How many cars will Tesla deliver in Q4?

[Robert.Boston]

I don't see why 400 personal deliveries per week can't be achieved and maintained. 40 Delivery Specialists with 10 cars/week on average (some days you'll only get one delivered, but others you can knock down three if they are clustered). Logistics shouldn't be an issue. My car was shipped by UPS, which offers auto logistics as a line of business. No reason for Tesla to get into that business themselves, at least not for now.

My DS hinted that deliveries are really sizzling. I am betting that Tesla will (narrowly) exceed guidance.

 

[vfx]

I'd bet that Elon and the gang are trying very hard to beat that target.

Underpromise and overdeliver. Elon hits those kind of front page marks. Usually with some nigging problems but the larger statement wins out.

No one read the 17th page retraction articles.

 

[tander]

Underpromise and overdeliver. Elon hits those kind of front page marks. Usually with some nigging problems but the larger statement wins out.

No one read the 17th page retraction articles.

To further the spirit of this thread (speculation), anybody want to take WAG about when we are going to get an East Coast Supercharger event or tweet with a photo saying "Model S 3000" or something? Also, anybody else notice in the Nat Geo video at around 22min there is a sign on the factory wall that says 10,000 Model S Vehicles Manufactured? I am guessing it's just a motivational thing but who knows, that would be one heck of an over-deliver.

 

[Citizen-T]

To further the spirit of this thread (speculation), anybody want to take WAG about when we are going to get an East Coast Supercharger event or tweet with a photo saying "Model S 3000" or something? Also, anybody else notice in the Nat Geo video at around 22min there is a sign on the factory wall that says 10,000 Model S Vehicles Manufactured? I am guessing it's just a motivational thing but who knows, that would be one heck of an over-deliver.

There was an unconfirmed report that the East coast chargers are built and just awaiting inspection. We will supposedly hear within 10 days.

 

[tander]

There was an unconfirmed report that the East coast chargers are built and just awaiting inspection. We will supposedly hear within 10 days.

Was that ten days from something in particular? I recall a "by the end of December" statement from an interview or something regarding the East Coast SuperChargers, but I could see how that would be delayed a little bit.

 

[Babylonfive]

Are we taking guesses? Mine is 4250.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I'm of a mind that even with the higher production rate Tesla will really have to stretch to get over 3,000 deliveries for the year. Especially with the holidays, I'm thinking that they will deliver ~2,500 cars in Q4, or ~2,750 for 2012. I've seen one report of a VIN in the ~2,700 range for a late December delivery, but with the delays from the time the car comes off the line until it reaches its destination, I think 2,700 for the year sounds right, with another 600-700 built and in the pipeline for early January delivery.

But in January, I think we'll start to see Tesla really hit its stride, with 2,000+ 2013 deliveries before the February conference call.

 

[wstuff]

3216 + 1

 

[agelston]

So my conservative estimate is 2250 Produced, 1648 Delivered. 400 Cars/Week production reached just in time.

I calculated Delivered vs Produced using the Delivered and Produced numbers from the most recent 10-k and just assumed the lag would stay constant.

Because Elon said that 8k/year is breakeven, I'm assuming his "cashflow positive" comment happened at about the moment they started delivering. Delivery rate of 150/week around Dec 4th

My Estimate (graph)
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 1.09.52 AM.png

Data Table
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 1.09.16 AM.png

Thoughts?

 

[NotTarts]

So my conservative estimate is 2250 Produced, 1648 Delivered. 400 Cars/Week production reached just in time.

I calculated Delivered vs Produced using the Delivered and Produced numbers from the most recent 10-k and just assumed the lag would stay constant.

Because Elon said that 8k/year is breakeven, I'm assuming his "cashflow positive" comment happened at about the moment they started delivering. Delivery rate of 150/week around Dec 4th

My Estimate (graph)
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 1.09.52 AM.png

Data Table
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 1.09.16 AM.png

Thoughts?

I think your numbers are off by about a month. According to this report Tesla was producing 200 cars per week in early November (you've said 120 in early November and 200 in early December). Tesla also estimated an early December number of 400 cars per week, unless something has changed that.

 

[agelston]

I think your numbers are off by about a month. According to this report Tesla was producing 200 cars per week in early November (you've said 120 in early November and 200 in early December). Tesla also estimated an early December number of 400 cars per week, unless something has changed that.

Your Right, I don't know how I missed that 8-k.

Ok then I can totally see them getting to their targets and even up to 450/week by EOY.

I have 2450 Delivered, 3344 Produced in Q4.

Graph
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-17%20at%202.12.34%20AM.png

Data Table
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-17%20at%202.12.16%20AM.png

 

[ppl]

I believe this discussion to be the most important one to investors. I don't believe the absolute number very important although I believe it will be very close to 3000. Vin in the 2700 range to be delivered with a week to go. If doing 400 per week will go above 3000. The really important number is the production RATE. The absolute number very short time dependent. An extra week at 400 or one less week at 400 impacts number a lot. The investment community is convinced goal is only 20000 cars per year. That number was only stated to indicate margin with that number produced. Factory was producing 6000 cars a week before closed in past. They will produce more than 400 per week and if they can ramp up to 500 or 600 per week before conference call we will all have to step back because of the heat generated by this stock. The absolute number at jan 1st will not seem important then

 

[Norbert]

I believe this discussion to be the most important one to investors. I don't believe the absolute number very important although I believe it will be very close to 3000. Vin in the 2700 range to be delivered with a week to go. If doing 400 per week will go above 3000. The really important number is the production RATE. The absolute number very short time dependent. An extra week at 400 or one less week at 400 impacts number a lot. The investment community is convinced goal is only 20000 cars per year. That number was only stated to indicate margin with that number produced. Factory was producing 6000 cars a week before closed in past. They will produce more than 400 per week and if they can ramp up to 500 or 600 per week before conference call we will all have to step back because of the heat generated by this stock. The absolute number at jan 1st will not seem important then

Agreed. With cash flow already being positive, the (steady) production rate achieved will be much more important for the company's future.

 

[gregincal]

Your Right, I don't know how I missed that 8-k.

Ok then I can totally see them getting to their targets and even up to 450/week by EOY.

I have 2450 Delivered, 3344 Produced in Q4.

Graph
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-12-17%20at%202.12.34%20AM.png

Data Table
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 2.12.16 AM.png

I'd generally agree with this produced number, the delivered number is the wildcard. They're trying to maximize deliveries by various means, so the lag could be shorter. You still have them short of their 2500-3000 delivered in Q4 goal, and I'd be very surprised if that turned out to be the case. My guess is that they will report at least 2750 delivered (the midpoint of their goal), and probably closer to 3000. I wouldn't be surprised if they fudge the definition of "delivered" a bit. It sounds like if purchase is completed and payed for and the car direct shipped to the customer (no DS at the other end), they may count it as delivered as soon as it is loaded on the truck (don't most car companies use "cars sold" anyway?).

 

[ppl]

Recent delivery

With almost two weeks to go till the end of year they just delivered a vin 3052 car. If they deliver at rate they produce could possibly get to 3700 cars. Really though this absolute number doesn't matter but the rate of production does

 

[joefee]

2890 delivered in Q4

 

[tander]

Do we know how many cars have been delivered so far?

 

[derekt75]

Seriously, this has always boggled my mind, logistically. That is 400 cars per week, on average. Can they really staff that many Deliver specialists? Even if half of the cars are factory/service center pickup, it is a major challenge.

For whatever it's worth, I was given a VIN earlier this week and am hoping to pick up my car before the end of the year.
After getting an email from one product specialist (Mike), a 2nd (Stone) informed me that he was taking over some of Mike's accounts to spread out the load. Stone has always responded promptly to me, and whether they're a bottleneck or not, they certainly aren't making me feel like they're a bottleneck.

 

[mattjn]

Wasn't the plant they bought used to make around 6K cars a week when it was for Toyota? Tesla has plenty of space to ramp production, they are only hampered by lack of funds. 400 cars/week should not be a problem once they get seriously going.

 

[montgom626]

400 cars/week should not be a problem once they get seriously going.

Should be easy. They are projecting 2000 a month, so 500 a week is easy.