How many Roadsters will be produced?

[qwk]

The battery replacement with the latest and greatest won't be a factor, as anyone with some electrical knowledge could disassemble and reassemble the ESS with any 18650 cells.

Then a simple firmware update with the specs of the new batteries and you are set.

The reason you don't see this being done yet is that most roadsters are still under warranty.

I'm sure Tesla has experimented with different type cells in the roadster, they just don't release that info.

 

[Doug_G]

It will be a collector's item because it's a pioneering vehicle. It doesn't have to beat the performance of new 2020 vehicles.

 

[mattjs33]

At issue here is that Tesla is at the mercy of Lotus. The future plans for Lotus do not include the current generation Elise. No matter how many more Roadster gliders Tesla wants to buy, Lotus will not keep making them because they don't have the capacity to produce them. Lotus' owners are betting the future of the company on the new lineup they have been showing, and there is no room in the plan to keep making Roadster gliders. So once they have fulfilled the current order, that's it, no more Roadsters.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss that there won't be another carbon fiber bodied sportscar at this price point again. Most of the big dollar companies are pushing advances in the material, both in application and cost savings. Look at what Lamborghini has been up to. The manufacturers are coming to realize, thanks to the upcoming CAFE regs, that their cars have gotten way too heavy and they can raise their MPG numbers by helping the engines lug less car around. See also what Audi and Jaguar are doing with aluminum. The point being that lightness is becoming a selling point, and you will see more of it and it will get cheaper. So down the road I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another car of the Elise/Roadster character.

 

[Norbert]

Whatever the real reason for stopping at 2,500 (demand is just not there, can't get more gliders from Lotus, want to focus on Model S, etc.), they chose not to convey it in their statement.

Neither did you. They always wanted to stop using gliders once they start building their own cars.

 

[scott451]

The battery replacement with the latest and greatest won't be a factor, as anyone with some electrical knowledge could disassemble and reassemble the ESS with any 18650 cells.

From the patent images, the individual cells are glued and wire bonded into a sheet with some serious glue. Replacing a single cell is not an option, but a single cell could be electrically removed from the sheet by cutting it's bond wire.

The smallest replaceable part is the sheet (11 to a pack), not the cell. That being said, there could be an aftermarket sheet developed...

 

[dsm363]

Tesla would be smart to start offering Roadster owners an upgrade to the newer chemistry cells they're working on with Panasonic. I'm sure more than a few Roadster owners would be willing to spend some good money on a 400 mile pack (for example) in a few years. With a warranty behind it, it would make it tough for someone else to come in and offer that service.

 

[Norbert]

From Quarterly Report 10.Aug 2010:

We currently intend to manufacture gliders with Lotus for our current generation Tesla Roadster until December 2011.

Since Aug 2010, Tesla has apparently decided extend production until January 2012. This is the corresponding paragraph from the 2010 Annual report, 3-Mar-2011. (I'll highlight different parts to emphasize my comment above.) :

We expect sales of the Tesla Roadster to grow over 2010, but expect some seasonality during the winter months. We have a supply agreement with Lotus to purchase a minimum of 2,400 Tesla Roadster vehicles or gliders. Through December 31, 2010, we have delivered over 1,500 vehicles. We currently intend to manufacture the majority of our gliders with Lotus for our current generation Tesla Roadster until January 2012, and we intend to use these gliders in the manufacturing of the Tesla Roadster to both fulfill orders placed in 2011 as well as new orders placed in 2012 until our supply of gliders is exhausted. Accordingly, we intend to offer a limited number of Tesla Roadsters for sale in 2012. To the extent we wish to sell additional Tesla Roadsters with the Lotus gliders beyond the number of vehicles we have contracted for, we will need to negotiate a new or amended supply agreement with Lotus but may be unable to do so on terms and conditions favorable to us, if at all. We do not currently plan to begin selling our next generation Tesla Roadster until at least one year after the launch of the Model S and we intend to perform such manufacturing entirely in our own facilities. Continued difficult economic conditions, competition from third parties and the planned availability of the Model S in 2012 could result in depressed sales of the Tesla Roadster in 2011. We expect to continue to experience seasonality for sales of the Tesla Roadster. We also anticipate that we will place greater sales emphasis on the generation of Model S reservations during the second half of 2011 as we work towards the launch of our planned Model S in mid-2012.

Although there isn't any direct cause-and-effect relationship established, it is expressed that:

- the production stop of the Roadster is determined by a specific point in time, not by a specific quantity. The quantity is adjusted for the date. The Feb 2011 newsletter also says: "The order increase allows Tesla to respond to market demand in 2011 and 2012 while maintaining exclusivity."

- it is related to the launch of the Model S

- future Roadster generations will be manufactured "entirely in our own facilities"

Tesla wouldn't consider "future generations" if there had been any conclusion that the Roadster (as a more general concept) isn't sellable enough.

 

[bolosky]

From the patent images, the individual cells are glued and wire bonded into a sheet with some serious glue. Replacing a single cell is not an option, but a single cell could be electrically removed from the sheet by cutting it's bond wire.

The smallest replaceable part is the sheet (11 to a pack), not the cell. That being said, there could be an aftermarket sheet developed...

This makes sense to me: making an ESS is not just sticking new cells into an old one. That is, pretty much only Tesla can do it. So, you have to wonder how much effort they'll put into building ESS's for Roadsters down the line. I would hate to have it be 2016 and have an otherwise good car with a useless battery and no way to replace it. And in 2023 when I'm ready for a third battery, how many Roadsters will still be around and looking to buy batteries? A thousand or less, I'd bet. You really have to wonder whether Tesla will bother with us (if they even still exist as an independent company).

Oh, well, it was a risk that I understood when I bought the car, and if I can't replace the battery even once it will have been a blast and a piece of history.

 

[Norbert]

I agree with Scott that regardless of early sales ambitions, the limitation at this point is likely Lotus.

So with a cap of 2500, how many cars does that leave to be produced? Were the VPs and Fouders' Series included in that 2500?

A Jan 10th, 2011 press release announces 1500 "delivered" worldwide.

(So it's not like the Feb 2011 newsletter was the first time we heard the number is less than what was hoped for in 2008.)

 

[DaveD]

The smallest replaceable part is the sheet (11 to a pack), not the cell.

Are you sure about that? I had thought that the 69-cell so-called "blocks" are replaceable (maybe needs to be done at TM factory, but still a replacement). There are 9 blocks in electrical series in each sheet.

 

[qwk]

From the patent images, the individual cells are glued and wire bonded into a sheet with some serious glue. Replacing a single cell is not an option, but a single cell could be electrically removed from the sheet by cutting it's bond wire.

The smallest replaceable part is the sheet (11 to a pack), not the cell. That being said, there could be an aftermarket sheet developed...

Yes, but in case of a only option scenario, although labor intensive, I would imagine every individual cell could be extracted and glued/soldered back in.

 

[AndrewBissell]

@bolosky: I asked the UK Tesla Sales Manager about this. He said there is a legal obligation to provide spare parts for a minimum of 10 years after the last vehicle sale. So we should be good for at least one and probably two battery changes before Tesla *may* decide not to support us with spare batteries.

 

[benji4]

@bolosky: I asked the UK Tesla Sales Manager about this. He said there is a legal obligation to provide spare parts for a minimum of 10 years after the last vehicle sale. So we should be good for at least one and probably two battery changes before Tesla *may* decide not to support us with spare batteries.

I was told the same thing by the store rep in Tokyo. Does the US also have this rule?

 

[vfx]

...
3) How likely is it that someone produces an all carbon fiber body sportscar in this price range again?....

There are many companies worldwide trying to make this feasible.

 

[vfx]

@bolosky: I asked the UK Tesla Sales Manager about this. He said there is a legal obligation to provide spare parts for a minimum of 10 years after the last vehicle sale. So we should be good for at least one and probably two battery changes before Tesla *may* decide not to support us with spare batteries.

Last I heard the US parts inventory requirement is 7 years.


I wonder is there will be a shelf full of chassis as well. (the guy in Texas who bought the entire supply of Deloren parts can build you an entire car with NOS)

 

[vfx]

From the patent images, the individual cells are glued and wire bonded into a sheet with some serious glue. Replacing a single cell is not an option, but a single cell could be electrically removed from the sheet by cutting it's bond wire.

The smallest replaceable part is the sheet (11 to a pack), not the cell. That being said, there could be an aftermarket sheet developed...

I had three sheets replace once. They had to be removed and shipped to Menlo Park. Apparently there was (at the time) only one machine in the world the would measure the old sheet and then "balance" the new ones to match exactly.

I have heard similar stories to this one too. That only the factory has the custom built diagnostic gear in the world to check some of Tesla's priority devices. This may be problematic when the car becomes out of Tesla's control. Would not be unprecedented for a company to just chuck all this kind of gear as they move forward. This could happen very very quickly in the world of computers (or computerized cars)

As for future value...

When it's a collector's item I would ask about the collector purists? They want a 100 percent original car. Maybe it won't make a difference when 100 percent of the cars would be "non-stock". A paperweight has less value. Jay Leno's Baker and other vintage electrics have refurbished batteries.

 

[doug]

Jay Leno's Baker and other vintage electrics have refurbished batteries.

True, he runs the Baker on newer batteries, but I think he still has the originals. Will Roadster collectors hold on to their spent Li:ion packs?

 

[vfx]

True, he runs the Baker on newer batteries, but I think he still has the originals. Will Roadster collectors hold on to their spent Li:ion packs?

I remember he said it runs on the original batteries. In one video they show the batteries though and they look like Trojans. I'm sure some component is original for him to make the claim though.

 

[doug]

Yeah, you just have to put fresh chemicals in those old batteries.

 

[Slackjaw]

The "No More Roadsters" Countdown

There's an unofficial post on the official TM forum saying that the "production" of Roadsters in the US ends in June. I thought this might be a bit premature as we've all read about how TM are stockpiling gliders.

But, I heard from someone who heard from someone else that really and truly there are only going to be less than 30 more Roadsters sold in the US. This was a bit of a surprise to me as we haven't even received ours yet. We're getting #1329 which is the highest VIN I've seen discussed here. Maybe they'll stop at #1400?

I'm wondering if anyone else has any more accurate gossip on this countdown. This may or may not be something TM will be issuing a press release on.

I think this is a slightly different topic from the "Production/Delivery Status" thread as it has a huge significance to anyone who is browsing this forum trying to decide.