How Many Owners Would Buy Again, Given the latest fire information?

[Todd Burch]

Owners only: Knowing what you know about the fires, if you had to do it over again would you buy the Model S again?

 

[carrerascott]

Hard to say. I love my S, but before plunking down $100k+ for a car, you want to wait and find out if there is a design flaw, or if these are truly flukes. This will affect sales, IMHO. Q4 could fall well short if this isn't cleared up quickly.

I would say if I was just thinking of ordering, I would be on the "wait and see" fence right now.

 

[Todd Burch]

Although this poll will be biased, I suspect it will lean heavily to the yes side, which will indicate how small this road debris accident will play in the long term health of the company.

 

[tomas]

I do not understand the obsession with fire. If a vehicle crashes or gets struck by road debris at highway speed, there's a good likelihood it is totaled. So, put aside the issue of damage to the vehicle, insurance rates, etc. A highway accident gets that result.

So, the next important question: did anyone get hurt? It seems to me that whether or not the totaled car burned is tertiary.

This is the typical media circus - millimeter deep coverage gives the impression the car is just spontaneously bursting into flames all over the place. No, somebody crashed it or hit something. At high speed. And lived to tell the story.

Very happy if Tesla Motors looks for ways to protect better against debris. But, not freaking out!

PS, I actually had my 1978 Ford Fiesta spontaneously catch fire (faulty wiring) in 1980. Maybe I'm silly, but I did not call the NHTSA... just pulled over, got out quick, and called Allstate. Goofball that I am, I just figured that could happen with a box full of wires and gasoline.

 

[glhs272]

I still think people are focusing on the wrong statistic here. Even if the Model S has higher likelihood of fire over miles driven, what matters to me is the number of severe injuries and fatalities to miles driven or number of severe accidents. Everything I have seen thus far shows the Model S is the most likely to keep me safe in the event of a severe accident. That said there is no reason Tesla should not be doing everything they reasonably can to reduce the fire risk. I think that risk will improve as these cars evolve.

Edit:
Tomas got to the same point first

 

[carrerascott]

Not freaking out here either, and will happily drive mine. But if I was writing a check today, I would wait a bit and see where it falls.

My wife and son are in the car a lot, and this is a $100k+ car. If these are normal, fine -- I know cars catch fire. But <1 year old >$100k cars... I don't know. Obviously if 3 Porsche Panameras caught fire, we probably never heard of it. But this is new technology, and any "don't know" items, can be bothersome...

 

[yobigd20]

I would absolutely without hesitation buy again.

This was an ACCIDENT. All these incidents were the result of an accident. Not some spontaneous combustion event.

In any accident situation, results are unpredictable depending on the nature of the accident. But in all of these fire-relates accident it still comes down to a BAD driver running over road debris or not paying attention and crashing.

Regardless of those BAD drivers, in every single Tesla accident, fires and no fires, and regardless if whose fault the accident even was, not a single Tesla occupant has died or been significantly injured in any way.

This fire doesn't change anything. This still remains the safest car in the world. It is still innovative and many many ways and unbelievably awesome to drive.

I love my S. And I can't wait to add an X to my garage some day too.

 

[Todd Burch]

For the record, you couldn't pry my car out of my cold, dead hands!

 

[carrerascott]

For the record, you couldn't pry my car out of my cold, dead hands!

I'm not at all thinking of selling. Love the car and will drive it till it catches fire. And as owners we know how great the car is. But putting myself in the place of a potential owner, who has never (or barely) driven, and is about to write a check for $100k+ -- I would at least hesitate and see what's what. Whether it's a day or a week or a month.

 

[Doug_G]

I would not hesitate for a second. All three incidents were due to collisions (debris or otherwise). No one was hurt. ICE cars catch fire all the time - the only reason this is even slightly newsworthy is that it's an electric car.

 

[Gizmotoy]

I think I'd feel safer if the battery was a little better protected. Aluminum as an armor plate is starting to look somewhat ineffective. Still, the advantages of that decision are obvious.

The only concern I have is looking at the two tow hitch incidents: one had minor-looking damage that require the replacement of the entire battery at a cost of $50k. The other started a fire.

Let's look at the damage case. Were that car 2-3 years old, it likely would have been totaled (repair ~>75% current market value). So I wouldn't say the fires concern me in the least. Battery damage, though, is a little concerning.

 

[AMPd]

I know I don't belong here seeing as how I don't own a model s, but I will still be purchasing the model s when I have enough cash saved up.
I have absolutely no hesitation about writing TM a check for 115+k for the best vehicle in the world!

 

[bareyb]

I would definitely buy the car again, but I wouldn't buy the stock at $178.00 again…

 

[glhs272]

I think I'd feel safer if the battery was a little better protected. Aluminum as an armor plate is starting to look somewhat ineffective. Still, the advantages of that decision are obvious.

The only concern I have is looking at the two tow hitch incidents: one had minor-looking damage that require the replacement of the entire battery at a cost of $50k. The other started a fire.

Let's look at the damage case. Were that car 2-3 years old, it likely would have been totaled (repair ~>75% current market value). So I wouldn't say the fires concern me in the least. Battery damage, though, is a little concerning.

I could be wrong but I suspect part of the reason for the $50K cost of the battery is because Tesla is battery supply limited. Meaning one battery sold as a spare part is one less car they can sell for the year. They are recovering the profit they would otherwise make on selling an entire car in selling the battery by itself. Most of the replacement batteries being sold are being charged to insurance companies (so they feel justified in the high price?) or warranty replacements. So the 50K cost doesn't really reflect the true cost of the battery. Therefore in 3 years when battery supplies are no longer a production constraint, replacement batteries will become much cheaper......hopefully. That is when many cars will be coming off warranty and lower cost solutions will be more important.

 

[birdsaresmarter]

This is part of being an early adopter of new technology and business model. I look at outcome. So far there have been a number of serious accidents and, as far as I know, people are generally walking away without serious injury. So far only thing really "injured" is the car. If there is anything to be learned and improved upon from this, I have confidence that TM will do it. Is it a surprise that "battery technology" can stand improvement? I don't think so. Has TM done a pretty fine job so far? I think so.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

If there is anything to be learned and improved upon from this, I have confidence that TM will do it. Is it a surprise that "battery technology" can stand improvement? I don't think so. Has TM done a pretty fine job so far? I think so.

Agree 100%. You got the main point. Hope we will have soon some battery improvements.

 

[neroden]

The fires don't even make me blink. All three fires were due to severe collisions of the sort which regularly kill people in ICE cars.

(There are other things which would make me question whether to buy a Tesla again, but they're all about the company, not about the car.)

 

[Gizmotoy]

I could be wrong but I suspect part of the reason for the $50K cost of the battery is because Tesla is battery supply limited. Meaning one battery sold as a spare part is one less car they can sell for the year. They are recovering the profit they would otherwise make on selling an entire car in selling the battery by itself. Most of the replacement batteries being sold are being charged to insurance companies (so they feel justified in the high price?) or warranty replacements. So the 50K cost doesn't really reflect the true cost of the battery. Therefore in 3 years when battery supplies are no longer a production constraint, replacement batteries will become much cheaper......hopefully. That is when many cars will be coming off warranty and lower cost solutions will be more important.

Definitely agree. I think we can be certain battery cost will decline. I'm just crossing my fingers it declines at least at roughly the rate of depreciation, or battery damage is going to be totaling a lot of cars, jacking up insurance rates. Success of the follow-up cars will also be a factor in demand.

 

[PeterK]

I would not hesitate for a second. All three incidents were due to collisions (debris or otherwise). No one was hurt. ICE cars catch fire all the time - the only reason this is even slightly newsworthy is that it's an electric car.

I think it goes beyond just being electric - it's a chance to take Tesla down off its high pedestal of glowing reviews, NHTSA rating, and rapidly appreciated stock price, like Broder tried to do. The daggers are more out for Tesla than Leaf or Volt.

- - - Updated - - -

And by the way, I would buy mine again in a heartbeat, though probably with heated rear seats and parking sensors...

 

[detlefo]

I won't belabor restating all that should be obvious that these were accidents, catastrophic to the car but the drivers all walked away. The one addition I would make is that in each case the car's telemetry told Tesla that it had been in an accident and Tesla proactively contacted the owner to ask if they were OK. How often has this happened with any other main stream car? I'm sure that Tesla will evaluate the damage and will learn from these incidents. I would not hesitate to recommend the car to anyone. It is probably the safest car on the road today.