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dhrivnak
Active Member
But this ignores the possibility of a tipping point, the point at which most people WANT the technology. Unfortunately this is very hard to predict as many factors are outside of our control. For example if suddenly gasoline became hard to get due to a refinery explosion or a war, and people had to sit in gas lines, the switch to electric cars would happen far faster than any of us could imagine. If on the other hand they find a easy way to extract shale oil and the price drops to $40/barrel we may see Tesla fold or at least be hurting for a long while as cheap gas will trump.
As for how far a car needs to go on a charge I think it is highly dependent on the charging infrastructure. For example if I can be confident that I can charge in many places with an hour long fast charge, then 280 miles is plenty far enough as most people will want to stop for a break after 4 hours of driving. But if it is going to take 10 hours to charge with a 30 amp level 2 charger, then I will say I need a 500 mile range.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't think any conceivable increase in oil production will keep up with increasing demand from China and other countries.
Considering especially in the US where so many people economically live on the edge I'm guessing a few nasty gas spikes will kill the very vulnerable fueling infrastructure for ICE cars. Last time when gas spiked to $5 many gas station owners saw a huge drop in gasoline sales as well as concession items from the gas station. And their take on the gas itself is small it's the ice cream and sodas and all the other stuff that really makes their business stay afloat. That's the tipping point, when the convenience of a gasoline fill-up turns into the problem of a gasoline fill-up. North sea oil the last year has not been below $100 a barrel even including all the Euro and US troubles in 2011. Imagine what a US recovery would mean for gasoline prices...
Cobos
Cobos
JOEV1
*****joe
In view of arguments and the question "shall I... or shall I not..." (get an electric car) It is true, that mostly the range of an electric car makes people skeptical. Allow me to add a couple of thoughts:
Why not load the car on a train and have the railways extend our driving pleasure?
In Europe we have a "Carry on the Train Service" or "Auto-Train Service" for Tourist who don't want to drive long distances.
For example... "Hamburg - Vienna" is one of those offered.
The short-coming of it all, is that so far only a few cities are serviced.
Would it not be great to save on boring overland-miles when traveling interstate? It would even be greater to arrive at Your destination, stepping off the train and collect the e-car?
One is relaxed, rested and ready for work, holiday, sight seeing, visiting friends or for whichever convenience?
Would it not be great to arrive with a full battery and not immediately worrying about charging locations? (why not charge the car while on the train too?)
In my opinion, the railway service can really compliment electro-mobility. In the meantime, let the experts invent better batteries or charging systems. But for now, this could be the answer for all those in doubt.
Lets make this idea known to the responsible institutions... because the e-car future has arrived and is here to stay.
Why not load the car on a train and have the railways extend our driving pleasure?
In Europe we have a "Carry on the Train Service" or "Auto-Train Service" for Tourist who don't want to drive long distances.
For example... "Hamburg - Vienna" is one of those offered.
The short-coming of it all, is that so far only a few cities are serviced.
Would it not be great to save on boring overland-miles when traveling interstate? It would even be greater to arrive at Your destination, stepping off the train and collect the e-car?
One is relaxed, rested and ready for work, holiday, sight seeing, visiting friends or for whichever convenience?
Would it not be great to arrive with a full battery and not immediately worrying about charging locations? (why not charge the car while on the train too?)
In my opinion, the railway service can really compliment electro-mobility. In the meantime, let the experts invent better batteries or charging systems. But for now, this could be the answer for all those in doubt.
Lets make this idea known to the responsible institutions... because the e-car future has arrived and is here to stay.
Thumper
Active Member
Amtrak does have one Auto train up and down the east coast.
Amtrak - Routes - Northeast - Auto Train
We certainly need more!
Amtrak - Routes - Northeast - Auto Train
We certainly need more!
This is called Europe (4 is on the way now). The LEAF in the UK is priced at about the same as an equivalent performance Golf Bluemotion TDI, so is not stupidly expensive, yet they are not exactly flying off the lots. Something else is going on.
Up thread someone said that they thought Tesla might be using an EPA light duty test. Well one other interesting data point is that the Roadster scores 211 miles on the European NEDC test. Yet that same test rates the LEAF at 109 miles vs the "EPA" 73 miles. So one car is vastly lower and the other is much higher. Maybe this allows a rough comparison between old and new EPA?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Here in the US there isn't enough rail to make that happen on any real scale. It's easier to install fast chargers than it is to build railways, though I do think we need more rail, especially heavy freight.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
See my previous post about EPA "2 cycle" vs the current EPA "5 cycle".
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ore-it-will-sell?p=92112&viewfull=1#post92112
We know the 245 mile number is on the older (pre-2008 model year) "2 cycle" EPA test. That's what Tesla advertised since the start. If you work from the 30kWh/100mile efficiency rating, you get 53kWh/(30kWh/100mile)=176 miles or 72% of that 245 mile number.
From the FOIA request by Smidge204 over at the Leaf forums, the EPA conversion factor between "2 cycle" and "derived 5 cycle" is 70% or higher.
Leaf: 141.69 MPGe (actual test) x 70% = 99 MPGe (sticker)
Volt: 48.44 mpg (actual test) x 76% = 37 mpg (sticker)
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2433
Anyways I worked out these range numbers based on the above information (EPA2 = EPA combined 2-cycle; NEDC ; EPA5 = EPA combined 5-cycle):
Kind of interesting the Tesla's the only one that has NEDC lower than EPA2 (although Leaf's EPA2 and NEDC is quite close). Maybe they did NEDC in standard mode rather than range mode (which, if true, would push the number to 264 miles on NEDC)?
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I'm pretty sure that the EPA's kWh/100 miles efficiency ratings are based on kWh extracted from the "wall" (EVSE). Also the Roadster's on-board charger is not super-efficient (it is light and powerful however, Tesla prioritized their 1.0 design correctly in my opinion). EPA's range numbers are based on the energy available from the battery and charging losses don't apply.
To calculate range from battery capacity, we need the vehicle's kWh/100 mi efficiency. I think that, this is reported on the Roadster touchscreen, but it is not reported by the EPA.
GSP
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I guess I did ignore charging losses. But that would peg a full charge at 245 miles * 30kWh/100 miles = 73.5kWh. Or 72% efficiency from my other post, is it really that bad? I thought a full charge only took 60-something kWh or about 80-90% efficiency. Assuming that, 30kWh/100miles corresponds to 220-196 miles (80%-90% efficiency). That 220 number corresponds better with the 221 miles that Tesla got revised down to on the 1.0s (maybe the 1.5 bumped it back to 245 miles?).
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/letter-customers-zeev-drori
Rob Wilder says 68kWh for a full charge.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/pvev-we’re-getting-72-miles-day-sunlight-or-72-mps
Anyways, you're right that the plug-to-wheels number makes it quite difficult to figure out the full range, esp. since the EPA sticker doesn't state the electricity need for a full charge. Maybe an FOIA request is in order?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
With the temperature management of the Roadster charging efficiency will probably vary greatly depending on how much energy is being used to heat or cool the pack during charging.
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