How far will current selling prices fall after Jan. 1 ?

[Mr. Wonderful]

With $7,500 rebates around the corner, I'm wondering how far current prices will fall to compete with new purchases.
I will be in the market around Jan. 1 and anxious to see how much the value of used '22s AND '23s will drop.
If there is a substantial price drop, I'd probably be happy buying a '22 or '23 used model.
Makes no sense buying one now (if not absolutely necessary) if Fed rebate is around the corner.

 

[Ogre]

Likely a bit. But a big chunk of the high used prices are due to the fact that the wait list is so long. If the wait list increases due to the rebates, it might not improve much.

 

[240vPlug]

There is a 2020 MY LR with 25k miles near me for 45k. I think another 10% is likely unless something changes. Maybe even more. That's retail....wholesale prices are much worse.

 

[Unclepaul]

Used car market place is a mess right now. Huge variations in prices due to lots of variables. Prices on used tending down, and Additional Dealer Markup for popular cars are shrinking as factories begin to catch up with demand.

 

[bradtem]

Go down? Based on 2019 when Tesla lost their tax credit, Tesla dropped the price of the cars. As such I expect them to raise the price of the cars by a lot when the credit kicks in, maybe not by $7,500 but probably at least $5,000.

That would increase, not decrease the price of the used cars. Indeed, what really controls this is the wait time to get delivery of a new car. That might increase when the credit goes in (unless Tesla raises prices by the full $7.5K to cancel out the credit.) If the wait time increases, that will drive up the price of used cars. If Tesla increases production that could lower the wait time and thus decrease the value of used cars.

So I can't choose any of the options in your poll. It's pretty hard to predict. Most likely prediction is they stay stable or go up a small amount. Tesla will adjust their price to match demand. Today they are selling all the cars they can make at current prices, which would suggest they might add $7,500 to the new price to keep the same net price to the buyer. However, tax credits are work, it might not be that much. Credits come a year later, too.

The tax credit for used cars is only for cars under $25K IIRC. So that's not many Teslas yet. That will create a situation where a car for $25K costs $21K but a car for $25,001 costs $25,001 which will bend the market in strange ways.

 

[blinkme323]

It's almost a guarantee that Tesla will raise prices to at least partially, if not fully offset the tax credit. I thought that was pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.

 

[Silicon Desert]

It's almost a guarantee that Tesla will raise prices to at least partially, if not fully offset the tax credit. I thought that was pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.

could be. The poll only assumes price will drop since not option to show an increase.

 

[BMWY]

LOL, prices are only gonna go up after Jan 1 my friend. Zero chance they drop. Zero..

 

[Sambub]

Isn't the Model Y too expensive for the credit? So the thinking goes Tesla will reduce prices to allow buyers to get the credit with their purchase.

As such, I am also assuming prices are going to go down after 1st of year and am waiting to purchase then..

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

I'm actually looking at alternatives to model Y.
In particular, the 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV at less than half the price of a Y.
I have yet to see one in person, and at 6'4", would like to sit in one to see how comfortable I would be.
Yes, it is not comparable to the Y in many ways, but I mainly drive locally and very seldom on a highway,
so speed is not a major factor for me. I have my Corvette Z06 if I want a thrill ride.
Range is estimated at 247 miles, but that would not be a problem for me.
I plan to visit a local dealer to view and hopefully test drive one. It is definitely on my short list.
I've owned a 2021 Y so am familiar with the car. I am pretty certain that any Bolt I see will not have
to be inspected for ill-fitting panels, paint problems, interior trim fit, etc. That is the main reason I
hesitate to pre-order a new model Y.
And if Elon decides to raise prices to offset rebate, as some have suggested, and new and used prices go up,
it will make my choice that much easier.

 

[BMWY]

Isn't the Model Y too expensive for the credit? So the thinking goes Tesla will reduce prices to allow buyers to get the credit with their purchase.

As such, I am also assuming prices are going to go down after 1st of year and am waiting to purchase then..

No, it has been classified as an SUV so it is well within the params.

 

[Level 1]

Prices on used tending down

"Trending down" is putting it lightly.
Offers from Carvana, Driveway, etc for Model Ys are down by like $15k over the past six to nine months!

The supply and demand situation is rapidly rebalancing. If this continues, used Teslas will be an absolute bargain next year compared to new, even with the new credits factored in.

 

[pepperoni]

LOL, prices are only gonna go up after Jan 1 my friend. Zero chance they drop. Zero..

OP is asking about used prices. Emphasis added below.

I will be in the market around Jan. 1 and anxious to see how much the value of used '22s AND '23s will drop.

With new MYs getting a federally subsidized discount on Jan 1, there will be further downward pressure on used MY prices. How much, we shall see…

 

[ucmndd]

The Y is already far too expensive for current market conditions. The tax credit will let Tesla keep prices “too high” while the government does the discounting, but I think the thought of further price increases on top of that is nuts.

Used market will continue to correct - availability of tax credit on new inventory will accelerate that trend.

 

[Yelobird]

The Y is already far too expensive for current market conditions. The tax credit will let Tesla keep prices “too high” while the government does the discounting, but I think the thought of further price increases on top of that is nuts.

Used market will continue to correct - availability of tax credit on new inventory will accelerate that trend.

For perspective used market for ALL cars is hitting a wall by early year comparison as are houses. Not really a Tesla issue just a market, rate, and recession trend.

 

[Rice&Curry]

Likely a bit. But a big chunk of the high used prices are due to the fact that the wait list is so long. If the wait list increases due to the rebates, it might not improve much.

yes, I agree we live in a free market society - pricing is based on demand and supply and competitive advantage.

 

[240vPlug]

To all the folks talking about Tesla raising prices. Given the current economic environment I don't see how that is a good idea for Tesla. New car inventory is already building especially over the last month. Used vehicles available have skyrocketed, at least around here, in the last 30-45 days.

Tesla has already made several price increases this year and they MY is getting pretty close to the limit for the EV credit on SUV. M3 LR and P don't qualify at their current prices. Then add in the economic uncertainty and higher interest rates which serve to stifle demand and its clear to me Tesla needs this credit to boost demand. They may even need to reduce prices slightly (which they probably will not do).

Under normal circumstances I think what many folks are saying about Tesla raising prices would be true but not in this environment. If they do raise prices $5,000 that would make the MY LR $71,000 and MYP $75,000 starting. These are not 70k cars and some would argue 60k is pushing it. Tax credit or not.

Lastly, tax credits reduce the value of used vehicles because they get priced in. The thinking usually goes along the lines of "I can get $7,500 off a new one so why would I buy a used one?". I would expect further downward pressure on used values regardless of what Tesla does with prices.

As always my standard disclaimer about speculation. Nobody can say for sure what will happen and everything is subject to change.

 

[tashtibet]

used EV will get $4k discount only through dealership beginning 2023. So many people are holding to get $7500 tax credit -that exodus might either make waiting painful or used car pricey.

 

[Level 1]

used EV will get $4k discount

The used EV credit only applies to those sold for $25k or less, and more than two model years old.
The earlier Ys will already qualify for the second part, but it's going to be years before the used market prices for them fall below $25k.

 

[UtahRider]

Don't forget inflation, a 2019 Tesla at $48,000 would be $56,000 in today's dollars (according to this CPI calculator)

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