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How many reservations will Elon report Wednesday?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Cattledog, Apr 5, 2016.

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How many reservations will Elon report Wednesday?

Poll closed Apr 7, 2016.
  1. <300,000

    15 vote(s)
    4.8%
  2. 300,000-350,000

    176 vote(s)
    56.1%
  3. 350,000-400,000

    85 vote(s)
    27.1%
  4. 400,000-450,000

    22 vote(s)
    7.0%
  5. 450,000-500,000

    6 vote(s)
    1.9%
  6. >500,000

    10 vote(s)
    3.2%
  1. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Elon said he'd update the number of reservations on Wednesday. How many reservations do we think that will be? At last report, by the end of Saturday night, we had hit 276,000 orders. That was the first 3 days, Thursday-Saturday (not sure if it includes 10,000+ from Tesla/SpaceX employees). So what will Sunday-Wednesday bring?
     
    • Like x 1
  2. eloder

    eloder Member

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    I think >500k is realistic, while orders are steadying up I also believe the Elon tweets plus fast-increasing awareness on social media will pull in more orders at a slow but steady pace.
     
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  3. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    I guessed 400k-450k, but didn't think much about viral social media spin. It was 180,000 in the first 24 hours, 96,000 in the next 48 hours, I sort of thought it would sort of hold steady as office gossip took over Monday morning. Hope you're right!
     
    • Love x 1
  4. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    I'll go with 313,000.
     
  5. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    I think the tempo will have calmed down now, and that we might see a second wave of reservations later this year. So I'll go with 350k.
     
  6. dturkes

    dturkes New Member

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    Until part two of the unveil still awhile out, I think reservations will hover around the 450,000 mark. Given that the federal tax credit has already been used up, it's going to be more of a "what other tech and options are they going to put into it". We've all been surprised before though.
     
  7. elel

    elel New Member

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    upload_2016-4-6_9-10-31.png
    Based roughly on elons tweets
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  8. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    • Like x 1
  9. elel

    elel New Member

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  10. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Yes, I'd love to see two pieces of data for fun - the first 5 minutes after reservations opened online (7:30 Pacific) and the first 5 minutes after the cars were shown during the unveil (roughly 8:45 Pacific).
     
  11. ftrv8

    ftrv8 New Member

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    I haven't reserved one yet, will do so right after my home refi goes through. So +1 to whatever the number is gonna be. :)
     
  12. Hyronimous

    Hyronimous Member

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  13. pinski

    pinski Going Plaid

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    I've been bearish this entire time, since I didn't expect the reservations to even go this high! I'll continue to be that way and estimate an additional 50,000 since the last report of 276,000, bringing the total to 326,000.
     
  14. Smokkelaar

    Smokkelaar Member

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    After the weekend many People talks about this car on work. and New people gets intresting in this car.
    So i think it will Go up to around 350k.
    At my work 2 extra People has reserves a car this week after talking to me.
     
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  15. Nosken

    Nosken Member

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    It would be cool if he announces that it was Pi-π 3.14159 X 100,000. 10 to the 5th power
     
  16. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    Don't know not'n 'bout Wednesday's numbers.

    But... IF the reservation rate of 276,000 for the first 62 hours were to continue (and Elon became King of the World), by the end of 2018, there would be enough reservations for one out of four licensed drivers in the US, with 10 million more in the rest of the world.

    That's 60 million reservations!

    My calculations:
    276k/62 hours ~ 100k/day
    ~200m licensed drivers in the US
    ~600 days until the end of 2018 at 100k per day = 60m
    25% of 200m licensed US drivers = 50m
    60m - 50m = 10m non-US reservations

    Fat chance...
     
  17. Boourns

    Boourns Member

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    I think it will be around 320,000. I think most people willing to dive head first into the world of EVs have plunked down their money already. I anticipate a smaller surge after Part 2 of the reveal, but I think the real inroads will be made once the first Model 3s are delivered. That's when people who wouldn't have considered an EV prior ("I don't want to be stuck on the side of the road") will see how truly livable owning a Model 3 will be.
     
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  18. Breezy

    Breezy Member

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    I'm a "reservation bear" (not a Tesla bear; I hope people understand the difference). Less than 300,000, and it won't ever go much higher. Whenever Elon/Tesla stops giving updates, we'll know reservations have peaked. :)
     
  19. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

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    Elon is now projecting 500k reservations by the time production starts.
     
  20. ummgood

    ummgood Member

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    I have been seeing coworkers "figure out" that the Model 3 is awesome as of late. I know of 3 more people in my office that put down reservations yesterday.

    I would venture to say that as press builds the reservations will still be somewhat steady. I also think that a lot of these last minute reservations will cancel if Tesla is too late on hitting targets because who wants to wait until 2020 for a car?
     
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