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How long before...

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by ABCTG, Apr 12, 2018.

  1. ABCTG

    ABCTG Supporting Member

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    ..Costco announces slowdown in gas sales?

    My "back of the napkin" calculator of the Costco gas sales near my house;

    10 gallons per customer

    1 customer every 5 minutes

    16 pumps

    16 hours of operation

    equals 3072 customers per day

    and 30,720 gallons of gas.

    If all of the 15,000 current Tesla 3 owners who previously gassed up, lived by the same Costco that would equal 5 days of lost customers.

    and at an output of 3000 3's per week that would be equal to Costco losing one day of customers every week.

    this doesn't include all the existing Tesla models and all the other EVs on the road today.
     
  2. Derek Kessler

    Derek Kessler Active Member

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    There are more than 270 million cars registered in the United States, the overwhelming majority of them are traditional ICE vehicles. It will be a long time before BEVs have any impact on Costco's bottom line.

    And even then, they have the scale and capital that they could install banks of paid chargers in their lots and milk BEV drivers while they charge and shop.
     
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  3. ABCTG

    ABCTG Supporting Member

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    40% of Costco sales are in California, which is where the highest number of EVs are sold.

    Any slowdown in gas sales would first be noticed in CA.



    And Costco and any big box store would be wise to get ahead of the game by installing chargers, along with solar power and battery storage.
     
  4. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    Imagine the day the Costco gas line will only be 4 deep instead of 6 deep!
     
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  5. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    Technology adoption is exponential... even with the longer product life cycle of cars vs phones the transition from ICE => BEV will likely be much faster than most people expect.

    Screen Shot 2018-04-12 at 1.50.41 PM.png
     
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  6. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Costco did have charging stations, at least around here, and pulled them out about three years ago!
     
  7. Ampster

    Ampster Active Member

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    And in Torrance California the new Costco has about 5 charging station up front.
     
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  8. ABCTG

    ABCTG Supporting Member

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    I know they tried them; but they weren't used much. Also I remember Costco complaining along the lines of; "that "they"-the customers, didn't want to pay for the electricity, and expected it to be free."

    Citing a Lack of Usage, Costco Removes E.V. Chargers

    Definitely Costco could revisit the issue...
     
  9. jelly

    jelly Member

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    What level/speed charging are these?
     
  10. Ampster

    Ampster Active Member

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    I don't know. I assume standard L2.
     
  11. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    I think a more likely scenario is seeing overall California gas consumption going down before Costco specifically.

    The thing is, California gas consumption has been downtrending for a long time. Part of that is cars get better MPG, and part is that people were driving less after the recent recession. I think at this point it would be hard to figure out to what extent EVs factor into the number.

    I'll see if I can find the "daily gas consumption" chart I saw, and assume half of all EVs sold are in California, and see what the first order "loss of gasoline sales" might be.

    RT
     
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  12. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    California gasoline retail sales...

    [​IMG]

    So 4,478,000 gallons per day. Assume Tesla has sold 200,000 EVs in the U.S., with half of those in California. 100,000 Teslas in California. Throw in another 50,000 for other EV makers for pure BEVs (this is probably low), so 150,000 EVs total in California. Assuming 12,000 average miles per year, and they are replacing a 35mpg car, each EV reduces daily gasoline consumption by ~1 gallon per day.

    So 150,000 EVs reduce gas consumption by 150,000 gallons per day, out of 4,478,000 total sales.

    3.3%, actually more than I would have thought. This is only going to get bigger over time, and before much longer there will end up being fewer gasoline filling stations. Thats simple economics.

    The Model 3 ramp up will have an appreciable effect on gasoline sales due to sheer volume of cars being sold.

    RT
     
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  13. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Well-Known Member

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    Costco is smart. They are driven by offering value to their customers. My local Costco has just included Propane fueling stations to our local store. Great place to fill up your barbeque tanks.

    Imaging they will once again be offering EV charging. Probably waiting until they can figure the whole thing out as currently there are many different nozzle configurations with more higher speed connections being envisioned. Seems like every manufacturer has a different configuration to connect to charge.
     
  14. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

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    The difference with gas stations and EV charging stations is that most EVs can charge at home and really don't need to charge at Costco or elsewhere. The proportion of EV owners without home charging is a lot smaller than that of ICE car owners who don't have home fueling.

    Makes for a less compelling business model for L2 EV charge stations at Costco or other retailers. Give charging away as an incentive to visit the store or don't bother at all.
     
  15. Merrill

    Merrill Active Member

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    Yes, level 2 charging free or not makes no sense at a mall or big box store, you spend maybe 1 hour at the most so you would get 20 miles?
     
  16. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    An hour at most? Only 20 miles per hour?

    I've certainly spent more than an hour wandering around the mall. Just my weekly grocery trips can easily take >1 hour. L2 charging at 32A/208v might only be ~20 miles/hr with an X or S but what about 277v @ 48A with a 3 or 72A with a X/S? That's >50 miles of charge per hour; 277v is almost as common with commercial power as 208v.

    I was in Santa Fe and needed some juice to make it to the SC in Las Vegas. I found a Brew House that has a pair of 80A HPWCs. Instead of driving another 15 minutes each way to sit at an abandoned strip mall to charge for 30 minutes at the SC I was able to sit for an hour and have a nice dinner. L2 for the win. I stopped going to the Costco in Lubbock because they don't have public charging. I only need an additional ~15kWh to make it back home. Even if they put a supercharger in Lubbock it would be easier just to charge while I shop instead of an extra trip to the SC.

    I wouldn't discount the benefit of pubic L2. IMO it's a much more viable solution to city charging than L3. 'Opportunity charging' even at 20 miles/hr is probably more than most city dwellers would need. And often 6-10kWh is all you need to make it home...
     
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