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How many Model 3 should Tesla make the first Year? Poll

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by AUSinator, Apr 7, 2016.

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How many model 3's should Tesla make on ave per week for the first year?

  1. 500 -1000

    2 vote(s)
    5.1%
  2. 1000 - 1500

    4 vote(s)
    10.3%
  3. 1500 - 2000

    3 vote(s)
    7.7%
  4. 2000 - 2500

    7 vote(s)
    17.9%
  5. 2500 - 3000

    5 vote(s)
    12.8%
  6. 4000

    1 vote(s)
    2.6%
  7. 5000

    6 vote(s)
    15.4%
  8. 6000

    2 vote(s)
    5.1%
  9. 7000

    1 vote(s)
    2.6%
  10. 8000 or even more

    8 vote(s)
    20.5%
  1. AUSinator

    AUSinator Member

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    #1 AUSinator, Apr 7, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2016
    Poll from the first production car of the assembly line 1 year from then.
    Considering they will have more 1/2 million orders by the time the first car goes off the assembly line. Considering Tesla is prioritizing region before order time( west US then East US then Europe & Asia then countries with right hand drive last). Considering the opportunity as none of the Germans will have a high volume M3 competitor until sometime in the 20ties. And what about the right hand countries? Australia was the first to place an deposit do they need to wait until 2020- 2022 many years after everybody else gets the car. It will be an old car by then. Will then Australia get the Facelift version before M3 number 2 comes out or what? Considering lastly and most importantly that deposits are refundable.
     
  2. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    Clarify what is meant by the "first year". Calendar year? First 12 months of production regardless of calendar year? Also, the number will likely ramp up over time. Are we supposed to estimate over an entire year and then take the average?
     
  3. AUSinator

    AUSinator Member

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    1 year from the date the first customers car comes of the assembly line.
     
  4. StraightDave

    StraightDave Member

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    I thought it was reported Tesla won't deliver first M3 until end of FY 2017? I'm not sure how production will work but Tesla sill has to generate A LOT more cash to deliver as promised.
     
  5. Dave Garaffa

    Dave Garaffa Member

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    #5 Dave Garaffa, Apr 7, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2016
    Plant capacity for one week times a fudge factor for increased speed/volume being new.
    (500,000 / 52) * .70
     
  6. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    Also, just to clarify, the poll says "should". So if I'm reading it correctly, this is a poll about what they _should_ make, not what they _will_ make?
     
  7. AUSinator

    AUSinator Member

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    Exactly right what you think they should make not what you reckon they will make
     
  8. Boourns

    Boourns Member

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    Maybe I don't get the question, but isn't the answer that they should make as many as possible?
     
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  9. Dogwhistle

    Dogwhistle Member

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    Should? All of them! Will? 70k for 2018
     
  10. NC-3

    NC-3 Member

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    Assuming a capacity of 500,00 per year when factory 100% operational...
    If Tesla can avg slightly better than 50% the first year (which would be huge 250,000)- rounded up my guesstimate from 4,807 to 5,000 per week.
     
  11. Steepler2k

    Steepler2k Member

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    I'd say 75000 cars in the first production year. Probably closer to 125000 for calendar year 2018.
     
  12. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    #12 Skotty, Apr 7, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2016
    As a manufacturer, you need to try to strike a balance. They probably don't want to be able to build them all the first year, as they would likely end up having way more production capacity to build than they would probably need on all subsequent years, which would mean a lot of wasted capacity. Plus they probably want to take it a little easy the first few months in order to address any production issues. On the other hand, you don't want production to be too slow either, as then people would start getting upset at how long the orders are taking and sales would be lost.

    For these reasons, I was thinking they should shoot for maybe 150K the first full year of production. Then use the flow of orders during that year to help decide how much to increase it the following year.

    150K would be an average of 2885 per week. I thus voted accordingly. Note that the first few months of slow production will drag down the average. I would think production rate at the end of the first year would actually be upwards of 4000-4500 per week.
     
  13. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    A s**tload.
     

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