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How many cars will Tesla deliver in Q4?

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Wasn't the plant they bought used to make around 6K cars a week when it was for Toyota? Tesla has plenty of space to ramp production, they are only hampered by lack of funds. 400 cars/week should not be a problem once they get seriously going.

They should already be at 400 cars a week and I'm sure they want to get it up to 500. Size of the plant is not the issue. The number of robots, what they do, and how long it takes for them to do each step is important. Then there are certain things that only a human being can do, such as thread wiring from one end of the car to the other. All of it takes time. Soon they will be focusing on removing errors from the process so they can go even faster.
 
Curious why musk so quiet. When will production numbers be released. Will it be at close of qtr or at conference call. Concerned, everyone saying he has to watch out for sec but that issue only relates to where he discloses not when. It would be nice to state what rate of production is now
 
Curious why musk so quiet. When will production numbers be released. Will it be at close of qtr or at conference call. Concerned, everyone saying he has to watch out for sec but that issue only relates to where he discloses not when. It would be nice to state what rate of production is now

I'm sure he wants to make a big media splash, and this close to Christmas is not the time to do that. Nobody is paying attention to this kind of news this week.

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I really hope they beat their lowered guidance on 2500 to 3000 cars delivered in Q4. If they miss this it's going to be negative for the stock. It's really hard to tell if they're going to hit that guidance or not because there's not a way to tell how many they've really delivered. Not all customers post that they actually had a delivery.
 
I really hope they beat their lowered guidance on 2500 to 3000 cars delivered in Q4. If they miss this it's going to be negative for the stock. It's really hard to tell if they're going to hit that guidance or not because there's not a way to tell how many they've really delivered. Not all customers post that they actually had a delivery.
I believe the important point in the report will NOT be the number of cars delivered but rather what production rate they have reached. An extra week at 400 cars per week or one week less at that rate will be a large swing on deliveries. However the real news would be if they reach production rate of 500 or 600 cars per week. In a rapidly growing company the last qtr is almost meaningless. Whether they delivered 2000 or 3000 cars will not move the price as much as proving they will deliver 6500 to 7800 cars the next qtr. it will also be important to show reservation numbers still climbing at a similar rate given the price increase. Now that they are delivering cars and getting some income they should consider some conventional advertising like maybe tv Super Bowl
 
FWIW I just viewed a you tube vid here today posted on this site where someone picked up there car @ Fremont and was doing the induction with a very pretty oriental delivery specialist and he said he was told they are doing 200 per week and aiming for 400 per week next year. That is the first have heard of that, i was under the impression that they were very close to 400 per week already so shock and awe for me if that is true. Funny realization is I always thought they went from 5 cars a week to close to 400 pretty darn quick, I'm with the rest of you, whats the danger in listing daily or weekly production totals unless they are really low?
 
...they should consider some conventional advertising like maybe tv Super Bowl

Complete waste of money. There's no need for it, whatsoever. It's more prudent to put that money into getting Model X tooled and produced, and continuing R&D on Gen III.

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I'm with the rest of you, whats the danger in listing daily or weekly production totals unless they are really low?

The same danger as not saying anything at all: None.

In the end, it's all irrelevant. I'm shaking my head that there are still people who want Tesla to be Ford/GM/Like everyone else. Why can't you simply embrace the fact they are not like any other car company and be happy with that/those differences?
 
Krugerrand "In the end, it's all irrelevant. I'm shaking my head that there are still people who want Tesla to be Ford/GM/Like everyone else. Why can't you simply embrace the fact they are not like any other car company and be happy with that/those differences?"

I didn't say i wanted Tesla to be Gm or FORD, far from it, but for a company that prides itself on being different ,TRANSPARENCY is a great place to start, I also am an investor over the 100k area and also a reservation holder waiting for my car. So go ahead and shake your head, I brought forth a question on this thread and am looking for an intelligent answer if anyone actually knows the production rate as of today. I don't think anyone outside the company does.
 
@ 400/week in my opinion.

Krugerrand "In the end, it's all irrelevant. I'm shaking my head that there are still people who want Tesla to be Ford/GM/Like everyone else. Why can't you simply embrace the fact they are not like any other car company and be happy with that/those differences?"

I didn't say i wanted Tesla to be Gm or FORD, far from it, but for a company that prides itself on being different ,TRANSPARENCY is a great place to start, I also am an investor over the 100k area and also a reservation holder waiting for my car. So go ahead and shake your head, I brought forth a question on this thread and am looking for an intelligent answer if anyone actually knows the production rate as of today. I don't think anyone outside the company does.

I saw that video today. I think these guys were given "the official" production rate to state per TM mgmt. TM has already said they are at 200/wk over a month ago. Also, I had a TM rep tell me over 3 weeks ago that they are already at 400/week. I believe him. He directly told me he's at fremont a lot. I think that TM mgmt has since told employees not to comment on the production rate. I think tesla wants to surprise to the upside of 400. That's what I hope anyways. I'm a six figure investor too. I hope I'm right. I know long term TM will exceed the streets expectation but I'd like to have a surprise during the feb earning call. That would be great.
 
I didn't say i wanted Tesla to be Gm or FORD, far from it, but for a company that prides itself on being different ,TRANSPARENCY is a great place to start, I also am an investor over the 100k area and also a reservation holder waiting for my car. So go ahead and shake your head, I brought forth a question on this thread and am looking for an intelligent answer if anyone actually knows the production rate as of today. I don't think anyone outside the company does.

My apologies if my opinion wasn't of the intelligent variety. Thanks so much for letting me know.

FYI, you're not the only investor in the room.
 
Now that they are delivering cars and getting some income they should consider some conventional advertising like maybe tv Super Bowl

With over 15,000 cars waiting to be delivered, Tesla still does not have a lack of people wanting their product. Tesla has a production, supply of certain outsourced parts, and delivery of produced cars problem. Advertising would build their reservation list (not exactly a bad thing) but they will have completely sold out all of next years production by March or April anyway. Even if Tesla increases production to 500 cars a week they will still sell out all of next years production by June or July. That leaves them with a six month waiting period. And that's considering the daily reservation list doesn't increase from what it is now. I'd say it's likely to increase even more with more and more cars on the road. Tesla has said that they would prefer a two to three month wait. Demand is far outstripping capability for the near future.

So the long winded answer is that the Tesla stores, word of mouth, and the cars themselves are their way of advertising to the public for now.
 
With over 15,000 cars waiting to be delivered, Tesla still does not have a lack of people wanting their product. Tesla has a production, supply of certain outsourced parts, and delivery of produced cars problem. Advertising would build their reservation list (not exactly a bad thing) but they will have completely sold out all of next years production by March or April anyway. Even if Tesla increases production to 500 cars a week they will still sell out all of next years production by June or July. That leaves them with a six month waiting period. And that's considering the daily reservation list doesn't increase from what it is now. I'd say it's likely to increase even more with more and more cars on the road. Tesla has said that they would prefer a two to three month wait. Demand is far outstripping capability for the near future.

So the long winded answer is that the Tesla stores, word of mouth, and the cars themselves are their way of advertising to the public for now.
There is no harm in increasing demand beyond what they can currently produce. That would command a higher price for the car. Just don't promise premature delivery dates. Does anyone remember the original apple commercial, I do it was money spent in developing the brand, name and demand. That still carries over to today when other pcs are seen as commodities that are interchangeable. Getting development money will not be issue if huge demand. If demand high enough could even see stories about resales exceeding price paid, that would be large issue. I cannot wait to see tv ads
 
Krugerrand ...I brought forth a question on this thread and am looking for an intelligent answer if anyone actually knows the production rate as of today. I don't think anyone outside the company does.


I think I understand you wstuff. I wish people that throw out numbers would cite where they got them from. This would help us identify rumors vs facts.

On Dec 24, I read they are producing about 200 a week and by the end of the year, 400. This came from Tesla's Communications Manager.
http://www.jconline.com/article/20121223/NEWS/312230027/Tesla-owner-s-electric-cars-a-gas
 
On Dec 24, I read they are producing about 200 a week and by the end of the year, 400. This came from Tesla's Communications Manager.
http://www.jconline.com/article/20121223/NEWS/312230027/Tesla-owner-s-electric-cars-a-gas
Although that article was published on 12/24, we don't know when the interviews were conducted. This is the sort of feel-good/style/shopping piece that a newspaper could sit on for weeks, waiting for a slow news day.
 
There is no harm in increasing demand beyond what they can currently produce. That would command a higher price for the car. Just don't promise premature delivery dates. Does anyone remember the original apple commercial, I do it was money spent in developing the brand, name and demand. That still carries over to today when other pcs are seen as commodities that are interchangeable. Getting development money will not be issue if huge demand. If demand high enough could even see stories about resales exceeding price paid, that would be large issue. I cannot wait to see tv ads
There is absolutely a cost to creating demand they cannot meet. People who want to buy a product and cannot get frustrated and unhappy instead of being indifferent. They tell all their friends that you shouldn't consider one, I tried to buy it and would have had to wait a year. They need to get down to a 3 month backlog or so before they start serious advertising.