TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

How many Model 3s were built this week?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by voip-ninja, Aug 4, 2017.

?

How many Model 3s did Tesla build this week

Poll closed Aug 11, 2017.
  1. 0-50

    83.9%
  2. 51-100

    12.5%
  3. 100-200

    3.6%
  4. 200+

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. voip-ninja

    voip-ninja Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2012
    Messages:
    412
    I'm curious what people think. Obviously ramp has not happened but that doesn't mean they couldn't have already started producing in real numbers.
     
    • Informative x 1
  2. FreeOfPge

    FreeOfPge Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2013
    Messages:
    366
    Location:
    CA
    If anything like Model S, very few. I'd guess [without much evidence] that we'll see maybe 100 this month, then ~500 in Sept, followed by a 'production delay' in Oct, after that the real ramp up will begin.

    Bizarre circumstances always pop up in production ramp, no matter how prepared things seem to be.
     
  3. Robert831

    Robert831 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2017
    Messages:
    43
    Location:
    Watsonville, CA
    Will we ever know the real answer?
     
  4. vigge50

    vigge50 Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    388
    Location:
    Sverige
    In the quater letter they write that they where confidence that they will built over 1500 Model 3 in this quater but we have to wait and see how close to that number they get.
     
  5. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    5,247
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    Not enough since I don't have mine.
     
    • Funny x 7
    • Like x 1
  6. Troy

    Troy Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    960
    Location:
    Elon said 100 units in August 2017 (source). My calculation shows 16 units this week.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  7. vigge50

    vigge50 Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    388
    Location:
    Sverige
    What are this calculations based on?
     
    • Like x 1
  8. electracity

    electracity Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,598
    Location:
    60606
    Probably a ramp function that when summed for the month equals 100.

    Personally I would just divide 100 by four weeks. But I don't care. When Tesla produces a thousand plus vehicles in a month they are in production. The small numbers don't matter. How Tesla wants to label August "production" doesn't matter either. What Tesla is doing today is pre-production.

    By their aspirational schedule they are trying to compress a normal six months of pre-production into ten weeks or so. I doubt Tesla plans to give out information in the next month or two as to the state of the ramp.

    There may be nothing until the next earnings call.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    5,247
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    How many more does your calculations say - until I get mine?
     
    • Funny x 1
  10. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    3,285
    VIN counting is returning with a vengeance!

    All of you out there spotting Model 3’s, we want to know the VINs!
     
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 2
    • Funny x 1
  11. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2011
    Messages:
    13,296
    Location:
    Sarasota, FL
    This past week = 0

    The ~30 cars that went out the previous Friday should be essentially one step up fro RCs but any sensible company will pause while they see how real world owners get on.
     
    • Like x 3
  12. S3XY

    S3XY Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2015
    Messages:
    653
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    • Helpful x 2
  13. electracity

    electracity Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,598
    Location:
    60606
  14. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    5,247
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    lol
     
  15. carms

    carms New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    I know my profile on Tesla.com gives me an estimated delivery, but put this together for fun to see production ramp. Of course all speculation but take it for whats it worth. Looking forward to taking delivery of my Model 3 soon.

    C+C ARMSTRONG on Twitter

    Delivery units on the top and cars per week on the bottom based off estimate.
     

    Attached Files:

  16. voip-ninja

    voip-ninja Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2012
    Messages:
    412
    Extremely unlikely.

    They have thousands of orders to fill with Tesla and SpaceX employees who have agreed to be beta testers.

    How are they supposed to start on the order backlog if they wait a few months to get and address all the feedback from the first production deliveries?
     
    • Like x 2
  17. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    604
    Location:
    Palm Beach FL
    There are 36,000 employees eligible to each order up to two for themself or direct family.
     
    • Informative x 1
  18. Troy

    Troy Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    960
    Location:
    #18 Troy, Aug 5, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2017
    Hi, @carms. I have also analyzed the S curve on Tesla's website here and the one shown during the reveal event here. The two S curves are different. Both appear to be artist impressions because neither matches the three numbers Elon mentioned here. The numbers Elon tweeted have more credibility because,

    1. The two graphs don't match,
    2. Elon's numbers are very specific,
    3. The S curves are not just a little different from Elon's numbers. They are completely different. For example, Elon said more than 1500 units in September, but the graphs are much lower.
    4. A few minutes after he mentioned those numbers, he also said 20,000 units/month production rate by the end of December here. That's about the same as 5,000 units/week which was the number they released in the 22 Feb 2017 shareholder letter here. The fact that one of the numbers he tweeted was also in the shareholder letter adds more credibility to the accuracy of the numbers. The 5,000 and 10,000 units/week numbers were re-confirmed in the 2 August 2017 shareholder letter here.
     
    • Like x 1
  19. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,312
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Going with earliest possible or waiting for AWD?
     
  20. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    5,247
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    Waiting for AWD. Its been over a year and a half. What's another year?
     

Share This Page