How confident do you feel about the sales of Model Y?

[Maximilien]

Well, in the presentation, Elon said he is confident that the sales of Model Y will exceed Model S, X, and 3 combined.

I am a bit skeptical and I don't know why he said it, but for some reason, I think Model 3 will still exceed the sales of Model Y.
Model 3 is cheaper, quicker and has longer range. I feel the Model 3 will stay top. What do you think? Do you agree with what Elon said?

Time will tell but let's speculate!

Correct me wrong, if I heard it wrong. I think I heard it near the end of the presentation.

 

[sreams]

Slightly cheaper, slightly quicker, and slightly more range is not what sells cars at this level. Hatchback, storage, optional seating for a couple of extra kids... that's what sells. Take a look at what the most popular family vehicles in the United States are. They aren't sedans with trunks.

Personally, I prefer my 3. But this will outsell my 3 by a lot.

 

[Maximilien]

Slightly cheaper, slightly quicker, and slightly more range is not what sells cars at this level. Hatchback, storage, optional seating for a couple of extra kids... that's what sells. Take a look at what the most popular family vehicles in the United States are. They aren't sedans with trunks.

Personally, I prefer my 3. But this will outsell my 3 by a lot.

I didn't think about that. Thanks for the response.

 

[Brave Ulysses]

Slightly cheaper, slightly quicker, and slightly more range is not what sells cars at this level. Hatchback, storage, optional seating for a couple of extra kids... that's what sells. Take a look at what the most popular family vehicles in the United States are. They aren't sedans with trunks.

Personally, I prefer my 3. But this will outsell my 3 by a lot.

Yet, he actually didn’t show or demonstrate any of those “advantages”.

It really does not look different/larger enough from the 3.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

My theory is it will sell like hot cakes for a bunch of reasons.

People are buying these ugly cross over things left, and right.
Kids are pissed off about global warming.
Parents have this weird obsessed need to do things for their kids.

With that being said it's not going to have hundreds of thousands of reservations nor did Tesla make that a goal.

Instead it's going to be one of those things that simply multiplies.

 

[sreams]

Yet, he actually didn’t show or demonstrate any of those “advantages”.

That's a different issue (if it's an issue at all). I don't think Tesla/Elon wanted to draw too much attention to this car. The priority at the moment is to sell 3s.

 

[Brave Ulysses]

I think they missed the mark.

This is not the electric vehicle that will switch Subaru Outback owners, Jeep owners, Ford Explorer owners, 4Runner owners, etc.

This is basically tesla’s Subaru Impreza (not even the Crosstrek).

Sales will be brisk upfront, but it’s not SUV enough to be game changing in America.

 

[Brave Ulysses]

That's a different issue (if it's an issue at all). I don't think Tesla/Elon wanted to draw too much attention to this car. The priority at the moment is to sell 3s.

They probably make more money on a $2,500 interest free deposit/loan than they do on the $35k Model 3

 

[dmurphy]

This thing is going to crush the market.

I drive a Cadillac XT5; my wife drives a Buick Enclave.

The Enclave is cavernous - seats 7. Cargo room is 23.6 ft/2 with the 3rd row up; 58 ft/2 with the 3rd row down, and a massive 97.6 ft/2 with both the 2nd and 3rd row seats down.

The XT5 is smaller - seats 5. 30 ft/2 of cargo room with the 2nd row up; 63 ft/2 with the seat down.

The Model Y seats either 5 or 7 - no specs yet on cargo room with the 2nd row up; but with it down, it's 66 ft/2. More than the XT5, but not as big as the Enclave (obviously.). Still lots of room though.

Enclave Avenir AWD w/ tech package (adaptive cruise etc) is ~$55k + taxes/fees.
XT5 Platinum AWD is ~$63k + taxes/fees.
Model Y, customized the way I'd want it to replace my XT5 - Pearl White, AWD, Long Range, 5 seats, Autopilot + FSD: $61k + no sales tax (NJ.)

We could, honestly, replace BOTH the Enclave and XT5 with Model Ys. We'd lose a bit of cargo on the Enclave, but it's really not that critical.

The midsize Lux SUV market won't know what hit it. You can run similar exercises with the RX350, MDX, Q7, X5, XC90 etc. Very competitive with all of them.

THIS is the market Tesla will win with. The Model 3 really competes with the performance/lux sedan market. The midsize family SUV market though? That's where the cheese is. Look around at your local Costco and see what you see ..... Tesla's going to make a killing - they just have to execute the Y well.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I think they missed the mark.

This is not the electric vehicle that will switch Subaru Outback owners, Jeep owners, Ford Explorer owners, 4Runner owners, etc.

This is basically tesla’s Subaru Impreza (not even the Crosstrek).

Sales will be brisk upfront, but it’s not SUV enough to be game changing in America.

People like larger!

 

[jbcarioca]

People like larger!

You should have said "some people like larger". Check out @dmurphy above. Then look at sales in US, Canada, Germany, UK, China and so on.
Then you'll see that they have just entered the sweetest global spot.
How quickly can Tesla scale?,
How many people will leave their ICE for this vs the dozens upon dozens of BEV entrants to this market between now and 2025?
Elon's prediction for more than the S3X combined is hardly hubris.

For reference just look at S3X market penetration anywhere they are sold vs similarly positioned ICE.

Boring? Only the presentation, not the vehicle.

 

[ecarfan]

Disagree. The Y is clearly targeted at a massive market segment: the mid-size SUV/CUV “crossover” vehicle that is extremely popular. It’s a market segment that is far larger than mid-size sedans.

I think the Y is going to easily outsell the 3, which is selling very well and which will continue to sell well as more people are exposed to it directly via friends and family.

The Y is the true game changer, not the 3.

I think they missed the mark.

This is not the electric vehicle that will switch Subaru Outback owners, Jeep owners, Ford Explorer owners, 4Runner owners, etc.

This is basically tesla’s Subaru Impreza (not even the Crosstrek).

Sales will be brisk upfront, but it’s not SUV enough to be game changing in America.

 

[Big Toys]

It may sell, IF no one else enters the market at/near the target price point. Sales will tank when everyone else beyond fanbois and enthusiasts discovers that they can't get service, and costs to repair are on par with Ferrari.

 

[HugoBoss]

I will sell, look what what people are driving now. Small crossovers that would pass as hatches a few years back. Elon ain't dumb

 

[Brave Ulysses]

Disagree. The Y is clearly targeted at a massive market segment: the mid-size SUV/CUV “crossover” vehicle that is extremely popular. It’s a market segment that is far larger than mid-size sedans.

I think the Y is going to easily outsell the 3, which is selling very well and which will continue to sell well as more people are exposed to it directly via friends and family.

The Y is the true game changer, not the 3.

It will outsell the 3 because it appeals to the same slice of the market that the 3 did. Actually, a lot of people bought a sedan because it was the 3, not because they wanted a sedan. They wanted a Y. It just wasn’t available yet. I think once the Y comes out, 3 demand falls off a cliff.

But driving every weekend from Denver to the ski resorts..... you see what really sells for families. And it’s cherokees, 4runners outbacks and explorers. This car is not remotely close to being an adequate or desirable alternative to those. And that is a shame as those are the true gas guzzlers of the world.

 

[tomas]

It will outsell the 3 because it appeals to the same slice of the market that the 3 did. Actually, a lot of people bought a sedan because it was the 3, not because they wanted a sedan. They wanted a Y.

But driving every weekend from Denver to the ski resorts..... you see what really sells for families. And it’s cherokees, 4runners outbacks and explorers. This car is not remotely close to being an adequate or desirable alternative to those. And that is a shame as those are the true gas guzzlers of the world.

Ahem... most of the world ain’t driving to ski resorts.

 

[Big Toys]

I will sell, look what what people are driving now. Small crossovers that would pass as hatches a few years back. Elon ain't dumb

He may not be dumb, but customers will soon figure out they can't get service for a broken car without taking a day off from work to drive the hour or so to get there. The good news is that the next available weekend appointment is in 3 months, so there is plenty of time to plan. This is will be Tesla's undoing once a competitor enters the market, and they are coming. Pay upfront for promised features that never come? Wait till he pisses off 500,000 people a year. Hey, I enjoy my car, but I can see the end game.

 

[abasile]

But driving every weekend from Denver to the ski resorts..... you see what really sells for families. And it’s cherokees, 4runners outbacks and explorers. This car is not remotely close to being an adequate or desirable alternative to those. And that is a shame as those are the true gas guzzlers of the world.

It seems to me that the larger Model X would be more desirable to such families. The main issue is price.

It may sell, IF no one else enters the market at/near the target price point. Sales will tank when everyone else beyond fanbois and enthusiasts discovers that they can't get service, and costs to repair are on par with Ferrari.

Tesla does need to address its service issues, but you lost me on the Ferrari repair cost comparison. If anything, Tesla's out-of-warranty repair costs have come down over the years.

 

[Brave Ulysses]

Ahem... most of the world ain’t driving to ski resorts.

Most of the world isn’t driving BMWs and Audi’s yet that is what everyone here is comparing this to.

And you seem to miss the point..... this isn’t a mass market suv in America. It’s the equivalent of the Subaru Impreza. Which the 3 should have covered. In 2 years the 3 is going to serve very little purpose and yet Tesla is still going to have a huge void in their lineup for the suv market.

 

[Brave Ulysses]

It seems to me that the larger Model X would be more desirable to such families. The main issue is price.

.

THE issue is price. $88k and up is not the market. But there is a massive market in the $40k-60k market. And the Y doesn’t offer the capabilities and features needed to serve that market