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How many years before there is a true Model S compeditor?
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I think Hussain is referring to your answer not being in the spirit of the poll. How about guessing for *another* car company (Not Tesla) to have a competitor?
While some might think that the Model X or E might cannibalize or be a competitor to the S, the spirit of the poll is for another company to develop the necessary technology on their own. I'd even argue that if another company bought/licensed all the tech from Tesla it might be more than 7 years to see a competitor, but I'm interested to know other opinions.
And I ran out of options so I opted to say 2025 and 'later or never' instead of putting 2023 or 2024.
I think high range EV and easily accessible fast DC charging network goes hand in hand. If another manufacturer wants to compete this way in the US market, then Tesla being a first mover here has a huge momentum. By the time anyone else starts to building high speed DC charging network, Tesla likely have most of key markets blanketed. Very hard for another vendor to compete with an initial much limited network while Tesla having a mature network by then. Maybe there are opportunities in other parts of the world for a competitive entrant.
I'm guessing its more likely that Tesla will license the access to the charging network and/or EV technology components to enable mass market production volumes rather than true independent alternative competition. Mass production volume seems to be Elon's ultimate goal and other manufacturers are likely necessary to get to this scale.
All the EVs coming out are city cars with ~<=100 mile range. No use building more than this range if there is no convenient long distance option to charge.
So I vote no true independent competitor for the foreseeable future. But joint cooperative efforts for high volume will likely occur. Perhaps as soon as the next 5 years. The model E planning effort itself should probably include the discussion of whether or not to coop with other manufacturers.
I'm guessing its more likely that Tesla will license the access to the charging network and/or EV technology components to enable mass market production volumes rather than true independent alternative competition. Mass production volume seems to be Elon's ultimate goal and other manufacturers are likely necessary to get to this scale.
All the EVs coming out are city cars with ~<=100 mile range. No use building more than this range if there is no convenient long distance option to charge.
So I vote no true independent competitor for the foreseeable future. But joint cooperative efforts for high volume will likely occur. Perhaps as soon as the next 5 years. The model E planning effort itself should probably include the discussion of whether or not to coop with other manufacturers.
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I voted 10 years, though I fear it could be longer. We do ultimately need to have competition in the market.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
I voted 2025
0. It must be able to make long distance travel as easy. In that it must support a charge time as quick and supported by a infrastructure across the USA
3. It must be aesthetically pleasing to a large percentage of buyers, inside and out, or in the same ballpark. Subjective I know, but looks go a long way
4. It must have near the cargo space
5. It must have a lower center of gravity than all other ICE sedans
7. It must have over the air updates to the software
All of those might be hard to accomplish for manufacturers who are only looking for a profitable quarter.
0. It must be able to make long distance travel as easy. In that it must support a charge time as quick and supported by a infrastructure across the USA
3. It must be aesthetically pleasing to a large percentage of buyers, inside and out, or in the same ballpark. Subjective I know, but looks go a long way
4. It must have near the cargo space
5. It must have a lower center of gravity than all other ICE sedans
7. It must have over the air updates to the software
All of those might be hard to accomplish for manufacturers who are only looking for a profitable quarter.
muleferg
Active Member
The only way another manufacturer will succeed WITHOUT the use of a supercharger network will be when 1000+ mile range EVs are possible, and regular 80-100A public charging stations are everywhere. Once you go beyond 1000 mile range, it gets hard to drive that in more than 1 day for the avg person. Even at 100 miles per hour that's 10 hours of driving (well, not exactly due to inefficiency at that speed). A more practical example would be 75mph and lets say driving in the heart of winter, thus being a bit more 'inefficient' in energy usage, , you might only get 600-700 or so miles out of that full 1000 mile charge. But even that's still 9-10 hours of straight driving. If public charging stations are capable of 60-70mph charging (240V @ 100A), then you could probably make due with driving 700 miles straight, staying at a hotel while it charges back up to full on the public charging station. If you're driving that much clearly you're going to drive past some big cities so it makes sense for these stations to be in the heart of the cities near hotels so that one can park, explore, go out to dinner, stay over, then have a full 1000+ mile charge the next day. This *will* be possible some day. You wont really need the supercharger network once that's possible. It is only a matter of time for battery technology to advance. BUT that technology is probably 10 years away. So I still say 2025+.
Really good point, even say 600+ mile range likely will give people the sense of freedom and certainly requires significant improvement on battery energy density which is quite a ways out. From what I've read, Nano tech is the key to battery energy density. They basically need to create more ion exchange surface area while keeping the battery cell small. Kind of like the fractal antenna design in smart phones where there is more antenna length but remains small.
There is also the question of charging even with higher battery energy density. Fast DC chargers can be placed further apart with longer range. This probably allows installation of only say 1/4 of the charger density Model S requires right now. Home chargers will take 20 hours at 40A or 10 hours at 80A for 600 mile range. My 1980 built home panel is 200A supply and probably can not exceed these rates?
chickensevil
Active Member
This is an important point. While right now Tesla really cares about making the customer happy, I fear without competition if they get total market dominance, they might end up caring more about their bottom line and deep pockets instead of doing something that might not be AS profitable (still profitable... Just not the most optimal) just because they can get away with it... Since... You know... No competition.
Tesla still has something to prove, and will be like that until at least the Gen 3. After that becomes hugely successful, we might see a change in attitude.
My guess would be we wont see a change of attitude until Elon leaves. I don't expect that to happen for ten or fifteen years. Once the founder is gone bean counters and professional managers always seem to take over and the company goes downhill from then on. I'm sure you can think of many examples.
2017-2018, 125~150 mile+ vehicle from GM, with the remaining range being EREV style (like the Volt) but with a much smaller engine as generator only (like variants of i3.)
2020 they might actually listen and make a 300 mile car, but by that point Tesla could have a huge market share and they would have a lot of catching up to do.
2020 they might actually listen and make a 300 mile car, but by that point Tesla could have a huge market share and they would have a lot of catching up to do.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, that's true. I will give it to Steve Jobs, he stuck to his guns on what he thought was good/bad. Which is why only NOW Apple is finally releasing devices of different sizes, instead of sticking to one. I still don't like the company, but I will at least give them that they took great care in their products. Anyway, about Tesla, you do get that feeling that a lot of how the S looks and feels came from Elon. From the jumpseats in the back, to the open spaciousness of the car, and definitely the touchscreen in the front. Even if some of these didn't directly come from him, I get the feeling that as soon as it was mentioned he would have jumped all over it.
The car has been built as if it was how they would have built the car if they were going to use it. Like, a wishlist of every little thing you could want in a car... High Safety, long range, amazing performance, etc, etc. And then they built it. If they keep with that idea, and don't shift into the "minor upgrades" that companies get sucked into, then I see great things from this company. Apple, they lost me when they released the iPad mini. That was them saying we are out of innovative ideas, so we are going to make a smaller and crappier iPad. (Again, still, hated the company, always, but at least I give them that thanks to them smartphones and tablets are ubiquitous devices)
From the American side of things, yeah. I don't see any of them doing things that will amaze us. I wrote them off after they scrapped the EV1. I have also written off Honda ever getting there either. I think these two companies are still totally jaded after their EVs from the 90s. Nissan, BMW, and Mercedes are the only three companies I see any real chance of something decent coming out any time soon. Mercedes has said 2025 to match the current Model S, and BMW/Nissan are just too short range... and kinda bad looking cars...
GM's PHEV 40 Volt would be EREV 60 with just a software adjustment (if legislation allowed) LG is also developing Li rich cells so there is a path to higher capacity in same space)
Toyota is strongly under H2 fuel cell delusion, Honda and Hyundai are also affected (but less so)
Nissan continues with LEAF rollout, ie NV-200 vans. cheap is key, don't expect Tesla range or price from Nissan. Nissan's triangle shaped car seems rather earnest, it will not be a Tesla, but will have major fun factor.
BMW could rev the i3 into an i5, but wait and see about that.
Kia....
Yulon - A Tesla Roadster motor in an SUV or van and give it a 48kWh pack http://www.luxgen-motor.com/ev.html you could probably get that today in Taiwan if one wanted it enough.
A Chinese version of Fiskar Karma, perhaps soon.
The major auto's are benchmarking themselves against Nissan not Tesla (ie the BMW i3 is jazzed up Nissan LEAF (its not a Tesla competitor))
lots of PHEVs coming, but not much competition for Tesla (or even Nissan)
perhaps the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV would be a real plug in competitor, seats 7, AWD with twin axle EV motors, real DC charger - Chademo, 12kWh battery and a ICE for long range trips. Its the nearest thing to a Tesla model X competitor and it available today in Japan in Netherlands. Expect future competitors to be more like the Mitsubishi than the Tesla.
Toyota is strongly under H2 fuel cell delusion, Honda and Hyundai are also affected (but less so)
Nissan continues with LEAF rollout, ie NV-200 vans. cheap is key, don't expect Tesla range or price from Nissan. Nissan's triangle shaped car seems rather earnest, it will not be a Tesla, but will have major fun factor.
BMW could rev the i3 into an i5, but wait and see about that.
Kia....
Yulon - A Tesla Roadster motor in an SUV or van and give it a 48kWh pack http://www.luxgen-motor.com/ev.html you could probably get that today in Taiwan if one wanted it enough.
A Chinese version of Fiskar Karma, perhaps soon.
The major auto's are benchmarking themselves against Nissan not Tesla (ie the BMW i3 is jazzed up Nissan LEAF (its not a Tesla competitor))
lots of PHEVs coming, but not much competition for Tesla (or even Nissan)
perhaps the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV would be a real plug in competitor, seats 7, AWD with twin axle EV motors, real DC charger - Chademo, 12kWh battery and a ICE for long range trips. Its the nearest thing to a Tesla model X competitor and it available today in Japan in Netherlands. Expect future competitors to be more like the Mitsubishi than the Tesla.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Wasn’t the bean counters a large part of why GM’s line-up suffered to such an extent that they ended up going BK? And hasn’t Apple shown that keeping bean counters as far away as possible form any kind of decision making what so ever is a pretty smart thing to do?
Shouldn’t those two case studies – Apple, and GM leading up to BK – be enough to ensure that these kinds of snafus don’t happen again?
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Have they made the decision to build that one?
Very unlikely because once the founder leaves, the stock price and executive salaries becomes the only goal. That's why we have CEOs that make 400X what the normal employee of that company makes. In the 1950s CEO made 10X. Something went terribly wrong.
2108. The Gigafactory announcement, Supercharger network expansion, increased cell manufacturing, increased model S production, Model X productoon means that by the middle of 2015 competitors will get really serious and go ahead and build a 200 mile BEV. Falling cell prices will allow the competitors to build a competitive vehicle without taking too much of a loss that ZEV credit requirements don't matter. BMW, with its i series with lightweight body are in the best position to compete.
For those who believe in a competitor for 2018, I'd imagine we would see a concept in 2015 as it would need to be a completely new chassis and new chassis take about 3 to 5 years of development.
Looks like a clear winner for 2018 and second being 2017. Looks like NAIAS 2015 should be very interesting as that might be the likely unveiling of E or a solid competitor then
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