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How many model 3s will take deliver in q1

Q1 model 3 delivery estimates world-wide

  • <50k

  • 50-55k

  • 55-60k

  • 60-65k

  • 65-70k

  • 70-75k

  • 75-80k

  • 80-85k

  • 85k+


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Model 3 production should be up but deliveries will be down. Bloomberg's chart shows nearly 60,000 manufactured so far in Q1 at 5688/week. BUT, shipments to Europe and China will dramatically cut into actual deliveries. I would think there will be a month between transit and customs.
 
It will depend a lot on when/if they will stop sending ships to Europe and China, doing NA deliveries instead... I hoping they won't stop, and that that's the main reason for the 0 profit prediction for Q1.
 
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It will depend a lot on when/if they will stop sending ships to Europe and China, doing NA deliveries instead... I hoping they won't stop, and that that's the main reason for the 0 profit prediction for Q1.
This makes sense. And if they continue to ship to Europe and China, they can make more high value deliveries in the entire q2. Since they have the delivery infrastructure in place, no point slowing down like they normally do.

Expectations are already low for q1 anyways.
 
I agree with 25k US deliveries, but are we sure that China/EU will be able to deliver everything to customers by end of March? I’m hearing that it’s delivery hell
I think the 45k in China & EU is on the higher side. Not just because of delivery problems, but also the avg cargo could be lower than 3k in each ship. Lets say 35k.

But, the US number is likely low as well. Esp, if you take alphahat's numbers at face value, its already at 9k * 2 = 18k. So, instead of 25k, US could be 35k.

So, in the end 65k to 70k, is probably about right. Lower than 50k, would indeed be blood bath in terms of P&L. Not that it matters long term.
 
Looking solely at North America, the number of VINs available for new vehicle production is quite significantly down from Q4 and even Q3. I am defining this as new VINs issued for the quarter, plus available unused prior issued VINs. I have assumed that 2018 VINs cannot be used for 2019 production.

upload_2019-3-12_12-54-55.png


One assumes from this a reasonable cap on Q1 production for the North American market to be about 40-45k at the time of writing. The amount of Model 3 "In Transit" at in Dec 2018 was minimal at only 1k, though they did have about 7k in what I'd term "retained inventory". That is to say, cumulative vehicles produced but not sold and not "in transit to customer". So you could if you're being really optimistic add another 10% to the US delivery total, if you think they'll clear out inventory of MR/LR from the recent playing about with prices.

Which leaves us with International deliveries. 16 ships by 2,500 average load equals 40k maximum, with deliveries lower by about a quarter. So your maximum production would be 80k in the quarter (6,800 for 12 weeks), 33% up from Q4, with a really bullish maximum number of deliveries of about 70-75k. More likely we'll be substantially below that but I'm reasonably happy to think there's a good chance of being slightly above 60k deliveries.
 
As far as I recall they have re-purposed prior-year VINs in the past (from 2017 to 2018). They just issued a change to the unused VINs.
If that's the case then we can conclude that at the very least, the exit rate of Q1 production will be very positive indeed. Since it's fairly easy to match production with demand a few weeks ahead of time, Q2 could be a bonanza. But I digress, the question was Q1...
 
New @Fact Checking curious on your reasoning for less than 50k deliveries?

By expecting 50k deliveries I'm just being cautious:
  • I'd like to see the March delivery rate in Europe stabilize, to make sure there's no "delivery hell" there with much more than the guided ~10k cars stuck somewhere on the long road between the factory and customers.
  • New Model 3 VIN registrations are so out of this world that it's hard to anchor them to historic production numbers. I'm not going to estimate Q1 production of 111k Model 3's that the "85% method" would imply - which result is in heavy conflict with what we appear to know about Fremont's capacity constrains and with the 80-90k upper limit of Q1 pack production Carsonight's comments suggest GF1 has currently. @tsunamiofhurt has gone silent about a month ago, which makes it hard to interpret the VIN numbers as well. Bloomberg is using a VIN methodology as well, and InsideEV looks a bit random.
  • It would be nice to get a snapshot of more recent Alpha Hat numbers, in particular to get an idea of the trajectory of deliveries post the $35k announcement ... Alpha Hat can estimate U.S. deliveries with about a week of delay and <1% accuracy, they apparently have no VIN registration reliance and very few methodological assumptions, but they are also rather pricey. Does anyone have access to their post-January reports or data? :D
So there's room for upsides, but not enough hard data IMO.

Q3'18 was the previous 'quarter from hell' that was difficult to model - Q1'19 might take its spot. :D
 
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Tesla Model 3: Europa Bestellungen/Europe Orders

Click the shipnames and see where they are realtime.
ASIAN KING is not yet updated but already on route to china

Thanks very much. Is there an English Version of this spreadsheet?
Also I remember there used to be a spreadsheet containing estimation of production number and ASP etc. The spreadsheet is called Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet. Has it stopped updating?