How confident do you feel about the sales of Model Y?

[dmurphy]

You correctly pointed out the advantages of the Y compared to your 2 current vehicles. What remains to be seen is how Tesla will take care of QC of the Y, because if service center issues persist, that will be a major hurdle for Tesla to overcome to gain public acceptance.

To be honest - that's a MUCH simpler problem to solve in my book than building a quality, compelling vehicle. They've got 18 months to do it, too. At least they've acknowledged there's a problem in that department.

And let's keep it on an even keel - it's not like people love dealerships, either. There's a reason they're called "stealerships."

 

[Olle]

The pattern should be obvious by now; Tesla dominates every market segment that it enters, especially S and 3 are unbelievable successes relative their segments. 3 is extra phenomenal with such sales figures in the now collapsing sedan market. Y is going into a much much bigger, and growing, segment. Y has the price/performance to compete head on with ICE now. That's a 100 million units/year market. The deck is stacked in Tesla's favor, now it's just about how many Y they can produce.

 

[HugoBoss]

We just had our 4th child, we have a model X that is used for family outings and trips. I'm glad this has 7 seats. My wife drops kids to school and I pick them up. By the time our 4th goes to school the 7 seater model y is perfect. It will only be used to get them from school. This is perfect cause I ccant spend model X mo ey again.... It's too much and I'm not rich. So ya people with family will buy this. Not everyone wants big cars.

 

[Brando]

IN 2020 2nd half we shall have to wait and see what the real competition actually is.

So far I'm not sure anyone else can/will compete in safety/range/quickness and production numbers and over the air updates and constant improvement and internet ordering (Amazon & Rivivian ?) and SuperCharging network - time will tell. Service another variable.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Replacing your motorized door handle when it fails (and it seems they do) will cost you @$900. Point is, a giant, rapid influx of people new to Tesla are going to experience repair and service sticker and wait time shock, and parts are not readily available from Rock Auto for DIY garage repairs.

While I take your point that Tesla service is quite different from traditional car service, your example of $900 for a door handle is not accurate. I had one of my door handles repaired in my garage, 300 miles from the nearest service center, by a mobile service technician. The cost was $237 for labor, parts and sales tax on the parts. Not cheap but certainly very convenient.

 

[Brando]

But driving every weekend from Denver to the ski resorts..... you see what really sells for families. And it’s cherokees, 4runners outbacks and explorers. This car is not remotely close to being an adequate or desirable alternative to those. And that is a shame as those are the true gas guzzlers of the world.

As people learn/convinced of the lower operating costs AND extra safety they may well find the extra cost well worth it, especially if/when the life time of the Model X proves to be 500,000 to 1,000,000 miles. They may keep it that long OR be able to buy used.
Not going to gas stations, exhaust free, quiet will also add to the desirability.
Then add in software updates AND autonomy. Model X the logical choice.

note competition: So far the i-Pace and e-Tron seem to lack range and it seems the SuperChargers may have no equal, yet.
And then availability - will Jag/Audi build enough even if they get the demand?

 

[Brave Ulysses]

As people learn/convinced of the lower operating costs AND extra safety they may well find the extra cost well worth it, especially if/when the life time of the Model X proves to be 500,000 to 1,000,000 miles. They may keep it that long OR be able to buy used.
Not going to gas stations, exhaust free, quiet will also add to the desirability.
Then add in software updates AND autonomy. Model X the logical choice.

note competition: So far the i-Pace and e-Tron seem to lack range and it seems the SuperChargers may have no equal, yet.
And then availability - will Jag/Audi build enough even if they get the demand?

It doesn’t cost that much to operate a 4Runner or an outback. Gas is cheap. People are use to automobile maintenance. A model x is easily 2-3x the price anyone has ever paid for a vehicle. That is not just something to mentally overcome. It’s something most people simply can’t afford.

 

[MXWing]

That's a different issue (if it's an issue at all). I don't think Tesla/Elon wanted to draw too much attention to this car. The priority at the moment is to sell 3s.

Yes, I figured out all the strengths of the Y in an hour looking at them and sitting in it. Elon knows them, he purposely didn’t share it.

For business reasons.

I feel so bad for those who are blind to what the Y actually is.

The right product, at the right time and at the right price.

Tesla makes more than just the 3 and the Y in case it wasn’t abundantly clear.

 

[dmurphy]

The right product, at the right time and at the right price.

I agree with all your points (and BTW - it’s nice to be talking to one of the few who’s actually sat in it!).. except... the right time.

I understand the reason why late 2020 is the case but the earlier the better. Fall 2019 would be ideal.

Edit: I just watched one of the test ride videos on YouTube. Spectacular. The ride height difference is immediately obvious.

This vehicle is EXACTLY what I want. I just need to get from this fall until it’s ready - my current lease is up; so I’ll likely do a 24 month lease of something to bridge the gap. A Model 3 lease sure would be great.

 

[BerTX]

I think the Model Y will outsell the Model 3 because it is the car that the Model 3 should have been. But I think it will outsell the Model 3 because it will cannibalize sales from the Model 3, not necessarily because it will take sales from the US ICE SUV market. It just isn't an SUV, just like the Model X is not an SUV. That market simply doesn't want a CUV.

But it will absorb some of the dwindling sedan market that does NOT want to go to an SUV. I think the Model Y will do well. Will it outsell TM3+MS+MX? Eventually, sure.

 

[mattjs33]

Nope. Deposits are liabilities. They are not income.

They are however cash.

You don't pay bills with a balance sheet. You're over-thinking this, as do a lot of people.

Just because deposits go into the "income" column in the accountants' office, doesn't mean they don't go directly into your checking account.

 

[mattjs33]

The 3rd row seats looks like they have enough room to fit 2 people that are 5'10 or shorter. Probably the same amount of space as you would get in an economy airplane seat with a seat pitch of 28 inches?

I used this pic yesterday, and I'll use it again.

Here's Elon standing next to the Model Y:

The rear seatbacks are going to be about even with the rear door cut line. You tell me where you are going to put two human beings behind there.

Use Elon for scale. I don't know how tall he is, but as a full-size human I can gauge visually fairly well. How small do these kids in the back need to be? Anyone that small will require a safety seat anyway, and as the father of a five year old who still isn't big enough to use just a booster, I'll tell you there's no way. She and her seat together barely fit in my XJ8, and that's if the passenger seat is all the way forward.

I know @MXWing has sat in one already, and he says there's room back there. I respect his opinions, but I have serious doubts humans of any size could use those seats.

 

[electracity]

I know @MXWing has sat in one already, and he says there's room back there. I respect his opinions, but I have serious doubts humans of any size could use those seats.

If you watch the video you will see adults exit from the third row. The third row on all small SUVs is for children and smaller women. If you have ever had a three row vehicle you would know that in a group of seven there's almost always a way to fit a couple people in the back.

The .01% of people who regularly travel in a group of seven adults should buy a larger vehicle. Even the X is not particularly suitable for regular travel with seven adults.

Also, It's a very American perspective that you don't sometimes have to pack people tightly into a vehicle. So I don't see the market having a problem with the Y being a three row vehicle.

 

[jbcarioca]

If you watch the video you will see adults exit from the third row. The third row on all small SUVs is for children and smaller women...

Smaller men fit just as well as smaller women, don't they?

 

[happyzod]

I used this pic yesterday, and I'll use it again.

Here's Elon standing next to the Model Y:

View attachment 387022

The rear seatbacks are going to be about even with the rear door cut line. You tell me where you are going to put two human beings behind there.

Use Elon for scale. I don't know how tall he is, but as a full-size human I can gauge visually fairly well. How small do these kids in the back need to be? Anyone that small will require a safety seat anyway, and as the father of a five year old who still isn't big enough to use just a booster, I'll tell you there's no way. She and her seat together barely fit in my XJ8, and that's if the passenger seat is all the way forward.

I know @MXWing has sat in one already, and he says there's room back there. I respect his opinions, but I have serious doubts humans of any size could use those seats.

My guess is that the back seats are lower than the front seats. Remember, the front seats are boosted up a few inches. I estimate that the back seat will end right about where the rear wheel ends, thus giving you about a wheel + tire diameter of space to sit.

 

[tomas]

While I take your point that Tesla service is quite different from traditional car service, your example of $900 for a door handle is not accurate. I had one of my door handles repaired in my garage, 300 miles from the nearest service center, by a mobile service technician. The cost was $237 for labor, parts and sales tax on the parts. Not cheap but certainly very convenient.

Yep. People make stuff up or recirculate bad info they got on the internet. Not only is door handle not $900, it’s also not an eoidemic. I have 9 car years of Tesla ownership and not a single door handle incident. My friends total about 50 years of ownership and I’ve yet to hear of a door handle failure.

 

[jerry33]

Yep. People make stuff up or recirculate bad info they got on the internet. Not only is door handle not $900, it’s also not an eoidemic. I have 9 car years of Tesla ownership and not a single door handle incident. My friends total about 50 years of ownership and I’ve yet to hear of a door handle failure.

I have had one in six years 121K miles. Cost $175 for the Ranger to come and fix it. But I've shown my car so often that it probably has 3X the normal amount of openings and closings.

 

[SoCalDude]

People like larger!

Do we know if the Y will be wider than the 3? It looks like the front cabin is just a little taller giving more head room. Same model 3 seats and same wheel options. Seems like the value here is sitting up higher which is what I would like plus folding second row and seating option for 7 with an easy access trunk.

The big question is how large of a TV will slide in the back from Costco?

 

[CarlK]

Well, in the presentation, Elon said he is confident that the sales of Model Y will exceed Model S, X, and 3 combined.

I am a bit skeptical and I don't know why he said it, but for some reason, I think Model 3 will still exceed the sales of Model Y.
Model 3 is cheaper, quicker and has longer range. I feel the Model 3 will stay top. What do you think? Do you agree with what Elon said?

Time will tell but let's speculate!

Correct me wrong, if I heard it wrong. I think I heard it near the end of the presentation.

People have different practical and emotional reasons for choosing a car. From one extreme to the other goes something like sports car --> coupe --> sedan --> station wagon --> crossover --> SUV --> minivan. The sweet spot at this moment happens to be the CUV. The trend seems to be that it will get even more popular (at the expense of sedans). That's just the way it is.

 

[MXWing]

I used this pic yesterday, and I'll use it again.

Here's Elon standing next to the Model Y:

View attachment 387022

The rear seatbacks are going to be about even with the rear door cut line. You tell me where you are going to put two human beings behind there.

Use Elon for scale. I don't know how tall he is, but as a full-size human I can gauge visually fairly well. How small do these kids in the back need to be? Anyone that small will require a safety seat anyway, and as the father of a five year old who still isn't big enough to use just a booster, I'll tell you there's no way. She and her seat together barely fit in my XJ8, and that's if the passenger seat is all the way forward.

I know @MXWing has sat in one already, and he says there's room back there. I respect his opinions, but I have serious doubts humans of any size could use those seats.

I’ll clarify again what I said. The rear seats appear to be designed for children not adults.

I didn’t have the chance to measure width and height so I couldn’t say WHAT size children but I felt they were upgrades to the Model S rear facing seats.

If you were a family just starting or has kids in car seats when you buy the Y you will get your monies worth.

However, I don’t expect the 7 seat option to be very popular overall unless it folds flat.

I think the 7 seats are an option they still need to refine and won’t be ready for launch which is implied anyway on the site.

I didn’t see any restraint systems so I stress again - the Y 3rd row seats are clearly under development.

What it can and cannot do I am certain is still TBD.