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Discussion in 'Model S' started by joefee, Aug 14, 2012.
How many Model S’s will be delivered in 2012?
I think Morgan Stanley might have been right all along. For once! Given the slow ramp-up, just about 3,000 seems feasible.
Up till Q1 Tesla had been saying 5,000 produced this year, then in the Q1 letter they changed that to "deliver" and repeated it less than 3 weeks ago in the Q2 letter. If they don't get close to 5,000 they are going to look like complete idiots and certainly there would be questions regarding the Q2 statements, so my point is that these guys are smart (right?) so they must know something we don't (right?) and the deliveries will be there somehow (right?)..... I have no idea.
How can they hit that # though? People are already getting January delivery dates.
January delivery dates? I haven't seen that posted yet. That is a disappointment. I am at P#3820, right on the 5k bubble considering the sigs.
Just 5 words to say to those that doubt Tesla's resolve: "Oh, ye of little faith" .
When the 500 vehicle target was given for the third quarter, it made it obvious that delivering 5,000 by the end of the year is unrealistic, and undesirable.
As a stockholder and as a Model S buyer, I wouldn't want production ramp-up to proceed that quickly. What I want to see is a gradual, careful ramp-up with lots of quality control in place. Quality, not quantity, is what's needed during this ramp-up period.
Early adopters can carry the sales for a few months, but the wealthier luxury car buyers must take over. The product must be perceived by the luxury car buying public as a desirable, quality product or sales will dry up.
Remember that they crucified the guy who coined that phrase....
It's not really important. More important that they get to high production levels around that time.
He appropriately said it during the calming of the storm!
For any number under 5k for deliveries, late December might be a great buying opportunity for TSLA.
They emailed 3270 already with possible January date. You should be getting an email soon.
I'm voting high, because I have confidence. And I don't want the shorts to win.
Honestly, I think we've been seeing that slow ramping since the beginning of June when they delivered the founders and built cars for the get Amped Tour. July was tweaking the process and building the rest of founders and other test vehicles. August more tweaking, guessing probably 50-100 cars possibly and delivering the first Signature Car.
IMO, September will be the key ramping month where they will need to start pressing the accelerator on the line and start pushing 20 cars a day/ 100 a week. If they can pass that goal without any process issues, then hopefully they can ramp up faster and hit full stride in November and December.
Nice bell curve so far … I just called to confirm my S1092 for October delivery and it was confirmed (However, at the time I was added to the sig list they said September was a good possibility … not any more!).
Elon described the ramp as an S-curve during the last conference call with the vertical part of that S happening in early Q4. Those of you that are using the current ramp or Q3 numbers to estimate Q4 deliveries are using completely meaningless information to draw your conclusions.
As for reservation numbers and delivery dates. First, the delivery dates I've seen said "Dec or early Jan" so they could still make this year. Second, we need to inject the Canadian Signatures in there. They should be delivered before the U.S. P's.
~40 Founders + 1000 U.S. Sigs + ~200 Canadian Sigs + ~3000 U.S. Ps = pretty close
I voted 4001-5000. I think this is perfectly achievable, though not certain.
Exactly, so all these are just guesses and I'm wondering what the point of this poll is?
Elon certainly seems to strike fear into the hearts of his employees when it comes to achieving goals and meeting (exceeding) expectations.
When I asked a Tesla employee if they really think they can still hit the 5000 car mark this year, he said "Elon will fire all of us" if we don't reach our target.
I hope they are continuing to build cars but are stockpiling them while they resolve third party vendor issues. We have only heard about a couple of Sigs being delivered to end customers, so unless they are continuing to manufacture Model S cars for their own internal use, where are the cars that are being produced today going??
One just showed up on Edmunds.com's test track, and I heard they are planning on having cars in every store for regular test drives in the near future.
The point is that the mean/mode is where you would hope and there are fewer votes at either extreme. I find the collective wisdom of TMC users very useful and the polls are more entertainment than "hard data". But being an old data hack --- "some educated guesses" with "soft data" are better than no data" --- just having fun waiting for the car to show up in October :smile: