How much do you think a used Tesla Model 3 would be worth in 3/4 years time?

[JAH021197]

First of all hi, this is my first post. I was wondering how much everyone thinks a used Tesla Model 3 would be in like 3/4 years time.

I know production of right hand drive Model 3's doesn't start until next year but I was curious as I'm a huge Tesla fan. I'm hoping for them to be around the £20k mark. No jokes about me not being able to afford a new "poor man's Tesla" please, I'm only 21. I was just thinking if I could save over £3k a year so that in a three or four years I can put down a £9k or £12k deposit then it should be viable.

 

[culverwood]

I suspect that as deliveries will probably only start to the UK sometime in 2019 if we are lucky you will be lucky to pick one up for £20k.

 

[JAH021197]

I suspect that as deliveries will probably only start to the UK sometime in 2019 if we are lucky you will be lucky to pick one up for £20k.

Thanks for your honest opinion haha, it may be wishful thinking but oh well, if I have to wait longer then I will!

 

[WannabeOwner]

Buy some Tesla stock? ... you might even be able to afford a Roadster by then if Tesla keeps on heading for the stars ...

 

[JAH021197]

Buy some Tesla stock? ... you might even be able to afford a Roadster by then if Tesla keeps on heading for the stars ...

I'd be over the moon with a Model S haha! Wouldn't I need the shares to go up loads though considering the US Government taxes you 30%? Do you have shares?

 

[WannabeOwner]

I know nothing about shares ... my personal investment is in myself which I have some control over!

AFAIK as a foreign national you are allowed to avoid the 30% tax, but (again AFAIK) that only relates to Dividends and (AFAIK again ...) Tesla has never paid any ... so any investment [in Tesla stock] is hoping for capital growth, not income (well ... at some point Tesla will pay dividends, so anyone still in the game would get a payout then)

If you made a capital gain on Tesla stock you would have to pay UK CGT ... but there are annual exemptions for that so, as a small investor, that might amount to nothing / not much. Might be possible to invest in USA stocks using an ISA, which would provide further tax sheltering ... I have no idea if you would, also, have to pay some sort of USA tax on the profits of the share-sale.

Hmmm ... perhaps a self administered pension could buy Tesla stock. Might be handy for anyone who will be 55 by the time they buy the car ... I don't suppose the SSAS/SIPP can buy & own the car ... unless perhaps it was leasing it out.

All that stuff is a minefield ... my Pensions guy achieves a decent return, the company uses the pension money to advantage, but that's about the top & bottom of it as far as I am concerned.

 

[JAH021197]

I know nothing about shares ... my personal investment is in myself which I have some control over!

AFAIK as a foreign national you are allowed to avoid the 30% tax, but (again AFAIK) that only relates to Dividends and (AFAIK again ...) Tesla has never paid any ... so any investment [in Tesla stock] is hoping for capital growth, not income (well ... at some point Tesla will pay dividends, so anyone still in the game would get a payout then)

If you made a capital gain on Tesla stock you would have to pay UK CGT ... but there are annual exemptions for that so, as a small investor, that might amount to nothing / not much. Might be possible to invest in USA stocks using an ISA, which would provide further tax sheltering ... I have no idea if you would, also, have to pay some sort of USA tax on the profits of the share-sale.

Hmmm ... perhaps a self administered pension could buy Tesla stock. Might be handy for anyone who will be 55 by the time they buy the car ... I don't suppose the SSAS/SIPP can buy & own the car ... unless perhaps it was leasing it out.

All that stuff is a minefield ... my Pensions guy achieves a decent return, the company uses the pension money to advantage, but that's about the top & bottom of it as far as I am concerned.

Thanks for the help. I was just worried about putting thousands in to Tesla stocks just for them to remain stagnant and then lose 30% of what I put in. I guess as with investing in general it's a big risk

 

[WannabeOwner]

I guess as with investing in general it's a big risk

Yes ... but ... if Tesla goes bust you aren't going to be getting one of their cars. Sure ... your money is gone too ...

... if Tesla thrive then you will be getting the car at a discount price.

You might consider that, worst case, Tesla will be bought by someone else, rather than go bust, so perhaps limited chance to lose all your money.

Of course easier to decide to make any risky investment if the money you are investing is surplus to requirements ... if you aren't in that category then you will only really reap reward if the increase is significant. A 10% increase, when inflation is only 3%, is not exactly going to make a difference to you (on a few £1000 invested ... given that you might lose the lot). Tesla has done x10 over the last 5 years, but Microsoft / Amazon etc. have done x5 (and presumably also paid dividends). Possible difference with Tesla is that their stock price is up-and-down, whereas MS / Amazon less volatile, so you could invest every time Tesla takes a nosedive, thus chance of reaping higher rewards. Of course the nosedive may be followed by another - and you can then buy more - if you have the cash! - as the second purchase needs less recovery to recoup value than the first. If it keeps going down ... and you keep buying .. hmmm ...

... the usual advice is that it is best to pay off all debt before any saving / investing.

All complete hypothetical though ... hopefully someone who actually knows something about buying USA stocks with GBP from UK will be along in a minute

 

[DJP31]

All complete hypothetical though ... hopefully someone who actually knows something about buying USA stocks with GBP from UK will be along in a minute

I know very little about that but my first question would be what is the individuals capacity for loss? They may be prepared to invest in speculative stock, which Tesla undoubtedly is, (not to mention currency risk) but can they afford to lose the money? My best guess as far as the OP is concerned is probably no. Better to save the money as the OP has suggested he will be doing and having a reasonable deposit for the 3 in a few years time. I'd also be building up my NCD as the insurance won't be peanuts either!

 

[JAH021197]

I know very little about that but my first question would be what is the individuals capacity for loss? They may be prepared to invest in speculative stock, which Tesla undoubtedly is, (not to mention currency risk) but can they afford to lose the money? My best guess as far as the OP is concerned is probably no. Better to save the money as the OP has suggested he will be doing and having a reasonable deposit for the 3 in a few years time. I'd also be building up my NCD as the insurance won't be peanuts either!

Yeah I guess just plain saving is probably best and then maybe invest a little here and there once I actually have the car. Thanks for the input!

 

[WannabeOwner]

Better to save the money

Two schools of thought though: OP is young, so plenty of lifetime to recoup losses. Depends on how risk adverse though ...

During my lifetime I have regularly "bet the farm", but only ever on my own endeavours, not on something I had no control over. Bog Standard analysis rates me "Very low for risk-adverse", which I find surprising seeing as I would never entrust large sums to A.N.Other ...

But either way, invest £1,000 and make 10x and its still only £10K ... not going to make much difference to lifestyle.

Invest £10,000 and if lucky make £100,000 - much more lucrative, but probably £10K is too huge an amount to lose ...

Personally I'd concentrate on making my own money, rather than taking a punt on someone else. Seemed to work OK for Elon ... and Michael Dell (IIRC when he swapped stamps at school he also charged a premium!! and he'd made a million by the time he left school) ... or figure out how to leverage someone else's money, like Jeff Bezos (willing, wealthy, parents helps ...)