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How far away are we from FSD. Would you option now?
- Thread starter illusivedreams
- Start date
Don't. If you must, get EAP as a stop gap. Personally I don't think we'll see FSD on the current hardware. The next gen hardware is about to go into production with TSMC next year.
With the current FSD hardware there would be carnage on our roads.
blubbernator
Member
IMHO not possible with their current hardware. I don't get why people want to pay (heaps too) to be beta if not alpha testers. Hot take: By the time FSD works (here) you will have another car anyway.
First 2 minutes didnt come to a complete stop at 2 stop signs. Thats 6 demerit points.
Let me know when it follows the road rules.
I do believe the US has the same rules as Australia, in every State. Complete not rolling stops. Certainly that was the case for my 104 trips to the USA! So a bit disappointing if Tesla gets that wrong.
In SA you will definately get booked unless the car comes to a complete stop. Fairly sure its the same in all other states too.Oh no the car was going <1mph
Maximillan
Member
FSD is the crypto of the car accessories world.
Still no carnage.
I myself, at similar speed, run a stop sign every time I return home which can be up to 4 times a day. I also go over the speed limit EVERY SINGLE TIME I leave my house (ie. 4+ times per day). Haven't carnaged anyone in the last 30+ years of driving. Touchwood.
I mean if you actually look at the video the car is stationary before it starts creeping forward and proceeds.
Seems a bit silly to discredit an entire system because of something as small as that.
If you're going to be so pedantic about things like that I don't think you'll ever be happy with it.
Yeah ok, but will the police and australian judiciary system agree with you on that? I see little point in a system that cannot operate within our nanny state laws, which I did not create. Also the car is not stopped before moving. The law is very specific about this revenue raiser I mean requirement, and the political debate about placing blame on the car has not yet occurred
singlestack
Member
I agree... but I won't bet against Elon (despite all the crazy things he says). It seems to me current HW isn't capable, but if it is... he's probably right that the value of FSD will exceed the value of the car.
Also: people who bought FSD a few years ago have been getting free HW upgrades.
I optioned it. I think the FSD price will go up to $20k within a few months.
It's a $15k bet for:
- Guaranteed payouts: some (limited) resale value increase (buoyed by future price increases), actually using FSD (beta) features.
- Likely payouts: free HW upgrades to FSD computer, cameras, or other.
- Possible payout: ~$70k value if FSD is actually achieved.
paulieP!!! FYI the car does come to complete stop. The display rounds *UP* to the nearest mile/kmh so looking it doesn't help. The complete stop only lasts for a second so it's very hard to notice in a video. I've driven FSD Beta and I can tell you 100% it comes to complete stop.
2nd hand market just does not value it, go check it out on Carsales. You will be lucky for a couple of extra thousand.
No idea about free HW upgrade, but it's unlikely if you're on the current stack which is compatible with what you've purchased.
The economics don't make sense for the software upgrade to ever recoup anywhere near the cost of the vehicle. This would suggest people would be paying $140k for a FSD-enabled base RWD in the future, in a market which is becoming increasingly more competitive for driver-assist features (which is what FSD is, at Level 2).
If you have the spare cash go for it. I have EAP and love it. However it being an investment is purely a marketing statement.
singlestack
Member
Yes, that's why I said "some (limited) resale value increase".
See here: Tesla offering Autopilot Camera Upgrades to owners with FSD capability
If heated seats are worth $18/month then it seems plausible that a self-driving subscription is worth $500+/month. That would easily value lifetime FSD with no subscription at multiple tens of thousands.
The camera upgrade is for those with HW2 / HW2.5. If you are on HW3 I'm not sure we are going to see Tesla pay for a hardware upgrade when Beta runs on HW3, that is now widely available.
I'd be careful about extrapolating the subscription cost which is a different market and value proposition. It's similar to saying that you could value a new vehicle through multiplying the rental price and vehicle life.
singlestack
Member
True. It's a gamble; it may or may not pay off when future Betas and future HW versions arrive, and Tesla decides what they're doing.
Good point and very well said.
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