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How far into the future before this happens to Teslas?

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It won't just be Tesla. When companies start to lock down the engine controls and have only OTA/server-based software, there will be no path to restoration. Once the OEM stops support, you will not be able to get the correct flash for a car that loses it's ECM.

Probably 25 years out though. Sooner for brands that terminate.
 
Fortunately with the large user base for Tesla even after they discontinue support for the Model S, there will be third party options available. There are already a handful of folks who are able to clear errors on blacklisted salvage cars and get them back on the road. That will just become more and more prevalent as the number of S's increases and as more and more of them go out of warranty.
 
Tesla's system is based on Linux which is based on Unix which has been around for over 40 years. It powers the majority of the Internet, android devices, banking systems, computer research, etc.

It's not going anywhere anytime soon.
 
Tesla's system is based on Linux which is based on Unix which has been around for over 40 years. It powers the majority of the Internet, android devices, banking systems, computer research, etc.

It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Trivia - most cars use discrete operating systems custom engineered for that specific car. It's not open source.

It's not that, it has to do with the computer mindset. I tried to get a $2500 Dell Computer serviced yesterday that was manufactured in May 2013. No love. They would not look at it, and they have all the digital tools to troubleshoot it. They will not sell parts.

Let's say your 2013 Walkaknobbie SUV has a locked ECM. The VIN and security code is locked in it. The ECM fails (it is a computer).

You will be able to buy a ECM from the OEM, original supplier, or a junkyard. But the first thing you need to do is to either bench flash it, or install it to flash (depending on the car). If Walkaknobbie will not provide you with the flashing tool and the correct OS and table file, you are screwed. An ECM in a locked system only works on the car it was sold with. It's to stop theft. You can't just take an ECM from another car to defeat the security.