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I was raised in Grand Forks been to Winipeg many times. How much range do you loose when it gets below zero? With AWD ice and snow shouldn't be a problem.
No problems with Ice and Snow with the original tires, even in pretty bad snow conditions. Had it slip two or three times but just normal winter driving. Will replace with the Michelin Cross Climate + tires once the originals need replacing.
As for mileage, in the very cold, I figure about 300 KM or ~200 Miles (66% of rated) is max. Using the Tesla charging %, I make sure to have 21% left upon arrival and that seems to provide enough margin for error. On one trip from Baxter=>Bemidji=>Grand Forks, I arrived with 1% left. I was very glad that I spent the extra time at the L2 charger at the Bemidji tourist center. That was when I decided that 21% left @ arrival was my magic number