How far will current selling prices fall after Jan. 1 ?

[Mr. Wonderful]

I paid $50,490 for my 2021 Model Y LR in May 2021 (since sold).
Same car today $65,990. So a $15,500 price increase in 18 months - insane.

 

[bayareaever]

I personally think fsd will rise to $20k on 1/1/23, which will kind of offset the new tax credit, at least for those getting that option.

It’s quite clear that fsd price is going to rise with single stack/V.11 release.

 

[rhinOC]

I

I paid $50,490 for my 2021 Model Y LR in May 2021 (since sold).
Same car today $65,990. So a $15,500 price increase in 18 months - insane.

Yeah but I think the new ones come with Nitrogen in the tires so they’re worth it!

 

[VT_EE]

"Trending down" is putting it lightly.
Offers from Carvana, Driveway, etc for Model Ys are down by like $15k over the past six to nine months!

The supply and demand situation is rapidly rebalancing. If this continues, used Teslas will be an absolute bargain next year compared to new, even with the new credits factored in.

My trade-in "offer" went from $38k to $22.5k while waiting 4 months for my new 3 LR. Used car inventories are high so trade-in values have tanked. This does not mean used car prices have come down the same amount though. They haven't. I just sold my car for $32.4k because I priced it thousands less than comparable models at dealers.

 

[VT_EE]

I personally think fsd will rise to $20k on 1/1/23, which will kind of offset the new tax credit, at least for those getting that option.

It’s quite clear that fsd price is going to rise with single stack/V.11 release.

FSD is a waste of money. Barely anybody looking for a used Tesla seems to care about FSD so it adds very little value at all.

 

[ucmndd]

I personally think fsd will rise to $20k on 1/1/23, which will kind of offset the new tax credit, at least for those getting that option.

It’s quite clear that fsd price is going to rise with single stack/V.11 release.

I mean, if they can keep fleecing the simple minded with $20k snake oil, why shouldn’t they? At that price we can go ahead and call it an anti-intelligence tax.

 

[bradtem]

I mean, if they can keep fleecing the simple minded with $20k snake oil, why shouldn’t they? At that price we can go ahead and call it an anti-intelligence tax.

The value of FSD in the used market is around $4k. Which makes it odd that people pay $15k to get it "new.". I guess the people buying new cars just aren't price sensitive in the same way.

Tesla also started "adding" FSD to all used Teslas sold by them.

 

[bayareaever]

The value of FSD in the used market is around $4k. Which makes it odd that people pay $15k to get it "new.". I guess the people buying new cars just aren't price sensitive in the same way.

Tesla also started "adding" FSD to all used Teslas sold by them.

Fsd value on used cars is low now but will presumably increase as new features roll out, which they have been regularly. I’ve been fsd beta testing for over a year and can personally attest to this. It’s far from perfect but the progress is notable and just today became much more so, now that anyone can get fsd beta software immediately without any safety score by purchasing /subscribing . There are very high expectations for single stack/v11 releasing before year end and it remains to be seen whether the software will live up to the hype.

Another possibility, which Elon has previously alluded to, is that starting early next year, fsd will not be an option anymore and they will just roll it in to purchase price while keeping it just under limit for tax
credit. That would immediately affect all used prices upward (at least those with fsd) but Im not sure how it would affect those without fsd. Rolling out fsdb widely starting today may be a way to test the take rate before making such a move.

 

[240vPlug]

Buying FSD now is playing the long game. In 3 to 5 years expect FSD to be a much more expensive and much more desirable product. I bought in at 12k but at 15 or 20k I think I would have gone with the sub instead. It is also possible Tesla would rather go the sub route...that seems to be where the market is going now anyway. As long as they don't start requiring a sub to use the heated seats

 

[VT_EE]

Buying FSD now is playing the long game. In 3 to 5 years expect FSD to be a much more expensive and much more desirable product. I bought in at 12k but at 15 or 20k I think I would have gone with the sub instead. It is also possible Tesla would rather go the sub route...that seems to be where the market is going now anyway. As long as they don't start requiring a sub to use the heated seats

I thought the same thing 4 years ago when I bought it. FSD is so far from being an actual driver's aid. It's going to be a long time before any serious autonomy is approved by regulators. $20k (or even $15k) for any sort of FSD is ridiculous even if it actually worked. Don't forget that Tesla isn't the only game in town so there will be competition.

 

[240vPlug]

I thought the same thing 4 years ago when I bought it. FSD is so far from being an actual driver's aid. It's going to be a long time before any serious autonomy is approved by regulators. $20k (or even $15k) for any sort of FSD is ridiculous even if it actually worked. Don't forget that Tesla isn't the only game in town so there will be competition.

I hear what your saying. How much was FSD 4 years ago? I mean yes your paying for something that isn't feature complete. Not everyone wants to do that and it's totally understandable.

 

[Unclepaul]

If rebates kick in after the first of the year, late model used car prices will drop a bit to reflect that. This will depend on how long a waiting list developes. If the wait list is significant, used prices will remain firm or even rise for instant delivery.

In the past, Tesla has increased prices when demand is strong and offset rebates.

Trying to arbitrage Tesla pricing has always been a challenge. Timing to get the absolute rock bottom lowest pricing often comes down more to chance rather than cleaver timing of order placement.

 

[1plavs]

If rebates kick in after the first of the year, late model used car prices will drop a bit to reflect that. This will depend on how long a waiting list developes. If the wait list is significant, used prices will remain firm or even rise for instant delivery.

In the past, Tesla has increased prices when demand is strong and offset rebates.

Trying to arbitrage Tesla pricing has always been a challenge. Timing to get the absolute rock bottom lowest pricing often comes down more to chance rather than cleaver timing of order placement.

If rebates kick in after the first of the year, late model used car prices will drop a bit to reflect that. This will depend on how long a waiting list developes. If the wait list is significant, used prices will remain firm or even rise for instant delivery.

In the past, Tesla has increased prices when demand is strong and offset rebates.

Trying to arbitrage Tesla pricing has always been a challenge. Timing to get the absolute rock bottom lowest pricing often comes down more to chance rather than cleaver timing of order placement.

I can’t believe our ‘22 MYP that we picked up in May is only worth $46-$50k now. I’m actually quite disturbed but it. We paid $65k and only 6 months have passed and we have lost $20k in resale??

 

[voxel]

I can’t believe our ‘22 MYP that we picked up in May is only worth $46-$50k now. I’m actually quite disturbed but it. We paid $65k and only 6 months have passed and we have lost $20k in resale??

That's the wholesale number... and probably a tad higher than that. In reality you could probably sell it for mid/upper-50s... whish is inline with historical new car depreciation. There are two halves of the equation - supply and demand - and Tesla is cranking out Ys.

 

[1plavs]

That's the wholesale number... and probably a tad higher than that. In reality you could probably sell it for mid/upper-50s... whish is inline with historical new car depreciation. There are two halves of the equation - supply and demand - and Tesla is cranking out Ys.

I’m glad I upgraded from the MYLR to the MYP basically for no added cost when I could. Now it wouldn’t be possible. Sounds like we are stuck with these resale numbers for a while …

 

[lionzer26125]

So I recently purchased a MYP for around 66k and I feel really stupid for doing so because since my purchase prices have already fallen and like others have said on this thread it is probably worth 55k-60k right now.

I definitely think prices are going to fall a decent amount next year because it seems like Tesla is really cranking out cars. Based on simple economics of supply and demand, if supply is high demand will eventually fall resulting in decreased prices. It does not take a genius to figure this out.

 

[1plavs]

So I recently purchased a MYP for around 66k and I feel really stupid for doing so because since my purchase prices have already fallen and like others have said on this thread it is probably worth 55k-60k right now.

I definitely think prices are going to fall a decent amount next year because it seems like Tesla is really cranking out cars. Based on simple economics of supply and demand, if supply is high demand will eventually fall resulting in decreased prices. It does not take a genius to figure this out.

Hate to tell you this and congrats on the new car, but the second you drove your new MYP home it isn’t worth more than $45-50k at this time.

 

[Woggon]

"Trending down" is putting it lightly.
Offers from Carvana, Driveway, etc for Model Ys are down by like $15k over the past six to nine months!

The supply and demand situation is rapidly rebalancing. If this continues, used Teslas will be an absolute bargain next year compared to new, even with the new credits factored in.

Try more like 6-9 weeks. I sold my 2022 MYLR white/black 5 seater to Carmax in late September for $58K. A couple weeks ago I typed in the same vin to Carvana and they offered me $41K.

Carmax just took my car off their website (not sure if it sold, is being moved, or went to auction). Price started at $69k and dropped to $59K over the time it was listed, and changed lots 3 times.

 

[Yelobird]

So I recently purchased a MYP for around 66k and I feel really stupid for doing so because since my purchase prices have already fallen and like others have said on this thread it is probably worth 55k-60k right now.

I definitely think prices are going to fall a decent amount next year because it seems like Tesla is really cranking out cars. Based on simple economics of supply and demand, if supply is high demand will eventually fall resulting in decreased prices. It does not take a genius to figure this out.

Ummm, you bought a used 2021 with FSD and full PPF and got a 4K IL rebate so Technically you paid 51k for your car. So not actually a disappointment.

 

[Keninblaine]

I'm surprised at so many people feeling bad about their cars depreciating in value. Except for the unusual market conditions in 2021 and early 2022 due to supply chain issues, most new cars have always depreciated in value, especially in their first year or two.