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How many 3/31 line waiters were there?

I thought the number was about 150K. Was I wrong? I'm wondering because I seem to be one of the last to get a configuration invitation, and some later 'on-line' people are starting to get cars. The highest VINs that I see are in the 20-21K range. If my numbers are in the ballpark, that would mean that 130K people took a pass. That boggles my mind.

Any thoughts?


Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
Los Angeles
I believe the 150k was first day both in-store and on-line. Most day 1 reservations have received their invites (both in-store and on-line reservations).

If you reserved in-store and have not received an invite yet, you should reach out to Tesla at this point (do you have first production check off under delivery estimate? I don't think it makes a difference but you never know).


"Boring bonehead questions are not cool. Next?"
Sep 22, 2015
Omaha, NE
In the US and Canada there were roughly 39,000 that reserved one + the line waiters that ordered two. So there might have been 40,000 or so individuals. This included any owners that also waited in line. All of this is based on the Reservation_ID.

Reservation_ID starting numbers
East Coast: 370XXX
Central: 375XXX
Mountain: 381XXX
West Coast: 384XXX
Online: 409xxx
Thanks, folks. It looks like my memory slipped a gear or two in two years. I mis-stated in my original post; I have my VIN, just not the car yet. It does make sense that one out of two people have either cancelled or are waiting for a version of the car that hasn't been produced yet, but I really wonder if any profit can still be made on a $35K in 6 months or a year.
I thought the number was about 150K
There's chart and data points here Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly

If my numbers are in the ballpark, that would mean that 130K people took a pass.
If 180K total on day 1, we can probably assume around 50% or 90K are U.S. orders.
If 1/3 of people are ordering and the rest are holding out for awd and sr, that'd be around 30K people willing to order from day 1.
But we don't know how many have cancelled and how many took delivery non-day-1(employees and S/X owners). Kind of hard to interpret the numbers correctly.
Last edited:


Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
Los Angeles

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