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How long is too long to make reserved customers wait?

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Oloron, Apr 6, 2016.

  1. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    I saw the announcement that Tesla plans to open up the Model X design studio to the public at large and have test drive vehicles available sometime around the end of April. I have a 70D on order and noticed that I was slightly (and irrationally) annoyed. Given that, I was curious what other people's reactions were.

    To be clear, when I ordered, the clearly stated timeframe was mid to late 2016. By any logical and realistic standard, as long as Tesla gets me an X by December 31st, they have fully lived up to their end of the deal -- no matter what else they are doing in the meantime. I also totally understand the multitude of reasons they are prioritizing 90's. So, my question has no bearing on what is "fair" in any absolute sense.

    That said, emotion isn't rational, so was curious what other people's reactions are. Where is the line that triggers a "huh, that doesn't feel fair" reaction for you? For whatever reason, the line for me seems to be having the cars in showrooms and at stores for test drives. ("You can make a car to just sit here, but you can't make the car I confirmed months ago?")

    Anyway, I was just curious about other people's reactions...

    p.s. To just be doubly clear, I've got no "real" complaint. While I'd love to get it sooner than later, I'm satisfied as long as they do what they said and this does mean more time for Tesla to get the bugs worked out. :) Just wondering if others have similar reactions and if theirs triggers in the same place as mine.
     
  2. Cyclone

    Cyclone Active Member

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    Full Disclosure: I am NOT an X reservation holder nor planning to purchase an X.

    For me, the "line in the sand" would be if they have started delivering any of the trim levels of the Model X. For instance, if they started delivering 70s, but not yours (even if you are "reserved"), I wouldn't be upset. But to have an advanced reservation in a trim level that hasn't even had a single delivery when they open up the design studio and orders to the public at-large would annoy me.
     
  3. timf

    timf Member

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    There's clearly an underlying issue preventing Tesla from building the 70Ds besides wanting to maximize profit margins. Even though you would think they could just throw in the same 70kWh battery from Model S and call it a day, it must not be that simple. They need to keep the production line going, and if they've run out of 90kWh orders from reservation holders the only solution is opening it up to the masses.
     
  4. digicool

    digicool Member

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    I would feel the same way as you do but after learning that some signature reservation holders are still waiting for their cars I think that is the line for unfairness. And some early delivered cars have some really fundamental issues and are parked at the service center for weeks.

    On the positive side, you car is more likely to be perfect than the earlier deliveries.
     
  5. vandacca

    vandacca Active Member

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    Tesla delaying 70d deliveries seems like a way to maximize profits. Delaying 5-seat variant might actually be due to the design not being complete.
     
  6. Ampster

    Ampster Member

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    To paraphrase the Dalai Lama, the answer to the OP's question is, as long as YOU want to wait.
     
  7. WilliamZ

    WilliamZ Member

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    My experiences with this waiting game is, as long as you pay up the $5K, Tesla really don't care informing you regularly. I am having a very hard time getting any information from Tesla. I sometimes find Google is a better source of getting information. Love the brand, and love the car, but very disappointed with the sales force and delivery.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. dwebb66

    dwebb66 Member

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    Did you have better communication before you placed your order and Your $5,000 become non-refundable?
     
  9. WilliamZ

    WilliamZ Member

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    I have read somewhere that a guy was refused/rejected from ordering a X. I like Tesla, and I want my X, and I rest my case.
     
  10. CaliX

    CaliX Member

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    I will bet good money you will never see a X 70D which is why they are not building them yet. I was at the SC today and they were talking about the release of the updated S next week. I think they will release a 75-80, 90 and 100 along with the updated S.
     
  11. WilliamZ

    WilliamZ Member

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    If you paid up the $5K like every Resv. holder out there, you should be traded equally. Understanding prioritizing 90's is one thing, but it doesn't mean is reasonable or fair. How much harder is to a 70D incomparison to 90D on production aspect, I would guess not much. It is somewhat unfair to you, I would say. However, I believe Tesla is putting the 70D on the table because it makes the starting price that much more acceptable to general public. Just like the 5seat X, it is a standard feature, but it seems like everyone who purchased the X at this point either paid for the optional 6 or optional 7 seats. There is a good chance is I am wrong, but for me, I like to think the 70D and 5 seats are there for a sample reason... ... to make the starting price look better.
     
  12. dwebb66

    dwebb66 Member

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    When you ordered to 70D, what was the estimated delivery? I believe that it stated 'later half of 2016' or so,etching similar. You can hope for sooner, but I would set my expectations for at least a couple more months.
     
  13. WilliamZ

    WilliamZ Member

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    70D is not the ideal driving range that I was looking for, so I ordered mine as 90D.
     
  14. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    Oh, I totally agree. They get me something by the end of the year and they've lived up to their promises. Full stop.

    That said, its not going to stop a small flash of irrational irritation from time to time.
     
    • Funny x 1
  15. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

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    It all comes down to money. The profit margin on a base model is a lot less than on any other Model X. As for the delivery estimate, the dates all shifted two months two the right. This was true for almost all deliveries because of the initial manufacturing problems. If you were told later half of 2016 you still have another 6-8 months before they are late. As long as they can sell quanties of P90D and 90D they will prioritize them before the 70D.
     
  16. Falkirk

    Falkirk Member

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    I'm still new here and not in the market for the X (but I have a deposit on the 3 at least!) and was thinking if Tesla opens up the configurator for all today does that mean they've gone through most of the waiting list of people looking for the 90kWh version? I think they have built about 2700 to the end of March and adding 750 a week now but I thought they had 30,000+ reservations.

    I'm curious if most picked the 70kWh version or many cancelled? I'm hoping it's not like that as Tesla needs the S and X to help get me to the 3 one day!
     
  17. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    All told, Tesla has sent about 7000 Model X into production at this point. (some delivered, some still in production, all 90's, all US)

    The difference between that and the 30,000 reservations is: (along with my very rough estimates, very liberally rounded)
    - International orders (~40% = 12,000), leaving 18,000 US reservations
    - Cancellations (~10% = 2000), leaving 16,000 reservations
    - Reservations waiting to Order to test drive, save up, let bugs to be fixed, etc. (~30% = 5000), leaving 11,000 reservations
    - Orders for 70's (~10% = 1000), leaving 10,000 reservations
    - Orders for 5 seat models (~10% = 1000), leaving 9,000 reservations

    So of that very rough estimation, we would only expect around 9,000 (realistically, +/- several thousand) to be eligible for production at this point. Given that the actual number is currently 7,000 that seems wholly reasonable, especially if Tesla releases another batch of VIN's this week for any remaining 90's.
     
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  18. AB4EJ

    AB4EJ Member

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    ... and expectations. To me, it seems like a lot of people have had unrealistic expectations on Tesla's ability to deliver (which is surprising, considering their history - we should know what to expect by now). I worked in Mercedes assembly plant for 15 years (much like the Fremont plant)and I can tell you, the pressure is incredible - lots of orders out there, and a difficult-to-build new product - QC is working overtime, and the repair shop is backed up, to say nothing of suppliers having problems to provide good parts.These kinds of things are the root cause of delays.

    Again, on the Mercedes side, we had plenty of cases where a fancy new model would appear, and people would order it with the expectation of waiting 2 years for it (like with the Model 3) - and since expectations were set, there was not disappointment. Maybe Tesla's real problem is management of expectations, where they have a balancing act with what their pronouncements do to the stock price.
     
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  19. Falkirk

    Falkirk Member

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    Thanks for that great perspective on the numbers! Makes a lot more sense now but still curious how someone ordering today would fit into the production plans depending on what they order and where they are. I guess it's a preview of what might happen with the 3 as well with all the various factors playing into the reservation list.
     
  20. Shorty

    Shorty Member

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    As someone who waited 3.5 years or my model s I can't feel that badly for you!

    The s' were shipped exactly the same way, higher margin cars first and then the 'strippers' later on down the road.
     

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