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How long do EV main battery packs last before failure (not just manageable degradation)?

Sandy Monroe stated that the 4680 will last a gazillion years, and he would know.

Plus, in the video showing off the 4680, tesla played a lyric in the background “i will go a million miles” Seems pretty reasonable to assume that 4680 batteries will last many many decades and for a million miles due to improved heat discharge.

Can anyone tell me why I am wrong to think this?
If that is case, then Tesla certainly wouldn't have a problem providing a 500k mile & 15 year warranty on the 4680 batteries, right? After all that's only a fraction of the above stated miles and age, and they would be able to use that confidence to sell a lot of cars. Battery cycle life can be tested in a lab. Age is more tricky, and "gazillion" is just a bit of hubris. I'd like to see some actual statements from the manufacturer regarding any changes in battery durability, and I haven't seen any.
 
Sandy Monroe stated that the 4680 will last a gazillion years, and he would know.

Plus, in the video showing off the 4680, tesla played a lyric in the background “i will go a million miles” Seems pretty reasonable to assume that 4680 batteries will last many many decades and for a million miles due to improved heat discharge.

Can anyone tell me why I am wrong to think this?
While I like everything I've seen from Monroe, I don't believe he knows much about batteries, therefore, I don't put much faith in anything he says about them.
The mechanical parts of automobile manufacturing and design are more in his wheelhouse.
I don't think anyone knows for sure, how well the 4680, 2170, or even 18650 batteries or their particular chemistries, design factors, etc, will last over time and mileage. Time is pretty much impossible to simulate and test over quickly unless one fully understands the time-related factors that apply. Few, not even Dr. Dahn, really know a lot about this.
 
LFPs are not the only batteries that can last a 100 years. Tesla just this morning published a paper on a nickel based low power battery that can last a 100 years and a million miles…


Is there any chance that this chemistry is whats being used in 4680s. It would explain why tesla is pushing 4680 production so hard and planning to move everything over to 4680s in the coming years.
 
LFPs are not the only batteries that can last a 100 years. Tesla just this morning published a paper on a nickel based low power battery that can last a 100 years and a million miles…


Is there any chance that this chemistry is whats being used in 4680s. It would explain why tesla is pushing 4680 production so hard and planning to move everything over to 4680s in the coming years.
"The paper dives into the complex details surrounding a potential nickel-based battery chemistry that could last 100 years under the right conditions."
Since this is a research concept, I'd say it's not related to the 4680 cells. We've heard about potential battery innovations over time, however a concept, or a small sample in a lab is very different than a battery capable of being mass produced in a cost effective manner. Everything about the 4680 appears to be an effort at cost reduction.

If we ever do get an EV battery that lasts decades, it would be a game changer. You could effectively just upgrade your vehicle periodically, just like an aircraft, instead of replacing it. We are still far away from being able to do that.
 

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