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How many years before there is a true Model S compeditor?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Discoducky, Jan 22, 2014.

?

In what year with there be a true Model S compeditor?

Poll closed Feb 5, 2014.
  1. 2015

    6.5%
  2. 2016

    4.7%
  3. 2017

    17.8%
  4. 2018

    32.7%
  5. 2019

    10.3%
  6. 2020

    13.1%
  7. 2021

    2.8%
  8. 2022

    4.7%
  9. 2025

    1.9%
  10. Longer or never

    5.6%
  1. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    I realize this is kinda heavy handed but we discuss all the aspects of the car, superchargers, company and competitors and it makes me wonder what folks on the forum think in terms of 'when'.

    So, if this sentence is true than you have your year: Wow, this new 20xx _______________ (insert car company) looks to be a better car than the 20xx Tesla Model S.

    Here's the criteria that the competitors car must meet (my definition):

    0. It must be able to make long distance travel as easy. In that it must support a charge time as quick and supported by a infrastructure across the USA
    1. It must out accelerate and have a higher top speed
    2. It must be as smooth off the line. It might have a transmission, but it must be as smooth
    3. It must be aesthetically pleasing to a large percentage of buyers, inside and out, or in the same ballpark. Subjective I know, but looks go a long way
    4. It must have near the cargo space
    5. It must have a lower center of gravity than all other ICE sedans
    6. It must have at least the range of the lowest offering from Tesla in that model year
    7. It must have over the air updates to the software

    While there are other things that I love about the car that are not on the list, I think this is the top.
     
  2. HHHH

    HHHH Member

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    It seems like quite the uphill battle, I voted 2015, but based on the criteria that it must be able to travel across the country, it will be difficult. The supercharger network is a hard nut to duplicate.
     
  3. domenick

    domenick Nerd

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    To be a competitor in this respect, a new vehicle needs compatibility with the SuperCharger network, so the only real difficulty is to get an automaker to buy into it.

    p.s. I voted 2020 because it seems automakers won't understand that they need to take this market segment seriously until after the Model E sells a 100,000 vehicles in its first couple years.
     
  4. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    I didn't vote....but I think a fine candidate for taking this prize is a certain vehicle called....

    Tesla Model X.


    ;)
     
  5. HHHH

    HHHH Member

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    Touchè
     
  6. SwedishAdvocate

    SwedishAdvocate Active Member

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    #6 SwedishAdvocate, Jan 22, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2014
    Some thoughts:

    [1]. I don’t get this obsession with acceleration and top speed. Almost literally all cars in the US seem ridiculously over-motorized. I’ve driven an ’11 VW Passat Station Wagon with an 1,4L turbo and supercharged methane/petrol engine that puts out 150 hp and does 0-100 km/h in 9,9 something seconds with the manual tranny (not available in the US, and the European Passat is not size XL as the US version…). There is absolutely no problem getting around in that car by just using half the throttle. And overtaking is also absolutely zero problems. Another example is the entry-level Audi A4 Avant (Audi-peak for station wagon) diesel in Sweden, The entry level diesel, the 2.0 TDI, has 150 hp, and does 0-100 km/h in 9,5 seconds with the manual tranny.

    I don’t know what the absolute minimum for an entry level car is in the US, but in Sweden at least, it is absolutely not 4.3 seconds for the 0-60 mph time (!)

    And who cares about top speed. As long as it will ‘safely’ allow you to loose your drivers license for speeding above the highest legal speed-limit, then who needs to go faster than that?


    [4]. Why near the cargo space? Isn’t the only reason the S is as big as it is;

    [a] to ‘safely’ enable Tesla to charge the current sticker price and secure it’s current US market share,

    and

    to enable Elon to be able to drive around with all his five kids + one significant other in a Tesla until they can get the X on the roads?

    If a competitor instead makes their entry the size of an Audi A4 (or an A5 Sportback) it will be much lighter and handle even better.
     
  7. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    @SweedishAdvocate, I think 5.9s and you thought 4.3. Also, if it is not as big, with less cargo and occupant space, this will most likely be a detractor to prospective buyers and might not be in the same class (full size premium sedan)
     
  8. Bitech

    Bitech Member

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    1 year.

    2015: Tesla Model X and Model E

    Also there's no option for 2023 or 2024. What if a competitive non-Tesla EV is released in either of those years???
     
  9. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    #9 dsm363, Jan 22, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2014
    The big limiting factor is a quick charger network. This could be 10+ years in the making. Unless Nissan funds it or CCS catches on and is supported by future mass market electric cars that require it for long distance travel it might be awhile. 2020+ easily but who really knows.
     
  10. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    My thinking as well as I believe that the major car companies will one day license the superchargers, when TM allows them to. The only reason I believe this is that Elon wants other car companies to make competing cars as this accelerates sustainable transportation and that will not happen without the cross-country supercharger-like charging speeds.

    In 2012 there will most likely be around ~1 to 2 million Tesla's accessing the supercharging network. TM will have a good idea what the network can support and thus should be confident in licensing the ability to use it to other car manufacturers.
     
  11. CalDreamin

    CalDreamin Member

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    If you think a US Passat is XL size I'm curious what you think of the size of a Model S. A Model S is 4.5" longer and 5.1" wider than a US Passat.

    My daily driver before getting a Model S85 was a VW 2.0 TDI with a manual tranny. I thought it's acceleration was OK. A few months after getting a Model S, I drove my VW TDI on the freeway for the first time. I was shocked how sluggish it was when changing lanes. It was like the accelerator pedal was dead. I had become accustomed to my Model S slightshot during lane changing. The Model S can safely do a lane change maneuver that cannot be safely attempted in most other cars. Someone on TMC coined the phrase "Identify and occupy" for Model S lane changing ability. And I have an S85, I don't have the even quicker P85.

    I'm guessing the average car in the US does an 8 second 0-60 mph. Very few cars in the US can do a 0-60 in 4.3 seconds or less.

    Apparently Germans care. Not Americans.

    A premium BEV the size of an Audi A4 cannot be priced like a Model S, or it won't sell in Model S numbers. The battery technology wasn't there when the Model S was designed a few years ago. Model E will use newer battery technology to enable a 200-mile Tesla that's a Audi A4 competitor, at an A4 price.
     
  12. DuncanWatson

    DuncanWatson Member

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    I voted 2020. I hope sooner, but I don't see GM, Ford or Nissan making a real competitor anytime soon. I think 6 years is being generous actually and that is depressing.
     
  13. SwedishAdvocate

    SwedishAdvocate Active Member

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    Ok. But a 0-60 somewhere between 8 and 7 seconds for an entry model still sounds plenty quick to me.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Good point. I guess I forgot about the Germans…
     
  14. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    I agree, but it will most likely influence the consumers choice. Any one of the toggles will change the opinion of the consumer. And yes, Germans may like a faster car better than a car with more cargo (just a made up example)

    The more I think about this the more it appears that TM has an amazing lead....and yes a bit depressing as it is most likely due to the heavy oil dependency on ICE manufacturers.
     
  15. SwedishAdvocate

    SwedishAdvocate Active Member

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    #15 SwedishAdvocate, Jan 22, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2014
    It is what it is. I’m aware that the S had to be comparable size-wise to an A8/A7/Panamera/7-series in order for Tesla to ‘get away’ with their current pricing. And I might very well be naive in thinking that it would be possible to charge a ‘tree-hugger premium’ for an A4-sized EV. Is a full spec S5 Sportback ~65K$? Then perhaps it would be possible to charge 70K$ for a comparably sized EV with a better 0-60 sprint…
     
  16. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    Just like anything there is a big difference between need vs. want. Very few people 'need' a car with 0-60 faster than 8 seconds even (arbitrary choice of course) but people want something quicker especially if they are picking between two similar cars. If you could choose between two sedans where everything else is fairly even but one is 0-60 in 4 seconds and the other is 6 why not?
     
  17. ZBB

    ZBB Emperor

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    Just for FYI -- the A5/S5 Sportback isn't sold in the US. Only the coupe and convertible here. It's too bad for Audi as I may have gotten one instead of the Tesla...
     
  18. SwedishAdvocate

    SwedishAdvocate Active Member

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    #18 SwedishAdvocate, Jan 22, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2014
    It’s my understanding that Tesla Motors would gladly give supercharger access to any car manufacturer tomorrow if they could. There would of course be a negotiation about the other manufacturers contribution when it comes to possibly expanding the network to accommodate the cars that ‘they would bring to the table’. And if an expansion would not yet be needed, then I’m guessing that they would instead have to pick up some of the cost of the existing network and it’s maintenance.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Exchange S5 Sportback with S4 then...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Sure. But I don’t think it should necessarily be a criterion that has to be checked in order to count as a viable competitor to a Model S. If a competitor can bring a ~8-7 second 0-60 offering to market for a lower price point, and sized like an imaginary A6 hatchback/Sportback, then would that be a hopeless endeavor business wise on the US market?
     
  19. ABVA

    ABVA Member

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    IMHO: NEVER, because every other ICE/Hybrid/EV will be playing Catchup for a long time to come.
     
  20. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    I voted Longer or Never. I am 100% certain on this.

    1) I think it's pretty well known that other manufacturers shunned electric cars until Tesla. A good number probably still think Electric cars are a fad/joke and not "for-real". So many of them have not seriously even started to invest in Electric cars. Every single other EV on the road today, and even single EV that I know of planned in the future, STILL doesn't compare to what Tesla has today. Almost all of them are silly compliance cars because they simply don't take it seriously enough to make a real car. They don't have the range. They don't ahve the power. They don't have any of the innovative things that are in the MS and MX. Only NOW some of them are scrambling to compete. (THIS should be a HUGE wake up call: In 2013, Tesla Model S Outsold Mercedes-Benz S-Class, BMW 7 Series, Audi A8, Lexus LS and Porsche Panamera) SOME of them , after all of Tesla's success over the last year, JUST realized that this is the real deal, and if they don't come up with something soon, they risk falling the way of blackberry as Apple took over the mobile market so will Tesla take over the automotive industry. Tesla already has a good 10 year head start. Everyone else better get "smart" real fast.

    2) First, watch this video. Co-Founder Of Tesla About Starting Tesla (VIDEO) | CleanTechnica In it, Marc Tarpenning (former Tesla co-founder) talks about how after he left Tesla and was consulted by other manufacturers he realized that everyone else was not 4-5 years behind in R&D as we had all generally thought, but in fact it's actually MUCH WORSE. Basically over the years they all got rid of their electric engineers. So none of them have anyone on staff with any real expertise in electrical battery technology, let alone trying to develop anything. They are at least 8-10 years behind.

    3) Patents. Tesla's has a HUGE head start here. They already have at least 140 patents awarded, with over 240 more pending. Once everyone else begins to start meddling with EV technology for real, they are going to soon realize that a lot of things that are necessary to make it viable are already patented by Tesla. or they are going to have to do something different. I'd like to see that. By the time they figure that out, Tesla's still going to be another 2 or 3 generations of tech ahead of them.

    4) 5 star crash safety. It seems everyone else hasn't been able to get this right for 30+ years. What makes you think their new EV is suddenly going to get them 5 star crash safety results now? (let alone them trying to figure out how to make the battery technology safe, which once again Tesla already has a unique methodology patented).

    5) other car manufacturers are already have established franchises. this means people still need to deal with the $hit*y dealership model. And that's a lose/lose situation already. No way around that for them...can't use Tesla's excuse (no franchises=no violation of law). plus the loaner program and maintenance-free car. that's just more incentive to buy a Tesla vs anything else.

    6) I'd really like to see someone else develop a gear box to rival the one in the MS. No shifting. Trying to make a multi-gear gearbox for an electric car is not as simple as one may think. Again, watch marc's video linked above. And for that matter, the entire powertrain really. they are way ahead of everyone else here. and now we're adding AWD and probably some cool torque vectoring stuff to it next year.

    7) Hell, even Mercedes' recently announced 2025 EV still won't have the range nor power of the 2012 P85. So in 11 years they will release an EV that is 1/3rd the power and 1/3rd the torque and it's 1.1 seconds slower than last year's P85 (which will be 13years old in 2025). Wow. That's something to look forward to.....NOT!! This seems to confirm Marc's conclusion, that the competition is at least 10-13 years BEHIND Tesla. Actually since Tesla start in the mid 2000s, more like 20 years of catching up to do!! Mercedes confirms all-electric 2025 Mercedes-Benz S-Class [video] - Torque News

    8) Tesla's new battery gigafactory is going to put them at a HUGE advantage over competitors to bring the price of battery's down and making 200+ mile EVs on the cheap - much cheaper than anyone else could do it. Even BMW's new i8 coming out (which is still a HYBRID), is going to start at $135k, and only has a 7.1kW sized battery with a max electric range of 15-20 miles. Seriously.

    9) the design of the MS itself is going to be pretty hard to top. from the low center of gravity, battery swapping, aerodynamics, frunk+trunk space, roomy interior, and all the cool gadgets and the center console...

    10) and here's another big reason why I don't think anyone else can compete: the SUPERCHARGER NETWORK. First, "drive-free forever" is going to be pretty hard to top. Second, Tesla's proprietary connector and charge rate is faster than any of the open standards (SAE/CHAdeMO). Third, and this is the big one, is that Tesla is footing the bill and installing these all over the US, canada, now EU, essentially globally. And, at least for the time being, these can only be used by Tesla vehicles. So lets say some other manufacturer FINALLY is able to produce a 200+ mile range EV. Can you drive it cross country? Sure! But it's going to be EXTREMELY inefficient and downright a pain-in-the-ass. Even if CHAdeMO stations are installed all over the place, first it's going to be slower and second you're still going to have to pay for the electricity just as you would need to if you were filling up a tank of gas. Basically Tesla's supercharger network is the icing on the cake to crushing the competition (if there is every any). If anyone is serious about making an effective long range EV that people are actually going to consider buying over Tesla, the manufacturer is going to be forced into either 1) licensing and using the charging technology from Tesla (aka Mercedes) or 2) making their own supercharger network (HIGHLY unlikely). Tesla's advantage over the cost of battery packs as well as the range of their vehicle and free charging for life is really just hamming the nail the coffin for everyone else. They simply cannot compete. They are too far behind. If Gen III really takes off this may well be big enough to put everyone else out of business.

    last but not least, 11) powered by the sun, Tesla's supercharger network will help you survive the zombie apocalypse. That's like 5 star crash safety times infinity.
     

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