How many non-Performance Model X will Tesla deliver in 2015?

[fengshui]

We know Tesla is committed to beginning deliveries in Q3 2015. However, in the past, they have delivered cars in an order driven by option availability. Given that they clearly prioritize the higher-profit margin Performance models whenever possible, how many non-P Model Xs do you think will be delivered in 2015, and when will they first arrive?

 

[MarkoC]

I'm hoping for at least 2,044. :smile:

 

[MikeL]

If the price premium for PX (which are ALL 'D' as well) is as big as it is for the model S, we will see a lot of non-P orders. What ratio to P versions, I don't know. But they fairly quickly have to fill both (& or 'multiple' battery and power options according to the webpage) kinds of orders even if the first priority is the high margin builds. I suspect we'll see a near 50/50 delivery, UNLESS the rollout is slow or even later than we now expect. (for 2015)

btw in my case, I said, "hey honey, you know the performance version will be A LOT more expensive?!" She said, "we've come this far, let's DO IT!" :smile:

 

[Earlian]

Last information was the goal of 800 Mx/week at the end of 15. So all depends on how quick the ramp up will go- and this even Tesla doesn't know.
All possible between 0-10000 Non-P, but it is healthy to think of the lower numbers.

 

[CmdrThor]

Last information was the goal of 800 Mx at the end of 15. So all depends on how quick the ramp up will go- and this even Tesla doesn't know.
All possible between 0-10000 Non-P, but it is healthy to think of the low numbers.

Do you mean 800 Model X per week at the end of 2015? Unless there is another major delay I would guess there will be well more than 800 total Model X by the end of the year.

 

[FlasherZ]

That's not how they did the Model S. Many production S85's were delivered immediately after the last of the Sigs. I think it will be along the general reservation sequence number, based on the mix of options.

 

[Earlian]

Do you mean 800 Model X per week at the end of 2015? Unless there is another major delay I would guess there will be well more than 800 total Model X by the end of the year.

Yes, sorry I meant 800 ModelX/ per week. I edited my post.

 

[Beryl]

I'm hoping for at least 2,044. :smile:

I guess there is little hope for 15090. :smile: At least I'm in the queue.

 

[MikeL]

I guess there is little hope for 15090. :smile: At least I'm in the queue.

yes indeed.
I think the point here is, get the P. You'll get it a little sooner. Maybe

 

[1208]

I got an email from Elon saying he wouldn't allow it to go above 2043. Something about him being superstitious and the world ending on that date.:biggrin:

 

[Nubo]

A performance order jumping the queue? I'd hope that Tesla's financial position isn't so unsound as to be materially affected by such a stunt.

 

[Aljohn]

It would suggest less a financial ploy, but more a efficiency one. Producing a single model as they did with the P85D so Tesla could complete as many P85D orders before starting to build the S85D or continuing to produce the 86 and 60 rear wheel models. Producing only cars with the larger rear motor and the P85D Second Gen seats most likely aided Tesla to deliver the larger than expected number of P85D orders. This situation created by the demand for the P85D may have aided Tesla in learning an unexpected lesson --- that producing a single model, and not adhering completely to reservation sequence is more efficient for the assemble line. Keep in mind that that "undercarriage" displayed in all the Tesla Centers is the start of every car. Building just one type in larger numbers (dual motor, and larger rear motor) adds may add efficiency -- most P85D may also have the air suspension. So if Tesla did the same for Model X -- producing either the X85 or the XP85 (D badge not needed--anticipate no 60) may be more efficient and result in all orders being delivered faster. My 2Cents worth...

 

[fengshui]

A performance order jumping the queue? I'd hope that Tesla's financial position isn't so unsound as to be materially affected by such a stunt.

It doesn't materially affect the financials, but it does show up. See the 1Q 2013 Shareholder letter:

Importantly, this expectationincludes the impact from lower ZEV credit sales, a lower average selling price due to a higher mix of 60 kWh cars,as well as limited sales of the now discontinued 40 kWh cars, which will have a range-limited 60 kWh battery pack.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...471-9319FD963626/Q1 13 Shareholder Letter.pdf

Likewise, look at the S. Performance Dual-Drive models were available immediately, but the non-performance D had to wait months. Even now, P85Ds ordered today deliver in March, but S85Ds deliver in April. I expect we'll see the same pattern with the X.

 

[Nubo]

This situation created by the demand for the P85D may have aided Tesla in learning an unexpected lesson --- that producing a single model, and not adhering completely to reservation sequence is more efficient for the assemble line.

Perhaps. I do not like it.

 

[Aljohn]

Perhaps. I do not like it.

View attachment 73109

That is always fine Nubo -- just exploring a rationale.