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How Long for a Tesla with 400 Mile Range ? Vs. 500 Mile Range in a Decade !

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Quant, Nov 6, 2015.

  1. Quant

    Quant Member

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    Thought it would be worthwhile to explore progress and get opinions, in the battery efficiency and cost space, to project how long it will take Tesla to produce a 400 Mile Range EV..maybe with a Model 3 , which I expect will be the best candidate to get there fastest.

    If Elon thinks a 500 mile range Tesla is within reach in a decade, could a 400 mile range happen by year end 2020... I.e. within 5 years ?

    I believe Elon and JB are focused on getting the range to 400 miles with a Model 3, pretty darn fast. Why ? Because not only would it be a huge competitive advantage, BUT it would be go a very long way to solving the range anxiety issue !

    Even 350 mile range, for that matter, would be quite a boost, if doable by year end 2018.
     
  2. esk8mw

    esk8mw Active Member

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    I think 5 years is about right. Elon has said that he expects 5-10% improvements in range every year. Taking a 7.5% midpoint:

    282 (90D max range, approximately) * 1.075 = 303.15 in 2016
    303.15 * 1.075 = 325.89 in 2017
    325.89 * 1.075 = 350.33 in 2018
    350.33 * 1.075 = 376.60 in 2019
    376.60 * 1.075 = 404.85 in 2020
     
  3. chateauoaks

    chateauoaks Member

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    I recently watched a video of a prominent event with Elon that was shot a month or so ago in Europe (I think it was in the Netherlands). The question was asked when a Tesla would go 1000 kilometers on a charge. Elon replied with confidence that a Model S should reach 1000 K (621 miles) on a full charge in 2017! This is normal driving, non-hypermiling. Sorry, I don't remember the name of the vid but simply Google recent Elon vids a little bit and you should be able to locate it. Pretty cool!
     
  4. shokunin

    shokunin P85 & S40

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    That's pretty generous since we've seen less than 2% increase YoY since 2012. I don't think it's going to be YoY, but rather large jumps when the new cell sizes are produced giving an increase in density by 20%, but it's sort of a one-shot deal until the next advancement in chemistry, sizing, or physical increases in battery pack dimensions.
     
  5. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    I believe the 1000Km figure was hypermiling. There was a thread about that comment here and several people pointed out that the question came just after a discussion about hypermiling.

    There is a lot of speculation that Tesla will be able to pack about 30% more batteries into the same space once the Gigafactory is in full production. That would get the EPA range up to about 366 miles from a 90D today to about a 120D (117 if you want to pick nits). However Elon has said they will be increasing the pack size by about 5% a year. However, while it looks like he said that as a year to year increase, he may have meant as an average with big leaps some years and nothing the following year. That would make a bit more sense if the capacity estimates from the Gigafactory have any merit.

    JB Straubel has pointed out that batteries don't increase by anything like Moore's Law. He said it's a more chaotic process with sudden increases here and there and unexpected developments.

    To get to over 600 miles in one year would require doubling the capacity of the battery pack, which is not a reasonable estimate. While it may be possible some breakthrough will bring higher capacity batteries sooner than expected, chances are it will happen more gradually.

    I would like to see a real world 400 mile range. That puts the range on a single charge in the middle of the bell curve for ICE ranges and it's a very good range for the sorts of road trips I tend to make.
     
  6. hpjtv

    hpjtv Member

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  7. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    I agree. I think it will happen in leaps and bounds as the tech improves. The interest in improving batteries has taken off very quickly over the last last year. Thanks to our friends at Tesla.

     
  8. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    I remember it quite clearly, and that was about hypermiling. Within the past couple of months Elon said a 400 mile Tesla would be about 2020 (he may have said 4-5 years). I'm pretty sure the time he said it was actually in his finishing his answer to that same question.
     
  9. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    The Roadster battery upgrade offers about 330 miles of range...the 360 mile estimate from the blog was with other improvements they are not offering. The cost is $29k.

    Supposedly they could have made it a 400 mile pack or at least close...but the cost would have been (gulp) a lot higher.
     
  10. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I believe you are referring to a video of an interview done in Denmark, which I happened to watch today on YouTube. I think that the ranges Elon discussed were not for normal high speed driving. As others have said, battery improvements are gradual. Neither Elon nor JB have ever committed to large battery improvements in a short time frame, and two years is a short time frame in regards to battery technology.
     
  11. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Simple math shows they could have made a 82kWh pack using the Model S cells instead of a 70kWh using the LG Chem cells they are using (85 kWh * 6831 cells / 7104 cells = 82kWh). On range, that would means almost exactly 400 miles (330 * 82/70 = 440.7).
     
  12. Reeler

    Reeler 6 Years of Pure EV

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    Having driven a Nissan Leaf and Think City for years and dealing with 45-80 miles range, I think this obsession with range is not a big deal. Granted, a S70D is nice and more than I ever use in a day. I fancy myself driving cross-country, but never do--I fly. Should I want to drive cross-country, I will rent a car.

    The analogy I will use is the battery expansions that you can get for cell phones. They were once very popular, but not so much anymore. Once phones had batteries that would last a full day, I could care less about extra capacity. Some still add expansion batteries, which is what I liken these discussions to.

    I use my Model S all day and plug in at night, just like my cell phone. Do I care if my cell phone can go several days? No, as I plug it in nightly. I am not trolling here, but just want to put it into perspective in that almost no one will want 500 miles range in a day beyond a taxi driver.
     
  13. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    The reason BEVs are less than 1% of global auto sales is because we are in the equivalent of a 1995 cell phone not an iphone 6.


    When we get to 400 mile BEVs we will be where Smart phones that last 1.5 days of average use and nobody really cares about the battery.

    When we get a 300 mile BEV for $35k then BEVs will be approaching 40% market share.

    When we get a 400 mile BEV for $25k then BEVs will be approaching 95% market share.

    We will still have bitter enders with land lines and fax machines.
     
  14. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    There are still some industries that rely on FAX machines. My SO is a lawyer and we have to have one because faxes are still very common in the legal business. A lot of courts and county offices still aren't equipped to handle scanned documents in e-mails.

    As for the speed of adoption of BEVs, we will not see a ramp anywhere near as fast as cell phones. The smaller the device the higher the possibility new technology can have a dramatic impact in a short period. New technology in large things like cars take a lot longer for new technology to saturate into the market. Cell phones have become cheap enough they are fungible. Cell providers created mechanisms that made it even quicker to turn over cell phones for the latest and greatest. Cars are on the other end of that cost spectrum. The number of people who can find a couple of hundred dollars for a new cell phone is vastly more than people who can slap down $40K for a new car without come careful budgeting. In the US the average age of new car buyers is 49. Younger people don't have the money for new cars and buy used. Not only is it going to take a while to get battery production up to a level to supply 100 million BEVs a year (especially 400-500 mile BEVs), but it will take even longer for the older BEVs to percolate into the used car market in sufficient numbers to where they predominate there.

    I don't believe the range of BEVs will be the determining factor of market share. When the range is comparable to ICE, that will eliminate one of the last arguments against them, but that will just increase demand before the supply is there. When the range of BEVs approach 400 miles in cars costing $25K-$35K, the public will want them. Especially as the millennials start buying new cars (which is delayed from previous generations). They will probably be going for premiums because of lack of supply. Then suddenly the mainstream car makers will discover they missed the boat and start a crash program to expand BEV production, but it will take a while before anyone can build enough batteries to meet demand. Tesla will likely be in the strongest position building more BEVs than anyone with several production lines running flat out with long waiting lists.

    When that switch in demand happens pressure will be put on governments at all levels to build infrastructure for charging for people who can't charge in their garage (most because they don't have one). That's going to require a lot of capital investment and some places will drag their feet, while other areas will embrace the change. It will take time to build it all.

    Right now most car companies are only building BEVs for compliance cars and to please people who either get some incentive for driving an eco car (like HOV lane access in some areas), or they are environmentally conscious. They are built because they have to and sold to a minority of car buyers by dealers who really don't want to sell them. The good news is the car companies will have some experience with electric cars when the switch happens, but they won't be able to switch overnight and some car companies will probably go out of business because they can't make the change (or can't secure enough batteries in a market that is suddenly extremely tight with very high demand).
     
  15. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

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    I think the range obsession is quite funny and overall overrated. Fundamentally, I believe that range is irrelevant if a) you can cover your daily commute and b) there is a reasonably convenient long-distance travel option (aka Superchargers). So to me the current Leaf doesn't cut it, the 70D would be perfect. Beyond that, range is as "reasonable" a concern as horsepower, 0-to-60 times etc. some will like it, some won't.

    However, anybody coming from the ICE world, will obsess about this and I do understand this is a required process. I like to call it the Kubler-Ross cycle for EVs:

    1) Denial: Coming from the ICE world, the notion that you can't go 1000km on a single charge seems ridiculous and you just claim this would never work for you.

    2) Anger: You get frustrated with the ICE, the EVs (those damn charging times!!!) and while you cognitively understand that EVs are the future, you are frustrated with price / cost / range

    3) Bargaining: This is where threads like this pop up: Do you think it is possible? When will it be possible? How long do think it will take? If I go drafting, can I go longer? What if I make frequent short fuel stops?

    4) Depression: 1000miles per charge in a 20k USD car will never work!! EVs are doomed! What can I do???

    5) Acceptance: Hold on a minute, do I really need this range? Why spend the money if I never need it? Oh - you mean the car is "full" every morning? This means I don't actually need the range? Ah, there is a path now.

    Long story short: of course you can build a 1000 mile car today. But cost, convenience, weight and needs of consumers don't make that a financially viable car. Some days I wish Tesla would offer such a car just to being able to point to the fact that nobody ever orders it. But I fear some would order it anyways, go through the cycle above and then be disappointed they spent all that money on a car that would be way worse than a P90DL.
     
  16. mwulff

    mwulff Member

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    @SebastianR: I think you hit on an important point and that is that range really is not a problem in the "daily life" of EV ownership. Every Tesla has more than enough range for all daily tasks.

    Now when taking road trips the situation becomes more complicated, but a decent super-charger network and you are all set.

    When I bought my S85 I was convinced that we would need dual-chargers, chademo adapter, several socket adapters and a subscription to all charging networks everwhere.

    6 months later this is the situation:

    1. I have only plugged in to a public charging station 3 times. 2 of them were at a shopping mall that offers nice parking with free charging.

    2. I never bought the chademo adapter and never missed it.

    3. I didn't get the dual-chargers and have never missed them.

    4. I built 4 different socket adapters and have used 1 of them once.

    When I ordered the S70 did not exist so it was an 85 or a 60. Given those two I chose the 85 and that was the right choice. Today with the S70 available I think that would suffice without any issues at all.

    So at least for my particular location in Scandinavia range is a solved problem.
     
  17. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Member

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    I have a different view on Range Anxiety. I have never sat in a Tesla, let alone driven one ... although test drive is booked :). I definitely have range anxiety, although since I've been reading this forum, for the last week or so, that anxiety has reduced.

    If I commuted X miles [i.e. within the range of the vehicle] to work and back, and occasionally went on a longer journey that would be fine. I have a friend who has a low-range EV for that purpose and the manufacturer (I forget which brand, Renault perhaps?) provides him with an ICE hire card - it takes him seconds to do the paperwork to hire an ICE for the weekend / whatever, and its cheap enough as to also be comfortably affordable. Good for him :) and tax incentives here are in his favour (no Congestion Charge in London for EVs, lots of free parking and charging when he gets there)

    My situation, and those of my colleagues, is different. 50 mile, each way, commute to work but also the need to visit clients etc. frequently and those journeys are often 100 - 150 miles each way. This is UK ... we don't fly around the country much!! unless it is to the extremities as, for a day trip, check-in and risk of flight not running on time mucks things up. I've flown around the States lots on business - indeed, even from Newark to Philly - in my ignorance!and in my defence only once :) - because I looked at the flight time, which was an hour, but as you will surmise it was 45 minutes taxiing at each end rather than an hour's flying time!!!

    So I, and other "travelling salesmen/consultants" definitely need range, and spending half an hour in the working day at a supercharger does not appeal - we are always rushing around like the proverbial. I'm quite happy to use a super charger once in a while (sat here, not having owned on, I would put that at "once a month"), but for every 200 mile (there and back) journey that would not be acceptable.
     
  18. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    When new technologies comes along, not everyone is going to be served with the new technology. There are still some transportation jobs better suited to horses than any kind of motorized vehicles, such as going deep into back country where there are no roads, especially in mountainous terrain. Most large ranches in the US still use horses for some jobs, though they may trailer the horses part way to where they are needed.

    There is a small percentage of car users who need to drive a fair bit and waiting 1/2 hour at a supercharger every 200-250 miles is a time suck. And there are still many places where you're going to get somewhere where there aren't any superchargers and you'll have to use some sort of slower charging option.

    Car battery charges are getting faster and new battery chemistries will give better range and allow for faster charging, so the gap for people in your situation will shrink. However, one area that will be one of the last gaps filled will be long haul trucks. For local delivery trucks that sit idle for part of the day, all you need is enough battery to last through one day's work. But long haul trucks need to stay moving to make money and companies don't want to pay their truckers to sit and charge the truck. Some have suggested battery swaps, but many trucks would end up having several battery swaps a day and wear on the contacts would become a major maintenance problem, plus the swap stations would have to be placed where the trucks were likely going to stop.

    Personally, I don't go anywhere for a living. I'm lucky enough to work at home, but the company I work for is 700 miles away and I need to go there sometimes. My 95 year old father is about 900 miles away and I think I'll probably be making more trips there in his last years. He's in great shape for his age, but we've already had one health scare this year. My SO has family who lives near the company I work for, so she and I usually drive down there. We can make it in one 11-12 hour drive. With a 400+ mile ICE car, we only really need to stop for gas once and we usually eat a meal about that time, so a 400 mile BEV would be a seamless move for a trip to the company I work for. A 270-300 mile BEV requires a bit more planning and a bit more downtime "refueling".

    I have thought about the implications. It would make the day longer to do 2-3 supercharges on such a trip. It doesn't help that the superchargers in Oregon are poorly placed for an efficient run from Portland to the Bay Area in California. I expect it will probably improve, but right now one supercharger is only about 130 miles from home, and the next one is 270 miles. I would have to stop for a top up at the 130 mile supercharger to make the 270 mile one, even in a 90D. Even though the EPA range is around 285 miles, driving typical highway speeds on Interstate 5 will cut that down to about 240-250 miles, probably less if the trip is during a cold snap, or conversely I have to run the air conditioning in warmer parts of the year. If they put in a supercharger about 200 miles from home (which is likely at some point), that would make the trip more efficient in a 90D.

    On the other hand, the forced downtime will enable me to take a 1/2 nap if I'm getting road fatigue that would help me get through and be safer overall. My SO takes a long time to wake up and she starts to fade after dark, so I usually take the first and last legs of long trips, but the last time we made the long drive I started getting very sleepy about 50 miles from home and she had to take over. I have heard autopilot helps with fatigue on long trips too. My arms usually are killing me after a few hours from holding the wheel. It would be great to just have my hands at the ready in my lap.

    With all the other massive pluses to the Model S, I expect managing on a road trip is a minor thing that I can deal with. At its absolute worst it's only something I have to deal with a few times a year. The rest of the time I can fill my car in my garage and never have to gas up the car in the howling, frigid wind again! We get intense, cold winds here in the winter. They aren't constant, but it can be 3-4 days every few weeks.
     
  19. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    I suspect the first 400 non-hypermile Tesla will be the oft-rumored sports car with the then current 120 kWh battery, a .25 Cd, half the S's frontal area, and 3500 lb curb weight driven conservatively.
     
  20. autodidaddict

    autodidaddict Member

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    This is a great point. As long as I have enough range to make it from Supercharger to Supercharger and get from the last SC to my house on the way back from a trip, I don't really care if the max range is some huge number. Here's a great quote a friend of mine gave me when talking about this subject:

    Any capacity of the car's battery that exceeds the capacity of the driver's bladder is wasted capacity.
     

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