How many cars will Tesla deliver in Q4?

[David Johansson]

As I understand it, the official target is 2,500-3,000 cars delivered in Q4.

Is there someone here who'd like to make an educated guess as to what the actual number will be? I can't really make sense of the Model-S deliveries thread, but maybe someone else can?

 

[Citizen-T]

Rumor is that they are producing 500 a week right now. Deliveries are harder to gauge, but it sounds like they have a shot at making or exceeding the 3k number in production.

 

[Doug_G]

I'd bet that Elon and the gang are trying very hard to beat that target.

 

[Vger]

I heard that they are going to try to deliver another 1,500 cars in the last 3 weeks of the year. Production no longer seems to be the issue, now delivery is the bottleneck-- hence the "delivery events."

 

[tander]

I heard that they are going to try to deliver another 1,500 cars in the last 3 weeks of the year. Production no longer seems to be the issue, now delivery is the bottleneck-- hence the "delivery events."

I take it with a grain of salt, but I was talking to a rep at my local store a couple days ago, and he said that they were trying to exceed production numbers and sort of prove what the factory can do, but that they are having a tough time logistically with deliveries because it takes a lot of time/planning/manpower in order to do custom deliveries for thousands of cars, so they are scrambling to get delivery teams together.

This might belong in another thread, but regarding production I was wondering if anyone knows if the assembly line for the X is already built or if that will be done over the next year?

 

[Grendal]

I take it with a grain of salt, but I was talking to a rep at my local store a couple days ago, and he said that they were trying to exceed production numbers and sort of prove what the factory can do, but that they are having a tough time logistically with deliveries because it takes a lot of time/planning/manpower in order to do custom deliveries for thousands of cars, so they are scrambling to get delivery teams together.

This might belong in another thread, but regarding production I was wondering if anyone knows if the assembly line for the X is already built or if that will be done over the next year?

Yes, the bottleneck is delivering all the cars they can make.

I doubt the the X's line is built. The smart move for Tesla is to confirm full production for the Model S before spending a huge amount of money on the Model X. I'd say that Tesla will be focusing on the Model X early next year. Alpha production mules should be hitting the road in March-April-ish. Betas should show up May-June-ish. The first production X's should come off the line in July or August. Of course, that's just my WAG but it makes business sense.

 

[Citizen-T]

Yes, the bottleneck is delivering all the cars they can make.

I doubt the the X's line is built. The smart move for Tesla is to confirm full production for the Model S before spending a huge amount of money on the Model X. I'd say that Tesla will be focusing on the Model X early next year. Alpha production mules should be hitting the road in March-April-ish. Betas should show up May-June-ish. The first production X's should come off the line in July or August. Of course, that's just my WAG but it makes business sense.

I don't think we'll see a production X until Jan 2014.

 

[49er]

I wonder how they planned "door step" delivery for 20k cars/year in the first place.

 

[JakeP]

I wonder how they planned "door step" delivery for 20k cars/year in the first place.

Seriously, this has always boggled my mind, logistically. That is 400 cars per week, on average. Can they really staff that many Deliver specialists? Even if half of the cars are factory/service center pickup, it is a major challenge.

 

[49er]

Seriously, this has always boggled my mind, logistically. That is 400 cars per week, on average. Can they really staff that many Deliver specialists? Even if half of the cars are factory/service center pickup, it is a major challenge.

Not to mention the shipping logistics. It's not something that needs to be in their core competency. Maybe at some point they will change the delivery model.

 

[Enadler]

Getting back on topic I would guess 3457 S's delivered in the 4th quarter!

 

[dmckinstry]

Not to mention the shipping logistics. It's not something that needs to be in their core competency. Maybe at some point they will change the delivery model.

I would think at some point (at least after they get more stores and service center established) deliveries would be done at stores or service centers. I drove about 90 miles to pick up my Prius in 2005, since that was the closest dealer I could find that had what I wanted.

 

[Grendal]

Not to mention the shipping logistics. It's not something that needs to be in their core competency. Maybe at some point they will change the delivery model.

The way they've set up their business plan - they can't. If they try and do anything other than the way they are doing it now then they open themselves up to being hammered by the dealership network. Their current system is what allows them to bypass the dealership network.

And back on topic, Tesla will beat the Q4 estimate. By how much, I don't know.

 

[DrDave]

2800 total for the year, so minus the ~250 prior, I say 2550 for Q4 deliveries.

 

[SteveG3]

that's a question I've been wondering about the past week.

I've been trying to use the spreadsheet Timdorr maintains (link below to his post that has link for spreadsheet). my guess is 3,000 for the year, so call it 2750 for the quarter. you can see on his spreadsheet reservation sequence #5520 is the highest to have been assigned a VIN, #2499. it also looks like RS# 10280 is the highest that got the call offering early delivery. so I figure roughly 10% of those reservationists inbetween these two got this call and said yes... meaning another 500 VINs to be delivered in 2012. so my 3,000 guess. (fwiw, shorts and perhaps some analysts may argue that cars delivered a few days into 2013 in Tesla's scramble here shouldn't be counted as Q4 deliveries, but they'll count as sales, and I'm putting them in my 3,000 for the year). perhaps 10% is too conservative... I'm trying to manage my own expectations :wink:

post two in this link has link to Timdorr's spreadsheet (it's titled Tesla Model S Delivery Data spreadsheet)

Model S Delivery Update

 

[aronth5]

Yes, the bottleneck is delivering all the cars they can make.

I doubt the the X's line is built. The smart move for Tesla is to confirm full production for the Model S before spending a huge amount of money on the Model X. I'd say that Tesla will be focusing on the Model X early next year. Alpha production mules should be hitting the road in March-April-ish. Betas should show up May-June-ish. The first production X's should come off the line in July or August. Of course, that's just my WAG but it makes business sense.

It would be awesome if the Model X was available in 2013 but even Tesla's web site clearly states 2014

 

[SteveG3]

Rumor is that they are producing 500 a week right now. Deliveries are harder to gauge, but it sounds like they have a shot at making or exceeding the 3k number in production.

that would be pretty exciting news Citizen-T... is there anything more you can say about that?

 

[Citizen-T]

that would be pretty exciting news Citizen-T... is there anything more you can say about that?

I saw it in other threads, just spreading the rumor, I'll try to find it and link.

- - - Updated - - -

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/10686-Model-S-Delivery-Dates-and-Sequencing?p=230650&viewfull=1#post230650

 

[SteveG3]

thanks for quick response Citizen-T

 

[NotTarts]

The way they've set up their business plan - they can't. If they try and do anything other than the way they are doing it now then they open themselves up to being hammered by the dealership network. Their current system is what allows them to bypass the dealership network.

Well, not exactly. It's already possible to pick up the car from the factory or a service centre. The only aspect of the process they need to maintain is the concept of exclusively ordering online.