How autonomous vehicles will change our mindset

[Dutchie]

Interesting discussion. “Why do pedestrians don’t jaywalk - because there might be a driver out there who is crazy and doesn’t watch out” In a world where there are only autonomous cars everyone would jaywalking heck pedestrians would not even watch out because they know that autonomous cars would stop anyway. ‘The most profound change is not for the autonomous cars but for other member in traffic.”

 

[diplomat33]

Interesting discussion. “Why do pedestrians don’t jaywalk - because there might be a driver out there who is crazy and doesn’t watch out” In a world where there are only autonomous cars everyone would jaywalking heck pedestrians would not even watch out because they know that autonomous cars would stop anyway. ‘The most profound change is not for the autonomous cars but for other member in traffic.”

I am not sure I agree that pedestrians don't jaywalk because they know human drivers might run them over. Certainly, most humans know not to cross the street in front of traffic. We teach young children to look both ways before crossing a street. But in big cities like NYC, where people are in a hurry, they still jay walk all the time despite the risk. And I am pretty sure human drivers are still legally expected not to hit jay walkers. However, it is true that people would probably jay walk more with AVs if they knew that AVs were incapable of hitting them.

Obviously, we don't want AVs to be completely paralyzed in the middle of the road at the mere sight of a pedestrian or cyclist. But AVs should be safe around vulnerable road users. They should never hit them. If AVs reduce the number of pedestrians or cyclists hit or killed by cars, that's a good thing. I don't like the idea that AVs should be made less safe just because humans could take advantage of them. The solution is not to make AVs be dicks on the road. The solution is to punish humans who jay walk or purposely block traffic.

 

[Microterf]

I am not sure I agree that pedestrians don't jaywalk because they know human drivers might run them over. Certainly, most humans know not to cross the street in front of traffic. We teach young children to look both ways before crossing a street. But in big cities like NYC, where people are in a hurry, they still jay walk all the time despite the risk. And I am pretty sure human drivers are still legally expected not to hit jay walkers. However, it is true that people would probably jay walk more with AVs if they knew that AVs were incapable of hitting them.

Obviously, we don't want AVs to be completely paralyzed in the middle of the road at the mere sight of a pedestrian or cyclist. But AVs should be safe around vulnerable road users. They should never hit them. If AVs reduce the number of pedestrians or cyclists hit or killed by cars, that's a good thing. I don't like the idea that AVs should be made less safe just because humans could take advantage of them. The solution is not to make AVs be dicks on the road. The solution is to punish humans who jay walk or purposely block traffic.

Maybe the traffic cops instead of being laid off will transition into pedestrian police.

 

[voyager]

Car ownership is more persistent than industry watchers want us to believe, despite the substantial costs involved. Tailoring cars to buyers’ individual taste, adding new creature comforts and gadgets ADAS a.o.) and providing the sort of performance unimaginable a few years ago, are the latest in keeping a personal car high on people’s wish list. That's not to say that there can be more types of catering to personal mobility. That is why ADS developers count on ‘mobility as a ride-service’ to replace carmakers’ wasteful hardware focus, which is aimed at selling as many cars as possible, Tesla no exception thus far.

Two points of interest and concern:
1. The business model of ride-hail providers like Cruise and Waymo that count on driverless deployment. Will it be cost-competitive? The WSJ wrote that it is so costly that having a human driver may be cheaper.
2. An AV at your disposal may replace car ownership. No doubt the longer-term goal of ADS developers: get rid of the excess rolling hardware that's maybe used 5% of the time and that clogs up infrastructure.

However, 1. and 2. form pro’s for smaller EV/AVs, particularly in and around cities. People want an AV with the seat-capacity needed at the moment of request. Why pay more? Since car occupancy is 1.2 person on average, we may eventually look forward to having less vehicle mass & size on the road per person carried.

Bring down vehicle mass & size per person carried will benefit traffic throughput and safety, response and transit times, costs of operating, point-to-point... and the environment. Need more capacity? Call in for an MPV or the 'big bruiser' SUV.

 

[diplomat33]

People want an AV with the seat-capacity needed at the moment of request. Why pay more? Since car occupancy is 1.2 person on average, we may eventually look forward to having less vehicle mass & size on the road per person carried.

But what about those situations where more than 1.2 people want to go somewhere together? For example, a mom and dad want to take their 2 kids out for ice cream or to the movies, a family of 5 want to go on vacation, 3-4 college friends want to go out on the town, etc... A small AV that only holds 2 people won't work for these cases unless they take separate AVs. But that is just replacing 1 bigger AV with 2-3 small AVs. I am not sure that is solving the problem any better. So I think we will still need larger AVs for those cases when a larger group want to go somewhere together. There will still be a need for bigger AVs. Ideally, a variety of different AVs should be available with low wait time, so you can summon the right AV for your specific trip. If you are by yourself and need to go to the groceries, summon a 1-2 person AV. If you are a family of 4 wanting to go to the movies, summon a SUV-like AV.

 

[ThomasD]

There is also the chance that the type of vehicle you need may not be available when you want or need it to be.

 

[EVNow]

I've no doubt that MobilEye will have L4 consumer cars in China earlier than Waymo has their robotaxi in top 50 metros in US.

 

[EVNow]

Ideally, a variety of different AVs should be available with low wait time, so you can summon the right AV for your specific trip. If you are by yourself and need to go to the groceries, summon a 1-2 person AV. If you are a family of 4 wanting to go to the movies, summon a SUV-like AV.

All this with high utilization to make AVs a business - not just a R&D project.

Add to that issues with child seats ...

 

[diplomat33]

All this with high utilization to make AVs a business - not just a R&D project.

Nobody is looking at AVs as a "R&D project". Everybody is looking to make AVs a business. It's why so many companies are investing billions into developing AVs. But in order to make AVs into a successful business, you first need safe and reliable autonomous driving that can scale to a large enough area. Everybody is working on precisely that so that they can make AVs into a business as soon as possible. But nobody has 100% solved AVs yet. But believe me, it will happen. And whoever does achieve safe, reliable and scalable AVs will have no problem turning AVs into a successful business.

Add to that issues with child seats ...

What issues? Waymo already has child seats in their AVs running in Chandler with no issues that I am aware of.

 

[EVNow]

What issues? Waymo already has child seats in their AVs running in Chandler with no issues that I am aware of.

Already installed - then, nobody can sit there. If they are not installed, it would’ve a pain to install for a short trip.

You need to come out of Waymo PR mode and think about practical problems rationally.

 

[diplomat33]

Already installed - then, nobody can sit there. If they are not installed, it would’ve a pain to install for a short trip.

It is installed so that a mother can a take ride with their kid and it is used all the time. The whole reason Waymo installed child seats in the first place is because they got feedback from customers asking for one.

You need to come out of Waymo PR mode and think about practical problems rationally.

And you need to come out of your Waymo hatred.

 

[diplomat33]

Already installed - then, nobody can sit there. If they are not installed, it would’ve a pain to install for a short trip.

It's not a big deal. Yes, it would be a pain to install for a short trip. That is why it is more practical to simply pre-install them. You lose 1 seat for adults but the Chrysler Pacifica still has enough remaining seats. And by pre-installing the child seat, you provide an important amenity for mothers who need to take their small child with them. So it makes perfect sense to pre-install a child seat. It is not "Waymo PR", It is common sense.

 

[ThomasD]

Fly into Tampa and take one of these 45 minutes to my parents house. They should put bike and mobility scooter carriers on these vehicles At 855 He talks about sensor location and says sensor location on our L5 vehicle.