So, this question continued to percolate in my head, and I realized there's a dynamic at work. We're talking about collector value here, and you have to analyze what categories of collectors-as-such would want to have a Roadster in their collection.
1. Nostalgia collectors. These are what drive the bulk of the "classic cars" market, and they are basically people either wanting to recapture their youth, or they are wanting to finally own that car they lusted for (but never got) in their youth. This is what made the Ford Mustang the massive collectible that it is among baby boomers. (I'm GenX myself, so I long for either the curvy Corvette Stingray that was so cool when I was a little kid, or the sleek Pontiac Firebird that I kicked the tires on but didn't actually get when I was just out of high school.) However, the original Roadster was never common enough, it never held a large enough place in the public consciousness to have any impact with this category of collectors. It'll never happen.
2. Brand collectors. Just like there are Porsche collectors, Ferrari collectors and Corvette collectors, I assume that if Tesla continues to produce exciting cars there someday will be Tesla collectors. Obviously that's not going to happen for A While. The company and brand has to continue to grow and develop, they have to produce enough models and variants to be interesting to collect, and probably a new generation of collectors will have to grow up with the brand.
3. EV collectors. I don't think this category has any meaningful existence now, and it's only speculation on my part that EV collecting may someday become a thing. I do see a huge transition taking place in the automotive world as we go to electric power, and it seems plausible that some people will mark that change in eras by collecting the cars that represent it. If you want an iconic "early modern BEV" that epitomizes the very beginning of this transition, then your options are basically: GM EV1, Toyota RAV4 EV, AC Propulsion tzero, Venturi Fétish, and Tesla Roadster. The EV1 is unobtainium, RAV4 is boring, the tzero and Fétish are obscure unicorns, and that basically leaves the Tesla Roadster as the one thing you
must have on your shopping list.
4. Jay Leno. Of course I don't just mean
the Jay Leno, but I'm including anybody like him who has the money, time and interest to indulge an eclectic collection of interesting and perhaps oddball vehicles that don't necessarily fit into any neat category. This is the only category of collector that is likely to want a Roadster in their garage today, in 2018. The problem here is that there aren't a whole lot of Jay Lenos in the world, and most of them presumably snagged a Roadster already when it was in production. Occasionally you will have new Jay Lenos appearing (perhaps consciously inspired by the example of
the Jay leno), and occasionally you will have some passing out (or, inevitably, passing
away), but the turnover rate is pretty low.
So in summary… Nostalgia is unlikely to ever be a factor. The Lenos of the world are out there, but seem unlikely to ever drive Roadster demand much beyond where it already is. That leaves category 2 and possibly maybe 3, the Tesla collectors and the EV collectors, and those will take time to appear. It'll require a generational shift. My prediction is that, assuming Tesla continues to be a viable brand (if not independent company!) well into the future, at some point the Roadster will become a highly valued collectible, but I'm not talking about a year from now or even five years from now. It'll be 15, 20 or 25 years for something like that to really develop.
As for myself, if I had unlimited resources I would be another Jay Leno with a gigantic garage and dozens of eccentric and exotic vehicles. I don't have unlimited resources, so I have a 2010 Tesla Roadster and a 1949 Dodge Power Wagon. Since those nail down the extreme opposite ends of the automotive spectrum, I feel like my collection at least matches Leno's in breadth, if not in depth.
