'll be cranking out 4k steady and up to 5.5k spikes per week for the next 3-4 weeks.

 

[bambam4171]

I dunno what you guys are talking about, there are many VINs between 30 and 42k already?
Tesla Model 3 Invites - Highest VIN

 

[teddyg]

That’s great sliced bread...but we should be closer to 511xx by now

 

[teddyg]

Thanks for the link BamBam...would prefer to see actual pictures of VINS as we have had before on this thread but I’ll take your link as a sign of some hope! Cheers

 

[mongo]

That’s great sliced bread...but we should be closer to 511xx by now

Model 3 production:
Q3: 260
Q4: 2,400
Q1 : <10k
So they used <13k VINs before this quarter, highest number registered is 54k, that leaves 41k available. With 12 weeks of production, they could average 3,400 for the entire quarter and not run out. With 50k as the threshold, that is 3,083/ wk for the full 12 weeks.

Now factor in they don't need to provide NHTSA tracking until they delivery the vehicle, and that they are likely delaying the 200kth car until Q3...

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Model 3 production:
Q3: 260
Q4: 2,400
Q1 : <10k
So they used <13k VINs before this quarter, highest number registered is 54k, that leaves 41k available. With 12 weeks of production, they could average 3,400 for the entire quarter and not run out. With 50k as the threshold, that is 3,083/ wk for the full 12 weeks.

Now factor in they don't need to provide NHTSA tracking until they delivery the vehicle, and that they are likely delaying the 200kth car until Q3...

All signs, I mean...ALL SIGNS....even signs you wouldn't think are signs, but when you dig a little, are really signs...point to the 200,000th US Tesla delivery happening sometime IMMEDIATELY after June 30th.

I'm thinking, whoever has a delivery scheduled for the morning of July 1st (if they even do Sundays) will be number 200K. If not, the first delivery Monday the 2nd will be the "big one".

and then the next 6 months are going to be a blur.

 

[tomas]

I should think if you are trying to stay below the 200k, you do it by some margin. The IRS also doesn’t like to be gamed, and are specialist at audit. Shipping #200k July 1 doesn’t have great optics. And if for some reason the irs were to disagree with how Tesla keeps records, I should think theyd want some slack.

Having said that, I would agree regarding all signs pointing towards tax credit optimization as reason for slowdown in US deliveries.

PS my second model 3 delivery expected first 2 weeks of July. So I have a dog in the hunt.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

I should think if you are trying to stay below the 200k, you do it by some margin. The IRS also doesn’t like to be gamed, and are specialist at audit. Shipping #200k July 1 doesn’t have great optics. And if for some reason the irs were to disagree with how Tesla keeps records, I should think theyd want some slack.

Having said that, I would agree regarding all signs pointing towards tax credit optimization as reason for slowdown in US deliveries.

PS my second model 3 delivery expected first 2 weeks of July. So I have a dog in the hunt.

Bottom line, they've sent cars to Canada as the orders got filled. The rest of us speculate it's the 200k thing because it's convenient. In Grand schema of things, will 1 quarter make a big difference? In short, no.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I should think if you are trying to stay below the 200k, you do it by some margin. The IRS also doesn’t like to be gamed, and are specialist at audit. Shipping #200k July 1 doesn’t have great optics. And if for some reason the irs were to disagree with how Tesla keeps records, I should think theyd want some slack.

Having said that, I would agree regarding all signs pointing towards tax credit optimization as reason for slowdown in US deliveries.

PS my second model 3 delivery expected first 2 weeks of July. So I have a dog in the hunt.

Not to mention, Elon has mentioned that any time now, US stores will have Model 3's available for test drives. Those vehicles and VINs do not count towards 200K until they've been sold to consumers. Same goes for any S and X floor vehicles.

Maybe June has more floor models delivered than in the past.....

 

[mongo]

n Grand schema of things, will 1 quarter make a big difference? In short, no.

It makes a difference of $3,750 or $1,875 to the 180k+* purchasers who are going to get additional tax credits. It also makes a difference in people's view of Tesla.

*(approximate number (5k/wk *12 wk*3 months) due to US vs world, ramp rate, S/X production and distribution, tax eligibility, phase of the moon)

 

[Thomas Edison]

It makes a difference of $3,750 or $1,875 to the 180k+* purchasers who are going to get additional tax credits. It also makes a difference in people's view of Tesla.

*(approximate number (5k/wk *12 wk*3 months) due to US vs world, ramp rate, S/X production and distribution, tax eligibility, phase of the moon)

Which translates to increased revenue in the last quarter of this year of about half a billion dollars from people choosing upgrades to get their cars quicker/at a discount.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Which translates to increased revenue in the last quarter of this year of about half a billion dollars from people choosing upgrades to get their cars quicker/at a discount.

Everyone so negative today. Sure it makes a quarter makes a big difference for Tesla today, but not to US government which can print money and is the one sponsoring the tax credit. It's a drop in a bucket for government.

 

[mongo]

Everyone so negative today. Sure it makes a quarter makes a big difference for Tesla today, but not to US government which can print money and is the one sponsoring the tax credit. It's a drop in a bucket for government.

Oh, government scale!!!!
Yeah, less than a billion in revenue change. Significant for Tesla via option upgrades, but not for the national budget (4.4 trillion in 2019).

 

[JeffK]

Everyone so negative today. Sure it makes a quarter makes a big difference for Tesla today, but not to US government which can print money and is the one sponsoring the tax credit. It's a drop in a bucket for government.

I actually think people are going to use this against Tesla and against the EV tax credit. People like to sensationalize the numbers not to mention that Q3 and Q4 will be the largest number of people getting the full tax credit in the history of the program.

People are going to call it a govt handout which mostly benefits Tesla and all sorts of nonsense. I wouldn't be surprised if there's effort after this year to kill it.

 

[mongo]

I actually think people are going to use this against Tesla and against the EV tax credit. People like to sensationalize the numbers not to mention that Q3 and Q4 will be the largest number of people getting the full tax credit in the history of the program.

People are going to call it a govt handout which mostly benefits Tesla and all sorts of nonsense. I wouldn't be surprised if there's effort after this year to kill it.

You may be right,
There was an effort this year to kill it...
Given it is not a refundable credit, people have less to complain about though...

 

[RobStark]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's effort after this year to kill it.

There will be an effort to kill it or revise it so that GM and Tesla customers can benefit.

The status quo means almost all the credits go to help foreign automakers sell cars.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

There will be an effort to kill it or revise it so that GM and Tesla customers can benefit.

The status quo means almost all the credits go to help foreign automakers sell cars.

If someone were to bring this info to the WH in the context of tariffs, I bet they'd extend the Credit.... hhhmmm.....