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How is this math working?

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A few days ago, I placed an order for an AWD (non-performance) model 3, white interior, blue exterior, 19" wheels - I'm super excited. Says Sep-Nov delivery estimate, which I'm having trouble understanding.

I know estimates are just estimates, but: the end of November is ~17 weeks away, which is 85k cars at 5k cars/week, and 119k cars at 7k cars/week. Say there are 400k people ahead of me in line.

I know they're holding off on all base models for now, but it's easy to imagine that a third of those 400k people are willing to pay for the long range or AWD or performance model.

Am I missing something obvious, or is this deadline unlikely to get hit?