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How many 3/31 line waiters were there?

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Beagle, Apr 29, 2018.

  1. Beagle

    Beagle Member

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    I thought the number was about 150K. Was I wrong? I'm wondering because I seem to be one of the last to get a configuration invitation, and some later 'on-line' people are starting to get cars. The highest VINs that I see are in the 20-21K range. If my numbers are in the ballpark, that would mean that 130K people took a pass. That boggles my mind.

    Any thoughts?
     
  2. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    I believe the 150k was first day both in-store and on-line. Most day 1 reservations have received their invites (both in-store and on-line reservations).

    If you reserved in-store and have not received an invite yet, you should reach out to Tesla at this point (do you have first production check off under delivery estimate? I don't think it makes a difference but you never know).
     
  3. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    Worldwide.
     
  4. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    There were ~115,000 line-waiters globally.
     
  5. vigge50

    vigge50 Member

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    No, Elon mention 115k about half an hour in to the presentation and by that time it had been possible to order online about 1,5 hour.
     
  6. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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  7. Trips

    Trips "Boring bonehead questions are not cool. Next?"

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    In the US and Canada there were roughly 39,000 that reserved one + the line waiters that ordered two. So there might have been 40,000 or so individuals. This included any owners that also waited in line. All of this is based on the Reservation_ID.

    Reservation_ID starting numbers
    East Coast: 370XXX
    Central: 375XXX
    Mountain: 381XXX
    West Coast: 384XXX
    Online: 409xxx
     
  8. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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    Don't forget that they already built cars for employees, and previous owners who were NOT day 1 reservers.

    So trying to match current VINs to number of day 1 reservers that ordered isn't going to be exact.
     
  9. Beagle

    Beagle Member

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    Thanks, folks. It looks like my memory slipped a gear or two in two years. I mis-stated in my original post; I have my VIN, just not the car yet. It does make sense that one out of two people have either cancelled or are waiting for a version of the car that hasn't been produced yet, but I really wonder if any profit can still be made on a $35K in 6 months or a year.
     
  10. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    #10 Moderatefan, Apr 30, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2018
    180K.
    There's chart and data points here Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly

    If 180K total on day 1, we can probably assume around 50% or 90K are U.S. orders.
    If 1/3 of people are ordering and the rest are holding out for awd and sr, that'd be around 30K people willing to order from day 1.
    But we don't know how many have cancelled and how many took delivery non-day-1(employees and S/X owners). Kind of hard to interpret the numbers correctly.
     
  11. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    I guess it is what you consider "Day 1." For me Day 1 ended 3/31/16, 11:59 pm PST [because that is the time zone that matters :)]. The chart is hard to read but appears close to 150k for 3/31. 180k is based on first 24 hours. I know, it's all semantics.
     

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