How long should I wait to buy my Model S?

[Rodolfo Paiz]

I have a Model X, and it's been great... does everything it promised to do. But I've concluded that I prefer a sedan and my next car will be a Model S again. I'd be buying either a 100D or P100D.

Now, when should I buy that new Model S, is the question. Is there any known/expected upgrade or change, like a transition to newer battery tech, a longer-range battery, newer autopilot/camera/radar hardware, or any new upgrade on the horizon, such that I should wait until some particular time to buy my new Model S? Or do we not expect any significant upgrades in the next 6-12 months?

I'd like to keep this next S for longer than I usually keep cars, which is why I'd like to make sure I don't buy it just before a significant upgrade. And since my X is quite recent (just 22 months and <13K miles), I'm not in any particular hurry.

Any thoughts welcome.

 

[DriveMe]

Changes that are expected to happen this year:

1. Supercharger V3 (about twice faster, but it’s not clear which cars will benefit)
2. AP3 hardware (new computer, but current cars are supposed to be upgradable)
3. Interior refresh (long overdue)

Neither one is critical, but you decide how important they are for you.

 

[75Shappyt]

I would wait just one day and then go get it, there will always be updates and new things being added, you would be waiting forever.

 

[bob_p]

We purchased our first Tesla (2012 S P85) in Jan 2013. And while we'd go through periods of feature envy every time Tesla would introduce new features or increase battery capacity - we waited until Tesla produced an S 100D before buying our second Tesla. While the other features were nice to have, the additional range of he 100D would allow us to make our most frequent road trip without having to stop at a supercharger.

Tesla will introduce changes to S/3/X vehicles this year - and they'll likely show up without any or much advance warning - Tesla will announce the new features and immediately put them into the manufacturing process and open up configurations, with a period when pending orders are adjusted to potentially add the new features.

There will be a new battery pack for the S/X line, shifting to the same battery design used in the Model 3. This might result in greater range (increased battery capacity) or Tesla could decide to stay with 100 KWh as the max battery size (which Musk stated when the 100 packs came out) and instead go for a less expensive and lighter 100 battery pack.

V3 supercharger has been on the horizon for several years. To take full advantage of the faster charging will likely require the new S/X battery pack. We almost decided to wait to purchase our S 100D 2 years ago until the V3 supercharging came out, and decided that it really wouldn't have that great of an impact for us, because we usually only take road trips on the order of 200 to 300 miles one way once or twice a month - and even if we could have faster supercharging, it really wouldn't save us much travel time.

The biggest changes will likely be coming via software upgrades - as Tesla continues to improve AutoPilot, and (hopefully) addresses the backlog of requests for media player, UI and navigation functionality.

The AP3 processor upgrade will be useful only if you decide to purchase FSD (Full Self Driving). If you don't expect to purchase FSD, then you don't need the faster AP processor, since the current AP2.5 processor is fast enough to handle EAP (Enhanced AutoPilot). If you do purchase FSD with a new vehicle, Tesla will include the AP3 processor upgrade for free, when it becomes available. So there really isn't any benefit of delaying a purchase just to get AP3.

As for other potential changes (interior refresh, …), Tesla can introduce those at any time - and will likely continue making small changes each year. But those changes usually aren't that important.

We went through this decision process last summer, and decided not to wait any longer and purchased an X 100D as our 2nd vehicle, even though we knew new battery packs and V3 supercharging would likely be coming in the next 12-18 months.

If you play the waiting game - and keep delaying your purchase until the next wave of improvements are introduced for S/X, you'll likely wait forever - because Tesla will always have something new coming out "soon"...

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

I would wait just one day and then go get it, there will always be updates and new things being added, you would be waiting forever.

Sometimes it matters. While I loved my P85 Model S, I was two weeks early... I would have much preferred to get the P85+ but I missed the deadline. Sometimes, these upgrades are worth waiting for or planning for. I've definitely decided to make the change, but now spending a couple of days checking out the possible scenarios makes sense.

The "P" decision is also a bit harder than I thought. My P85 did 0-60 in 4.2, and the regular 100D now does that sprint in 4.1. The P85 was plenty fast enough for me... I'm going to have to take a test drive to see how big a difference the extra performance makes, and whether I care enough to spend the additional $40,000 on that. Back when I bought my first S, the upgrade to P was barely $10,000 I think: a much easier pill to swallow.

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

There will be a new battery pack for the S/X line, shifting to the same battery design used in the Model 3. This might result in greater range (increased battery capacity) or Tesla could decide to stay with 100 KWh as the max battery size (which Musk stated when the 100 packs came out) and instead go for a less expensive and lighter 100 battery pack.

[...] If you play the waiting game - and keep delaying your purchase until the next wave of improvements are introduced for S/X, you'll likely wait forever - because Tesla will always have something new coming out "soon"...

Thanks for the detail and thoughtful post, Bob.

To me, the two things that are potentially very attractive are the battery pack change (more capacity would mean fewer stops, and my wife loathes spending time waiting for the car to charge on road trips; or lighter weight would make the car more nimble and more energy-efficient) and the interior refresh. Either one of those might make a real difference for me.

I agree about the waiting game, but that's not my situation. In 7.5 years I've had three cars... if anything, I'm not waiting long enough.

 

[bob_p]

The larger batter pack will primarily have an impact only on the first supercharging stop during a trip - or will allow you to skip supercharging completely if you have enough range to drive without having to make a stop.

If you're driving on a long trip, and will need multiple supercharger stops, the difference between having a 100 or 110 battery pack won't be that significant.

As for the lighter weight it may shave a .1 second or two off of the 0-60 acceleration, but that won't be noticeable. Our S 100D is lighter than our X 100D, and surprisingly the X seems fairly close to the acceleration of our S. In both cases, 0-60 in 4.x seconds is faster than you can use in most driving conditions...

Since we've gone through the purchase decision twice in the past two years - my advice would be to take a test drive of the vehicle you're most likely interested in - Tesla may let you take a 24 hour test drive - and then see if you're content with the features of the current vehicles. We did this before purchasing our X 100D last year - and even if Tesla does make improvements to the X this year, we'll be satisfied in our purchase decision.

And the AutoPilot software just keeps getting better with each release, now able to do most of the driving when we're on limited access highways...

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

Nearly all our "long" trips are around 300 miles, so a little additional range might save us from Supercharger stops entirely. Or, a lighter battery pack might reduce the energy consumption slightly (hence also increasing range slightly). While I agree that the impact of a lighter battery on acceleration would be almost negligible, I'll admit that I somehow seem to "need" the full 4.x acceleration a few times every day...

I do like the idea of requesting a 24-hour test drive. That might really help with the P decision.

 

[HankLloydRight]

2019 is now the third (or fourth?) year people have been predicting an "imminent Model S/X refresh".

 

[BrooksCA]

Model S/X interior refresh expected to simplify interior vis a vis Model 3

Tesla is planning a big Model S/Model X interior refresh in Q3 2019 – full refresh in 2021

 

[PhilDavid]

2019 is now the third (or fourth?) year people have been predicting an "imminent Model S/X refresh".

But you have to agree that it is now more imminent than 3 years ago!

 

[Kuhz]

But you have to agree that it is now more imminent than 3 years ago!

Yum we can now say “extra imminent”

 

[HankLloydRight]

But you have to agree that it is now more imminent than 3 years ago!

"It depends upon what the meaning of the word 'is' is."

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

Scheduled an overnight P100D loan from Tesla for this Friday. Can't wait to see the kids' faces at launch time...

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

Be sure to show the kids all the drag racing videos of the MS P100D vs supercars on YouTube. Enjoy

My next car will be the 2020 roadster. I like the 0 to 60 in under 2 secs and the 600+ mile range. Don’t really care about cosmetic/interior refresh or FSD much. Absolutely LOVE my S P100D and I am not a car person. Never thought I could love a car this much.

 

[bob_p]

When the 100 battery packs were introduced, Musk stated the 100 packs might be the largest packs they would put on S/X.

While it's possible Tesla could introduce a larger pack for S/X, there's also a strong possibility they'll stay with 100 as the top capacity, and focus on driving the battery cost down - which will help them maintain profitability, and possibly lower prices (which they've already done as the US EV tax credit starts going away).

Compared to road trips with our S P85, our S & X 100D's have enough added range to make road trips much easier, able to drive as far as the humans inside the car want to go between charging (and restroom) stops.

We might see a larger battery pack in the next 12-24 months, though my guess is we're more likely to see an improved 100 pack that will support V3 supercharging, and a price decrease for the 100D's.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I totally agree with your post @bob_p . With V3 supercharging on the horizon and possibly lighter and cheaper batteries, there's almost no need to go more than 100kWh in the MS/MX.

And even in the Next Gen Roadster -- who needs 200kWh of batteries and 600+ miles of range for a car like that? Maybe put in 120kWh of batteries (380 miles of range) and make the car lighter(faster) and add a little more space to the back seat so it's actually usable.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I have a Model X, and it's been great... does everything it promised to do. But I've concluded that I prefer a sedan and my next car will be a Model S again. I'd be buying either a 100D or P100D.

Now, when should I buy that new Model S, is the question. Is there any known/expected upgrade or change, like a transition to newer battery tech, a longer-range battery, newer autopilot/camera/radar hardware, or any new upgrade on the horizon, such that I should wait until some particular time to buy my new Model S? Or do we not expect any significant upgrades in the next 6-12 months?

I'd like to keep this next S for longer than I usually keep cars, which is why I'd like to make sure I don't buy it just before a significant upgrade. And since my X is quite recent (just 22 months and <13K miles), I'm not in any particular hurry.

Any thoughts welcome.

I understand your concerns about buying one and missing an upgrade or new feature. I have bought 5 Tesla’s (modelS, modelX, roadster and 2 model3s. All cars have been upgraded by tesla (except roadster) but I have not been disappointed and would not have waited longer for any. I guess based on my experience and your concerns, buy the modelS when it’s discontinued and you will be sure to get the final version

 

[jerry33]

When purchasing any hi-tech item, the secrets to happiness are
1) Purchase the best you can afford, and never look at another ad or review until your purchase no longer does what you purchased it for.
2) Never purchase on new feature promises--they don't always happen.
3) Purchasing just after a major upgrade increases the length of time before a new upgrade happens, but also increases the chances of initial problems, and is when the price is the highest. It's fine to do this as long as you're aware.
4) If you can purchase it, it's already obsolete.

 

[HankLloydRight]

My rule is always buy the flagship car of the just-previous generation, and if possible, used.

That way, you get what was very recently the top of the top of the line car, at near or better than 50% discount, it still performs like crazy, you know exactly what you're getting and not getting. Then drive it like mad for two or three years, and then repeat.

You might not get the-absolute-best-fast-car-right-now, but you still get something really amazing, and at a huge discount, too. You'll eventually get what we don't yet know what they're going to release, but you just have to wait a couple of years to upgrade into that.