How many reservations will Elon report Wednesday?

[Cattledog]

Elon said he'd update the number of reservations on Wednesday. How many reservations do we think that will be? At last report, by the end of Saturday night, we had hit 276,000 orders. That was the first 3 days, Thursday-Saturday (not sure if it includes 10,000+ from Tesla/SpaceX employees). So what will Sunday-Wednesday bring?

 

[eloder]

I think >500k is realistic, while orders are steadying up I also believe the Elon tweets plus fast-increasing awareness on social media will pull in more orders at a slow but steady pace.

 

[Cattledog]

I guessed 400k-450k, but didn't think much about viral social media spin. It was 180,000 in the first 24 hours, 96,000 in the next 48 hours, I sort of thought it would sort of hold steady as office gossip took over Monday morning. Hope you're right!

 

[Skotty]

I'll go with 313,000.

 

[Johan]

I think the tempo will have calmed down now, and that we might see a second wave of reservations later this year. So I'll go with 350k.

 

[dturkes]

Until part two of the unveil still awhile out, I think reservations will hover around the 450,000 mark. Given that the federal tax credit has already been used up, it's going to be more of a "what other tech and options are they going to put into it". We've all been surprised before though.

 

[elel]

Based roughly on elons tweets

 

[Johan]

View attachment 170934
Based roughly on elons tweets

Have a look at this interactive chart by @Nomad:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...FaU/pubchart?oid=836356650&format=interactive

 

[elel]

Have a look at this interactive chart by @Nomad:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...FaU/pubchart?oid=836356650&format=interactive

Thanks, thats much more informative!

 

[Cattledog]

Yes, I'd love to see two pieces of data for fun - the first 5 minutes after reservations opened online (7:30 Pacific) and the first 5 minutes after the cars were shown during the unveil (roughly 8:45 Pacific).

 

[ftrv8]

I haven't reserved one yet, will do so right after my home refi goes through. So +1 to whatever the number is gonna be.

 

[Hyronimous]

Have a look at this interactive chart by @Nomad:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...FaU/pubchart?oid=836356650&format=interactive

Good graph, appreciated.

I don't see a reason why it should get higher between sunday and now so my guess is in the low 300.000

 

[pinski]

I've been bearish this entire time, since I didn't expect the reservations to even go this high! I'll continue to be that way and estimate an additional 50,000 since the last report of 276,000, bringing the total to 326,000.

 

[Smokkelaar]

After the weekend many People talks about this car on work. and New people gets intresting in this car.
So i think it will Go up to around 350k.
At my work 2 extra People has reserves a car this week after talking to me.

 

[Nosken]

It would be cool if he announces that it was Pi-π 3.14159 X 100,000. 10 to the 5th power

 

[Haxster]

Don't know not'n 'bout Wednesday's numbers.

But... IF the reservation rate of 276,000 for the first 62 hours were to continue (and Elon became King of the World), by the end of 2018, there would be enough reservations for one out of four licensed drivers in the US, with 10 million more in the rest of the world.

That's 60 million reservations!

My calculations:
276k/62 hours ~ 100k/day
~200m licensed drivers in the US
~600 days until the end of 2018 at 100k per day = 60m
25% of 200m licensed US drivers = 50m
60m - 50m = 10m non-US reservations

Fat chance...

 

[Boourns]

I think it will be around 320,000. I think most people willing to dive head first into the world of EVs have plunked down their money already. I anticipate a smaller surge after Part 2 of the reveal, but I think the real inroads will be made once the first Model 3s are delivered. That's when people who wouldn't have considered an EV prior ("I don't want to be stuck on the side of the road") will see how truly livable owning a Model 3 will be.

 

[Breezy]

I'm a "reservation bear" (not a Tesla bear; I hope people understand the difference). Less than 300,000, and it won't ever go much higher. Whenever Elon/Tesla stops giving updates, we'll know reservations have peaked.

 

[Darryl]

Elon is now projecting 500k reservations by the time production starts.

 

[ummgood]

I have been seeing coworkers "figure out" that the Model 3 is awesome as of late. I know of 3 more people in my office that put down reservations yesterday.

I would venture to say that as press builds the reservations will still be somewhat steady. I also think that a lot of these last minute reservations will cancel if Tesla is too late on hitting targets because who wants to wait until 2020 for a car?