Tam
Well-Known Member
China Zeekr is getting ready to sell its 621-mile range Zeeker 001 compact SUV and 009 minivan in a few months (Q1 2023).
The price is unknown but the current 455 mile CLTC range Zeeker 001 is about $54,000.
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How long until we get a 400+ mile model Y?
- Thread starter Westcoast42
- Start date
The price is unknown but the current 455 mile CLTC range Zeeker 001 is about $54,000.
It depends on how much more it costs though.....When the 1000 mile versions costs twice what the 300 mile version does. Yes, Yes I would.
I'm not sure the convenience argument flies. I'm not ever going to drive 1000 miles without stopping for multiple bio breaks, to eat, stretch my legs, etc. (Also, I'm really not interested in getting a DVT.)
Driving Supercharger profit is not why they are doing it. There are a number of reasons, for example:
I am sure there are plenty more reasons.
- Cost: It would cost a lot more to double battery capacity
- Efficiency: Doubling batter capacity would increase the weight reducing efficiency. So it would cost you more money per mile travelled.
- Weight: Weight would be increased, requiring upgrading lots of components. Tires, suspension, structure, etc.
- Battery supply: Using twice as many cells per car with limited cell supply would cut the number of cars you could deliver in half. (Thereby increasing costs since you get less volume to spread costs across.)
- Size: You have to make the vehicle bigger to have somewhere to put all of those batteries.
So magical thinking. Got it.
But if a 1000 mile version in 3 years costs the same as the 300 mile one now. That would mean that the 300 mile one would cost significantly less in three years. So I would still buy the 300 mile variant. (And would have cheaper operating costs as a result.)
You can apply the same logic you used for 200 to 300 miles....a majority of our driving never needs 300, so why not have it at 200?
I do agree, right now, adding a large cost in the form of batteries to go from 300 to 400 is probably not worth it for most....But if that cost wasn't as significant, people would probably pay it.
At some point, hopefully battery technology gets to the point where we can get far more range...Or if not range, fewer/less batteries for range we have...and a lot of that need will depend on our infrastructure...is there enough, will it charge fast enough etc...
Umm.. No. I think you are confusing kilometers and miles. Even the article you link says 455 CLTC miles. What is the conversion from CLTC to EPA? This article says that CLTC is over WLTP by ~20%. So that drops the 455 mile range to 380 miles WLTP. Then cut that by 11% to get to an EPA range of ~337 miles. Wow, just about the same as the Model Y.
edit: Ok, the 621 mile CLTC range is a different future variant. But that would likely be ~460 EPA miles. And the article I found says Q2 of 2023, I suspect that that timeline will slip. Also, that won't be sold in the US.
Adding 70 more miles to get 400 or more will take efficiency improvements and/or increased battery capacity. The Model Y is already very efficient for its size, but maybe Tesla can eke out another 20 miles in efficiency improvements. That would leave 50 miles worth of extra battery capacity needed, a 15% increase. My guess it that it will take Tesla 2-4 years to get their 4680 pack to that level. So maybe 3-5 years before Tesla offers a 400+ mile Model Y.
Of course, 330 miles is fine for almost every use case. In my opinion, most customers will not choose a longer range option due to the unneeded extra cost and weight. However there are use cases for longer range, like long distance towing for example. Also, it would be nice to have the option to make your meal stop at locations without superchargers if you want. To be an EV leader will require options for longer range. Of course, Tesla does have this option today with the Model S LR.
Of course, 330 miles is fine for almost every use case. In my opinion, most customers will not choose a longer range option due to the unneeded extra cost and weight. However there are use cases for longer range, like long distance towing for example. Also, it would be nice to have the option to make your meal stop at locations without superchargers if you want. To be an EV leader will require options for longer range. Of course, Tesla does have this option today with the Model S LR.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Motor Authority says 621 miles (China testing, not EPA but when converted, it will still beat the longest range in EPA that we have now).
"The range estimates are based on the test cycle used in China, but even with the stricter test cycle used by the EPA in the U.S., the arrival of the Qilin battery means we could be looking at some competition for the current range king, the 520-mile Lucid Air Dream Edition Range."
Zeekr taps CATL for promised 621-mile range Qilin battery
Zeekr plans to use CATL's Qilin battery in its 001 hot hatch and new 009 minivan.
Depends how long it takes to charge the battery. The Nio for example. When I saw Bjorn's 1000km challenge with the Nio ES8, that thing charged so damn slow, I don't think I would want a Nio even if it got 4-500 miles of range.
Tam
Well-Known Member
How about 10 to 80% in 10 minutes for your Zeekr 001 equipped with a 1000 km 621 mile (China, not EPA) battery?
Zeekr goes to production on 1,000-km electric car using CATL batteries
Geely's electric brand Zeekr has teamed up with Chinese battery giant CATL on an ultra-long-range version of its Zeekr 001 shooting brake, resulting in a production electric car capable of doing more than 1,000 km (621 miles) on a single charge.
newatlas.com
I stopped reading half way down page one... fascinating to me that people who were crowing about Tesla's getting 300+ miles of range while the competition was "only" getting 260ish (a 40 mile EPA range gap that is closer to a 20 mile range gap at highway speeds in the real world) now scoff at the idea of a competitor with 400 miles of range being a big deal. The same people who are saying Tesla doesn't need 400 miles of range in the Y will be the first ones bursting with pride if Tesla makes a 400 mile range Y before a competitor makes a $65,000 car with 400 miles of range.
I don't know how long it will be, but if competitors reach 400 miles EPA range in a $65,000 car (real car, not an Aptera) before Tesla does, I think that is a big deal. Wouldn't a full size pack made from the new 4680 cells have enough capacity for 400 EPA miles? If so, at least offer it as an option!
Keith
I don't know how long it will be, but if competitors reach 400 miles EPA range in a $65,000 car (real car, not an Aptera) before Tesla does, I think that is a big deal. Wouldn't a full size pack made from the new 4680 cells have enough capacity for 400 EPA miles? If so, at least offer it as an option!
Keith
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If they deliver as promise, that will be awesome. I have my doubts tho. It says their battery density is 255wh/kg. The 4680's density is 300 wh/kg. Even the 2170's density is 247 wh/kg. That means the zeekr's battery is going to be enormous/heavy AF. But if they can charge that thing from 10-80 in 10 minutes, then awesome!How about 10 to 80% in 10 minutes for your Zeekr 001 equipped with a 1000 km 621 mile (China, not EPA) battery?
Zeekr goes to production on 1,000-km electric car using CATL batteries
Geely's electric brand Zeekr has teamed up with Chinese battery giant CATL on an ultra-long-range version of its Zeekr 001 shooting brake, resulting in a production electric car capable of doing more than 1,000 km (621 miles) on a single charge.
Were you asleep this year when they doubled electricity fees at superchargers?
The end-goal is to install solar (which they own) to run the superchargers (which they own). Who do you suppose will be paying for all the usage and infrastructure?
When 10% of the fleet is using FSD and 90% is using supercharging to some degree, there is more profit to be had at those stations than in software sales.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Tesla has no reason to develop a 400 mile Model Y in 2023. There’s zero competitive or economical reason to do so.
Stuffing endless tons of lithium into 7,000 pound cars to achieve longer range that people only use/need a tiny fraction of the time is not good business sense.
Stuffing endless tons of lithium into 7,000 pound cars to achieve longer range that people only use/need a tiny fraction of the time is not good business sense.
I was very concerned about range when I took the plunge to full electric with my 2020 MY AWD. I made spreadsheets, read countless articles and posts. Was 316 miles when new, 290 after a couple of years enough? What about cold? Traffic jams?
Anyway, after more than two years, I'd say my 316 initial range was more than enough. I don't think I'd pay more for more range. I have plenty, and more range means a heavier battery that I'm always carrying. I'm in MD, so superchargers are plentiful. If they were sparse, then it'd be different.
Anyway, after more than two years, I'd say my 316 initial range was more than enough. I don't think I'd pay more for more range. I have plenty, and more range means a heavier battery that I'm always carrying. I'm in MD, so superchargers are plentiful. If they were sparse, then it'd be different.
Destiny1701
22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
If you think Tesla will remain just a car company in 15-20 yrs…well..that’s not where Elon is going with it. It may not be today but eventually. Autonomous driving/software will always be the holy grail but global energy infrastructure for mass transport?
Tesla Energy is where this company is going.
Natural evolution.
Sustainable transport for ALL transportation…not just for Tesla cars. They will keep building more and more chargers and open them all up to every type of manufacturer there is. All that power will come at a fee and will generate.
For now yes agreed…software unllocks are massive profit.
When customers stop buying the vehicle with its current specs. The demand for the Y far outstrips the supply; so, Tesla has no incentive to increase costs by upping the battery pack. Tesla’s goal recently in battery development has been to maintain range while decreasing materials and cost. I would guess they would try to make a leap forward in charging speed before they look at increasing range.
As technology improves, we will inevitably reach 400 or 500 miles of range (or more). When? No idea, but it’s going to come. Smartphone and laptop batteries get better and last longer every year, why wouldn’t EV batteries do the same?
If anything, higher ranges and faster charging times are a must for a wide spread adoption of EVs, but we know that won’t be for another decade, at least.
A lot of people like to drive long stretches so I can definitely see the benefits of having a car with 450mi of EPA range ie 350 real life use.
If anything, higher ranges and faster charging times are a must for a wide spread adoption of EVs, but we know that won’t be for another decade, at least.
A lot of people like to drive long stretches so I can definitely see the benefits of having a car with 450mi of EPA range ie 350 real life use.
Selling products and software will always be their profit center. Not reselling commodities.
A hypothetical RWD model with the 82kwh LR battery could probably get very close
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
The current MY LR has an estimated 318 miles of range, so 90% to 20% (or 70%) provides then 222 miles,
But if you plan to drive to a nice lookout campground or cabin where you want to spend the weekend,
you cannot be far away from a supercharger, or public L2 charger, for more than 111 miles,
And this is for a new car, while there would be about 5% to 10% degradation after few years.
And also without considering winter and bad weather or heavy wind,
and the real range of a car loaded with four adults and their gears.
So driving off any main highway is still a big limitation for EVs, unless you can carry some solar panels or a trailer with some batteries.
Maybe EVs used only for local commute and short weekend trips only need about 300 miles of range,
but as soon as you plan doing a longer trip, in states or areas with few superchargers,
using an SUV or a Van, in winter, a 500 miles EV range seems a requirement.
Destiny1701
22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
Sure…for now.
So imagine one traditional automaker also happened to also own the largest gas station chain in the world.
Buddy it’s far more than just Tesla ‘automotive’.
Bigger picture.
Gas stations don’t make money selling gas. They make it selling beer and Cheetos. Even the largest chains.
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