Thanks to all who've commented.
I hope to make the spreadsheet available in due course, because users would be able to see the result after inserting their own figures, e.g. for gasoline price and electricity price. It's still a work in progress (with probable future adjustments), based on a QC model of assumptions and formulas. Some simple assumptions are about maintenance cost and frequency, some are about fuel efficiency.
I think I've improved on the QC model but won't go into details here. Therefore, people should take my results as a guide only, far from definitive, keeping in mind also that the spreadsheet is intended for much more than the Model 3 in Ontario.
Some people here came close enough to the answer, since we must deal in approximations. For the Model 3 as currently configured minimally, you recover the putative 30% increase in price over an unspecified gasoline car after about 22,000 km (a year’s driving for many people).
But that’s with the big rebate. When that disappears, the distance goes to 137,000 km, 6 years’ driving for many people.
Also emerging from this work is that operation cost for the Model 3 (with simple assumptions about maintenance) is about 1/7 of the equivalent hypothetical gasoline car with gas at $1.30. At $1.15 it’s about 1/6.5.
Always remembering YMMV. And cost recovery isn’t the only element in deciding to drive an EV. For some people it doesn’t count at all.
I hope to make the spreadsheet available in due course, because users would be able to see the result after inserting their own figures, e.g. for gasoline price and electricity price. It's still a work in progress (with probable future adjustments), based on a QC model of assumptions and formulas. Some simple assumptions are about maintenance cost and frequency, some are about fuel efficiency.
I think I've improved on the QC model but won't go into details here. Therefore, people should take my results as a guide only, far from definitive, keeping in mind also that the spreadsheet is intended for much more than the Model 3 in Ontario.
Some people here came close enough to the answer, since we must deal in approximations. For the Model 3 as currently configured minimally, you recover the putative 30% increase in price over an unspecified gasoline car after about 22,000 km (a year’s driving for many people).
But that’s with the big rebate. When that disappears, the distance goes to 137,000 km, 6 years’ driving for many people.
Also emerging from this work is that operation cost for the Model 3 (with simple assumptions about maintenance) is about 1/7 of the equivalent hypothetical gasoline car with gas at $1.30. At $1.15 it’s about 1/6.5.
Always remembering YMMV. And cost recovery isn’t the only element in deciding to drive an EV. For some people it doesn’t count at all.
