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How long before we see a bigger battery on MS?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by computerchuck, Aug 25, 2018.

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What Model S upgrade matters most, if you could only choose one?

  1. Interior refresh

    5 vote(s)
    9.8%
  2. Updated exterior design

    2 vote(s)
    3.9%
  3. Faster Charging (300kw+)

    7 vote(s)
    13.7%
  4. Bigger battery (450+ miles)

    19 vote(s)
    37.3%
  5. Enhanced Auto Pilot working at full level 3, encroaching level 4

    16 vote(s)
    31.4%
  6. Other

    2 vote(s)
    3.9%
  1. computerchuck

    computerchuck Supporting Member

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    Considered pulling the trigger on a new Model S 100D, but I already have a P90D and love it. I dont mind waiting until next year and making the purchase then, thinking that with all of the great battery improvements we've seen and heard about with the Model 3, as well as just general Tesla battery technologies. They've already increased space efficiencies for the 200kw battery pack vs two 100 packs stacked, for the next gen roadster.

    The average ICE car goes at least 400 miles to the fill-up. Some, much closer to the 500 mile range. Just think what would happen to the industry, if every Model S and X could be purchased with a 130 or 150kw pack. This would extend it's range over 450 miles and kill the ICE car industry blunder heads' market much sooner. In my opinion, this is much more important than autonomous driving features, by far. I think we'd be looking at some serous fear! Even more than what they are dealing with now.

    So, to me, this all seems very do-able within the next two years (see Tesla shareholder meeting notes from June. Elon expects efficiencies of densities by 30 percent in that time period).

    But I think the Model 3 focus is killing this! And yes, making Tesla profitable first, which is the most sane and reasonable explanation. Without profits, Tesla dies. I get it. Really, I do.

    So, what goes on in the crystal palace? It's not like there isn't ANYONE working on Model S or X battery design... right?

    Or, have they moved over all their best research techs to focus on Model 3, Semi, Y, and truck? Good chance the answer is yes. Yuck! If so, I'm saddened.

    Anyone else feel my pain??
     
  2. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

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    They will redesign the battery when they redesign the Model S/X, so late next year. no reason to do it now while they are trying to achieve profitability. Makes no sense for them to redesign the battery for a design they will stop building in 12 months. So what they are likely doing is doing a redesign of the battery that will be incorporated into the new model.

    The reason ICE vehicles go 400-500 miles between fill ups is because you don't fill the gas tank in an ICE car everyday, so you need the range to be able to drive for a few days. In an EV, you are generally charging it everyday at home so you always leave with a "full tank."

    You said so yourself, you'd rather keep your P90D then get a new 100D. Even though the P90D is only rated for ~255 miles of range, while the 100D has 70+ more miles. So ranges above 300+ are extra and not essentially needed by most folks, its just "convenient' not "necessary"
     
  3. computerchuck

    computerchuck Supporting Member

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    Do you really think they are going to have time to redesign the exterior of the Model S, when they will be working so hard on the Semi, Y, and roadster? Seems really unlikely to me, but very sincerely hope you are right!!!
     
  4. brkaus

    brkaus Active Member

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    Didn't think of that side of the equation. But yes, I would hate to go to a gas station every day. I still had to go 2x a week in my BMW 330.

    But - A gallon of gas weighs 6.2lbs. A 30mpg car can add 300 miles to the range by adding 62 lbs. it is much more for a battery.
     
    • Informative x 1
  5. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

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    it's been in the news for awhile now.

    Tesla is planning a big Model S/Model X interior refresh in Q3 2019 – full refresh in 2021

    And correction to my original post, looks like its only going to be an interior redesign next year, so we might not even see new batteries if they keep the current form factor.
     
  6. computerchuck

    computerchuck Supporting Member

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    My thinking, exactly. Probably can't afford the time or moneys changing the structural design of the car, at least until the Semi and roadster are in regular production. Promises made.
     
  7. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

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    Tesla is also battery constrained right now for the 2170 cells. They actually scaled back powerwall production in order go get enough batteries for the model 3.
     
  8. croman

    croman Active Member

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    There is easily a few mm to spare to put 2170 batteries. It's not a priority because they have a requirements contract with Panasonic for 18650 batteries for S and X and are maxed on 2170 for medium term. So don't expect 2170s anytime soon.
     
  9. computerchuck

    computerchuck Supporting Member

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    Yuck! How long before the 18650 contract runs out??? *insert several grumbled noises here
     
  10. arlorose

    arlorose Member

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    Personally, I'd love it if they just increased the overall build quality. I know a lot of people say they have no issues, but I think it's just what your threshold is. I just got a loaner while mine's in for a few warranty repairs, it's so new it has the black (space gray) interior trim. Its steering wheel is off by -8°, it still has the front suspension clunking, and has similar interior rattles to mine. I'd far rather have them perfect their build process than start with a whole new design. Unless, of course, that design is less prone to rattles, popping panels, discolored screens, suspension noise, and AC noise. :)
     
  11. croman

    croman Active Member

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    Last I saw 2019 but without sufficient 2170 supply it's immaterial. (Pun intended). Frankly, batteries are batteries. The form factor is helpful but not the biggest factor. Tesla designed matter cooling and other tricks with the model 3 pack that has nothing to do with form factor. 18650 are proven tech with similar performance to 2170.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. HankLloydRight

    HankLloydRight No Roads

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    That's exactly what I said when they were busy ramping up Model X production and designing the Model 3... but they still found time to do the Model S facelift/redesign! I lost a few bets on that one.

    Also, I don't think they are really actively "working" on the semi and roadster like they should be on Model 3 and Model Y. Well, enough that it would distract them from their main mission at this point (profitability).
     
  13. computerchuck

    computerchuck Supporting Member

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    Too funny!! Nice. But, it would seem that the face-lift replacement, wasn't really a fundamental change to the car, comparatively not like redesigning the battery packs and chassis layout. Going to a 150 pack could also require some redesign of the assembly process as well. Way above my pay grade, but understand mechanical design and engineering a little bit, since I work regularly in the manufacturing industry.
    Right. My issue with the battery pack size, is a compilation of the feedback that I get the most from non-Tesla fans (not meaning enemy's, just the average Joe/Joanne), seem to worry about the most, when they think about a battery powered car for the masses. I think once the 450 mile barrier is broken, and affordable (Model 3 price range), the ICE industry would topple very quickly, like a house of cards.

    ***warning - there is a rant below*** Apologies for venting in advance! Read on if you dare...

    When I consider what the next gen roadster is, in my mind, by far, (and what the masses seem to care about most) is travel distance between charges. That, IMO, is the single greatest factor and barrier to the mass adoption of the EV market. Isn't that why there is so much importance placed on battery density? Don't get me wrong, the performance specs are awesome, but the most impressive (for mass adaption) is the 621 miles of range. Full stop. This one thing totally pushes me over the top about this car. This is the kind of range, where I will not have to think about a 'charging plan' like I do now. When I want to go on a road trip and visit places in mountains or lakes in our beautiful country, man. I wish I could choose my Tesla over my ICE vehicle. I feel so strongly about it, that If the model S doesn't get a 200kw pack by late 2021, I will probably look at buying a used next roadster in 2022.

    I really don't want to have to think about charging, the ICE guys never do. If I'min my Tesla, and I'm 100 miles away, and spontaneously decide, 'hey let's hit that super-cool restaurant that's normally 150 miles away, but now is only 50 miles. let's go there' No, I have to consider what chargers are there, if any, and how far out of the way they are. And even worse, after eating, what if I want to visit my brother and his family another 20 miles away as well? In an ICE vehicle, I don't have to think, or worry about it for 1 sec. Why can't I exploit those great Autopilot features when there isn't a SC around, or completely out of the way of my trip? Sorry, I don't live in Cali where there's a SC every 20 miles! (jk)

    I envy that about ICE drivers. They never have to think or worry about things like this. We make concessions (and for very good reasons), but we HAVE TO. 'is there charging there? Can I get home without charging? Where are my charging spots? An ICE driver never worries about this, and they are the vast majority of vehicle owners. this requires some planning. Will they have charging there? to Vegas, let's say from LA or Utah (where I live), without 3 stops at a super charger, creating an extra 1 to 3 hours to your trip.

    So, if we truly want to win this war with the ICE masses (and we will), the first and most important hurdle is battery size/distance, then charging speed. Full stop. Those are the only two that matter in the big picture (assuming cost is nearly the same).

    Right now, when it comes down to it, (maybe because I don't live in California) -- I mostly own a 'specialized' vehicle. Yes, it's by far the best 'specialized' vehicle you can possibly buy! But it's still a specialty vehicle made mostly for a daily commute. (note: I have taken my car on 1000 mile trips multiple times, so you don't need to tell me about how great the SC network is and you can basically go anywhere. I get it. I agree with you, but right now, it's still not my first choice for a long trip).

    Think of it, if your Tesla right now had 600+ miles of range, poof! It's instantly becomes an every trip vehicle, not just a best for certain types of trips.

    Would love to see an article on electrek.co concerning this topic!

    Rant over... go back to your lives as before. :)
     

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