Travelers start out at their homes with 100% charge. Typically drive at highway speeds for around 4 hours, run their batteries low than pull into a supercharger to have bio break/lunch. Most all converge around the same time.
Except, exactly not. There’s no statistical relevance (let alone accuracy) to the variables necessary to support the above assertion.
—There’s no way the majority of 2020 Tesla drivers are charging to 100% before their trip. The new average Tesla driver simply doesn’t trip plan like old dogs do and, if we’re honest, the average Tesla driver doesn’t need to. (In other words, it’s unlikely drivers start out with the same amount of range)
—The range of different models combined with all types of driving styles leads to a practical range that’s statistically pretty wide and flat (in other words, it’s unlikely two travelers leaving from the same place will get to the same place)
—Because travelers are all different, the practical range of comfortable leg duration is also going to be wide and flat (in other words, there’s no way the average driver is going 4 hours in a stint)
—The Bay Area and the LA basin are both huge, with upwards of
hours of travel to get from one side of the other, so some average time per leg in between the two is going to be very dependent on the starting point and thus will land drivers in very different places for an equivalent amount of driving.
—Following the theme, holiday 5 travelers vary greatly in timeframes, so the peak travel windows for holiday 5 travel are wide and cover multiple days. One cannot significantly outsmart all the other travelers without what most would consider significant inconvenience, like traveling late at night, or planning on stopping at known low traffic chargers like casa de fruita.
As anyone who has actually driven the 5 during holiday travel knows, all superchargers are busy across the wide window of travel hours, over multiple days. And, if one charger is full, most likely so are the chargers upstream and downstream. That simply how it’s worked to date. To be fair, my data set only includes every major holiday since 2015 on the 5 in a Tesla (and near monthly otherwise, at least in the before times); perhaps someone else’s data set is more comprehensive and also somehow justifies relevance of the early days when we had very few options on the 5.
The good news is that the whole point of a 56 stall charger is is to absorb the inevitable surges NOT have to think about where and when to stop.