Highest VINs reported. Lets come up with our own Q3 guidance

[pGo]

I thought to start this thread keeping in mind that guidance is as valuable as q2 results. Didn't find much numbers related and hence new discussion.

Highest VIN reported on TM forum as of Aug 1 is 18790. If we think Tesla made/sold around 5300 cars in Q2, is it safe to say 7000 is a good number that Tesla could deliver in Q3?

Considering GP's comment about over 500/week production in July, we are anyways looking at minimum 6300 cars. Anything above this number is a good guidance IMO. Thoughts?

 

[Lloyd]

I'm not sure that vin's are necessarily in sequence. 17252 is supposed to be delivered tomorrow, but delayed.

 

[blakegallagher]

I think (hope) that in q3 they express the likelihood of adding another line for the Model S/X because demand continues to surpass their initial estimates. Any idea on how long it would take to put in another production line? I know it would not be easy but replicating an existing line has got to be orders of magnitude easier than building the first one.. right?

Edit: I think that they will be looking to add another line in the second half of 2014

 

[evmile]

When I was at the factory to pick up may car on the last week in June they had produced 600 cars that week. So they are capable of 600 whether they continue to do that is not clear. Also the European production will cause some strange numbers since they can't count the cars as sold until the European customer take delivery which will be about a month longer than US deliveries. Once they get the pipeline going to Europe it will be less of an issue but I think they will take a hit in the June/July numbers.

 

[pGo]

I'm sure the car will be delivered in Q3.

At 600/week, Tesla can make 7500 of those. Do you think they will guide 7000 for Q3?

 

[DaveT]

I'm sure the car will be delivered in Q3.

At 600/week, Tesla can make 7500 of those. Do you think they will guide 7000 for Q3?

Tesla will likely give guidance for 2013 and not just Q3. And the guidance they give will likely be lower than what they think they can confidently achieve. My guess is that they'll raise guidance to 22,000-23,000 delivered for 2013.

 

[DrDave]

I'm sure the car will be delivered in Q3.

At 600/week, Tesla can make 7500 of those. Do you think they will guide 7000 for Q3?

I wouldn't count on 600/week for targeting Q3 build.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Delivery VIN numbers should be captured over here: Model S Delivery Update

I'm going to close this thread so we don't try to do the same thing in two locations.