I'm curious what people think. Obviously ramp has not happened but that doesn't mean they couldn't have already started producing in real numbers.
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How many Model 3s were built this week?
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If anything like Model S, very few. I'd guess [without much evidence] that we'll see maybe 100 this month, then ~500 in Sept, followed by a 'production delay' in Oct, after that the real ramp up will begin.
Bizarre circumstances always pop up in production ramp, no matter how prepared things seem to be.
Bizarre circumstances always pop up in production ramp, no matter how prepared things seem to be.
Robert831
Member
In the quater letter they write that they where confidence that they will built over 1500 Model 3 in this quater but we have to wait and see how close to that number they get.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Not enough since I don't have mine.
Probably a ramp function that when summed for the month equals 100.
Personally I would just divide 100 by four weeks. But I don't care. When Tesla produces a thousand plus vehicles in a month they are in production. The small numbers don't matter. How Tesla wants to label August "production" doesn't matter either. What Tesla is doing today is pre-production.
By their aspirational schedule they are trying to compress a normal six months of pre-production into ten weeks or so. I doubt Tesla plans to give out information in the next month or two as to the state of the ramp.
There may be nothing until the next earnings call.
Garlan Garner
Banned
VIN counting is returning with a vengeance!
All of you out there spotting Model 3’s, we want to know the VINs!
All of you out there spotting Model 3’s, we want to know the VINs!
NigelM
Recovering Member
This past week = 0
The ~30 cars that went out the previous Friday should be essentially one step up fro RCs but any sensible company will pause while they see how real world owners get on.
The ~30 cars that went out the previous Friday should be essentially one step up fro RCs but any sensible company will pause while they see how real world owners get on.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I know my profile on Tesla.com gives me an estimated delivery, but put this together for fun to see production ramp. Of course all speculation but take it for whats it worth. Looking forward to taking delivery of my Model 3 soon.
C+C ARMSTRONG on Twitter
Delivery units on the top and cars per week on the bottom based off estimate.
C+C ARMSTRONG on Twitter
Delivery units on the top and cars per week on the bottom based off estimate.
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Extremely unlikely.
They have thousands of orders to fill with Tesla and SpaceX employees who have agreed to be beta testers.
How are they supposed to start on the order backlog if they wait a few months to get and address all the feedback from the first production deliveries?
Hi, @carms. I have also analyzed the S curve on Tesla's website here and the one shown during the reveal event here. The two S curves are different. Both appear to be artist impressions because neither matches the three numbers Elon mentioned here. The numbers Elon tweeted have more credibility because,
1. The two graphs don't match,
2. Elon's numbers are very specific,
3. The S curves are not just a little different from Elon's numbers. They are completely different. For example, Elon said more than 1500 units in September, but the graphs are much lower.
4. A few minutes after he mentioned those numbers, he also said 20,000 units/month production rate by the end of December here. That's about the same as 5,000 units/week which was the number they released in the 22 Feb 2017 shareholder letter here. The fact that one of the numbers he tweeted was also in the shareholder letter adds more credibility to the accuracy of the numbers. The 5,000 and 10,000 units/week numbers were re-confirmed in the 2 August 2017 shareholder letter here.
1. The two graphs don't match,
2. Elon's numbers are very specific,
3. The S curves are not just a little different from Elon's numbers. They are completely different. For example, Elon said more than 1500 units in September, but the graphs are much lower.
4. A few minutes after he mentioned those numbers, he also said 20,000 units/month production rate by the end of December here. That's about the same as 5,000 units/week which was the number they released in the 22 Feb 2017 shareholder letter here. The fact that one of the numbers he tweeted was also in the shareholder letter adds more credibility to the accuracy of the numbers. The 5,000 and 10,000 units/week numbers were re-confirmed in the 2 August 2017 shareholder letter here.
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Garlan Garner
Banned
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