Really? So a $3K MCU is easy and inexpensive to repair? What about the 58 other servos and motors in the car? My Lexus has nowhere near the complexity of the my MS. The only thing less complex is the power part of the drive train.
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Really? So a $3K MCU is easy and inexpensive to repair? What about the 58 other servos and motors in the car? My Lexus has nowhere near the complexity of the my MS. The only thing less complex is the power part of the drive train.
Hundreds of little changes for better reliability, fit and finish, and cost. Elon once said they average 20 changes per week.
A new car will have the refresh nose cone (better aerodynamics) with the new LED adaptive lights, HEPA filter and fixed glass roof options, smaller Frunk, better seats, and of course AP2 with the eight cameras and promise of FSDC eventually.
In theory - a MCU should never go out. It's. It a wear part. Yes, there have been some stories of some going out. However, it's not a given that at 100k miles they are no good anymore.
Small risk in my opinion. And if I'd did go out, in theory again, it should be the last time.
Motors (door handles) - yes they will wear over time. All the other electronic components shouldn't wear.
I also consider $3k inexpensive for a $100k car. Now if the car was worth $5k. The car would be trashed/parted.
The more common MCU problems people are having are actually bubbles/leaks in the LCD screen (root cause speculation is its due to temperature swings on the large size of the LCD). Up until very recently that required an entire MCU swap vs a screen replacement. Rumor has it Tesla now offers just a screen replacement for less $$, but I don't know if anyone has had it done yet. Until they solve that design problem, it will be something that has to be replaced periodically at least in hot climates.
Bio defense mode, new nose cone, adaptive headlights, white leather, all-glass roof and larger battery are all I can think of.
But you're going to see more than a $20k price delta between a 100D and an older 85DThe 100D starts at $97k and goes up once you add options (leather, paint color, roof, wheels, etc.).
I think it depends on which options you need to have vs. nice to have, but yes, your right. A 100D would probably be closer to $105-$115 depending on your options.
This is the stuff that I really wonder how to put a value on. I read these stories about people needing 10 new door handles, and a bunch of other odds and ends. IF the newer ones are much more reliable, even to the tune of 50% more reliable, that also dramatically reduces the gap between new and CPO. I have no idea how to quantify or even qualify it, but have to assume those hundreds of little changes are all done to correct issues.
To correct issues, or to save money or improve the experience, yes.
Figuring out how to value that is a real challenge.
Personally, I put a lot of value on AP2 or later self driving capability (once Tesla sorts it out,) which drives you to new anyway, and on HEPA filtration (didn't think it was a huge deal when I ordered, but it turned out to be one of my favorite features, never smelling anything.)
Of course, I'm also expecting a few more major changes this year, so I'm going to wait until the end of the year or early next year before I think about upgrading.
in 8 years or 10 years it is not a 100k car anymore. Probably and this is a wild guess a 10k-15k car. And as you just said it if a 5k repair is necessary the car will most likely be scrapped. Therefore you just confirmed my point, It's unlikely to see Teslas that are 15 years and older that will still be going strong. And over the 30 years that I read earlier I can only laugh.
My gut feeling is that as much as Elon loves to innovate, and make changes, he is going to have to slow down the changes once Model 3 comes out. If they really are going to sell 500,000 of these in the first year and a half, which it looks like they will, they have to start thinking about scale in production, scale in service. And all the little changes will at least have to slow down. Of course they can make as many software changes as they want, and that is great, but the hardware changes will have to slow down IMO.
I think at some point we start to see what happened with mobile phones, there is only so much a phone can do, so you make some performance improvements over time, but the rate of improvement has slowed dramatically. I have had every iPhone since 3G, and the day a new one came out up to 6, I got the newest one. I have no desire to get 6s or even 7, because the changes don't excite me anymore. I suspect Tesla will get to that point too.
Not true even in theory. The banning of lead based solders has resulted in a dramatic increase in electronic failures resulting from defective solder joints that spread over time and "whisker" growth that causes shorts. I've had far more expensive electronic failures over the years than I have had mechanical failures do to wear and tear.
I sold my last Lexus with 334K miles on it and it had never been repaired for any reason. Lots of moving and lubricated parts all functioning perfectly for 1/3 of a million miles. It's probably got another 100K miles on it by this point.
Hmm, kbb dealer trade-in on my 2007 SC430 is 22K right now(private party is more). It was $63K new so that's still more than 1/3rd after 10 years. You think the Tesla will really be worth only 1/10th of what it was new after 10 years? Can you find a 4 year Tesla for sale for less than half of what it was new? The next 6 years will have far less depreciation in dollar amounts than the first 4 years.
More or less, yes. I think so. Higher priced luxury cars seem to depreciate faster. But I'm not an expert.
If I take a 2007 Mercedes S class with 150k miles (15k/year is average, right?) it's worth $10k private property on KBB or $8,764 dealer trade in. MSRP was $86k new (and that's base, once you add on features, I'd guess it compares to a 100k Tesla). So that's about 10% after 10 years.
There are some cars that are outliers, obviously. I don't expect Tesla to be one until they resolve all the reliability and repair cost issues.
Mercedes is notorious for very expensive electrical problems after just a few years. Their mechanicals hold up much better but I wouldn't touch a 10 year old Mercedes for free let alone 10%. It's not uncommon to see a Mercedes where the cost to fix the electrical problems exceeds the value of the car.
You think Tesla is going to be different? It's a high end car, expensive so it depreciates faster, with expensive components to fix when they break.
Since you don't like Mercedes, how about Audi?
2007 Audi S8 (MSRP $116k), 115k miles, dealer trade for very good condition $9,575. Less than 10%.
2007 Audi A8L (MSRP $72k), 115k miles, dealer trade for very good condition $5,176. Less than 10%.
Or BMW?
2007 BMW 7 (MSRP $75k), 115k miles, dealer trade for very good condition $3,905. Less than 10%.
I got close with a 2013 P85 CPO from Tesla for $58k. I figure it was north of 100k new based in the options. I have seen P85s on their site for $54k since then.
Except that 4 year old $85K Model S's are still selling for $50K+ while a Mercedes has less than 50% residual after 3 years. Seems Tesla prices are holding quite well.
That's because Tesla gives you another 4 years of warranty. How much are 8 year Tesla's selling for that don't have ANY warranty? We don't know yet.
We can argue back and forth all day. I think 10% is reasonable for 10 years given the expensive components involved and lack of repair facilities (which I expect to change), you don't think it's reasonable.
Time will tell.
Also, it seems you're comparing CPO Tesla's to used Mercedes. Here's a 2013 Tesla for $45k private sale. Dealer trade in would be even lower. So Tesla is not too far off from Mercedes in regards to used pricing.
And here are CPO S-class Mercedes selling for $50k-$78k which is comparable to Tesla's CPO pricing.
And here are CPO S-class Mercedes selling for $50k-$78k which is comparable to Tesla's CPO pricing.
you will see that once Model 3 is out, meaning there is a real electric car available for the mass market, then the price for older Model S will dip.
