Yup. I checked with my service tech, and according to him, the degradation point that triggers warranty replacement is based off the SR+ capacity, not the SR. That means 154 is the magic number that would trigger a replacement.
In my case, if degradation is linear, I can expect a new battery an about a year. If it's linear.
There is some credible speculation asserting Tesla has fiddled with the capacity available, causing a loss of accessible range from 4% to 6%. If this is so, I only have between 4% to 6% degradation, which is still within normal parameters. Steeper than normal, but not really concerning.
If it is not true and I really do have 10% degradation after 6 months, I am in for a rocky year before they will do anything about it.