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how accurate is delivery date once you receive VIN number?

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Hello all,

After waiting for few weeks, I finally received my VIN number for the model 3 I ordered! It is shown to be delivered on Dec 24th X-mas eve!! I am excited to have the car as my Xmas gift! But I wonder how accurate is delivery date once it is shown online? Thank you.
 
Heck I just want to know when a delivery date will show. I've had a VIN (in source and on MVPA) for a week, but the manage page still says "Estimated Delivery: 4 - 6 weeks from order placed date"
 
I'm in texas. Ordered 11/16 and got my vin about two weeks ago with a delivery date of 12/18. I actually got a call from my local service center and was told that if you've completed all your account stuff you can actually pick up as soon as it arrives from California. Not sure if Canada has any rules around that but maybe you will end up getting it a little early!