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How much more damage will Remarketing do to Tesla sales before they figure it out?!?

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When I first launched ev-cpo, I was updating the "listing date" to the current date is a car was unlisted and then relisted. Then I added a "Days on Market" column to see the cars that were or were not selling quickly. Right after I did that, I started to notice Tesla delisting and immediately relisting cars with large DOM values, which had the effect of resetting the DOM calculation. Now since correlation is not causation, I have no idea if Tesla was doing that intentionally to reset the DOM calculation, or it was just a coincidence. Either way, I changed the site so that if a car was re-listed, it always retains the original listing date. And it's still that way now. So if you look at "Date Added" that always reflects the first date with the car was found and listed.


Sounds good - kind of like an original attribute of the primary key (being the Vin # itself) to identify the original attribute of the row. Re-listing and causing a reset of DOM might have been a trick to the aggregators - but now if you refer to the first date it's more realistic.
 
Tesla wants to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport, but they want to do it as a profitable company, not a non-profit.
Sure they might have lost your business (for the time being) but they've made money on ten other trade-ins since this discussion started.

That is one hypothesis. Sure.

But it is not an unreasonable hypothesis that Tesla mighy actually make more profit by lowering their trade-in profit and thus selling more higher margin new cars.

It is plausible. Not certain, of course, but a hypothesis just like yours.
 
Not quite a logical response.

If Tesla sells another NEW MS and makes $10,000, that is far better than not selling a new MS and making nothing. Again, it's about cash flow. Some profit, any profit, helps pay for the list of things you noted above.

Their situation now encourages NO SALE, and it's dumb.
Your reasoning is flawed here because a shift to your suggested strategy would cause them to lose money compared to every CPO sale they make today. By analogy, you could equally argue that Tesla should charge less for their new cars. Then they would sell more!

But the reality is that Tesla tries to maximize profit while growing. Elon knows that he needs capital for growth, and shareholders have a profit motive. I would be a lot more sympathetic to your argument if a secondary market did not exist.

Cheers, and thank you very much for supporting Tesla.
 
Your reasoning is flawed here because a shift to your suggested strategy would cause them to lose money compared to every CPO sale they make today. By analogy, you could equally argue that Tesla should charge less for their new cars. Then they would sell more!

But the reality is that Tesla tries to maximize profit while growing. Elon knows that he needs capital for growth, and shareholders have a profit motive. I would be a lot more sympathetic to your argument if a secondary market did not exist.

Cheers, and thank you very much for supporting Tesla.

It is not my hypothesis. It is @TSLA Pilot 's - my understanding of it anyway. I just consider it a reasonable hypothesis. It may or may not be right, but it did not "reek of entitlement" (as some suggested) to me. Just one thesis/hypothesis amongst others.

And yes, Tesla might well also sell more cars and make more money by lowering prices. It is not impossible nor unreasonable to speculate or opine on in any case.

These are the balancing acts of any business.
 
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That is one hypothesis. Sure.

But it is not an unreasonable hypothesis that Tesla mighy actually make more profit by lowering their trade-in profit and thus selling more higher margin new cars.

It is plausible. Not certain, of course, but a hypothesis just like yours.
True, but I bet Tesla has given it a lot more thought than either of us, so whatever they're doing currently is probably the best strategy.
 
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The OP has such flawed logic, I don't know where to start.
1. Listed prices on ev-cpo are not necessarily the fair market value of the car. I can list my home for $2M; doesn't mean it is worth that much. Check how long the P90Ds are sitting on ev-cpo.com. Tesla is not finding it easy to unload the high priced CPO cars.
For a fair price, how about the highest bid price on this P90DL with 14 hours to go, with just 4410 miles? it's not even private party. it's being sold by Maserati dealer.
2016 Tesla Model S P90D | eBay

Time left:14h 3m 31s Sunday, 11:06AM
Current bid: US $90,100.00



Tesla will be taking a loss after puirchasing the OP's car at $97,600 ( or $100,900 ?).

2. CPO prices can be even lower 2 months down the road, when current trade ins will be sold.

3. Selling 5 Teslas to one person doesn't lead to sustainable transportation. The OP is not going to drive 5 times more. That will be more wasteful actually. Keeping 5 parked cars, and consuming the huge battery packs is also actually worse for the environment.

4. The OP can only fight the free market for so long. Why fight and try to distort the reality?

Another otherwise somewhat intelligent post, but that misses the point, and it misses many HUGE details in this sale to wildly extrapolate to an incorrect conclusion. (And your 3rd point is odd--we don't buy Teslas to park them. We cycle through Teslas to put more on the street and displace ICE cars. Our oldest, an early '13 P85, now has 82k miles in my brother's use.)

Now to your other points:

First, one eBay auction does not a market make, especially because it is but a single point in time: what was it worth to those searching for this exact car when the auction ended?

Second, this car has the "death" option for a P90D: Third Row Seats. They weigh add a hundred pounds (or more) to the car and how many people are looking for a performance car with extra mass for slower performance?

Third, it's missing an enabled AP. People like their P90D's loaded.

Fourth, let's look at the seller. It's 2017, yet the seller has ZERO previous sales? How does that happen? Furthermore, he's not listed the eBay CarFax equivalent on this site? Really? He's too cheap to spring for that on a car with an MSRP in the $140k's? Something is fishy, hence: Low bids and a major PASS.

However, let's agree, just for arguments sake, that this P90D eBay auction somehow is an indicator of "market value" for a Tesla P90D CPO. (Which I don't think is accurate.) If I buy a new P100D with a margin of $30,000+, and they give me $115k for my trade in, where does Tesla stand?

Tesla stands to make $5,000 profit, at a minimum, and they make another new car sale. The new car sale stops the negative trend in the deliveries, which is likely a key factor in TSLA stock decline.

And since I suggest your premise is wrong anyway--with proper marketing to the right buyers, the Tesla CPO market should explode, and lead to increased demand and stronger pricing.

Examples:

1. Why is not nearly every employee car in Tesla's Fremont factory and HQ a Tesla CPO? I can easily see all sorts of payroll deduction programs to get everyone from the interns (well, maybe not them) to the C-Suite execs in a new or CPO Tesla ASAP. An MS 60 from 2013 is getting to the point where the payments could be manageable by a large swath of the employees, even in high cost CA.

2. Speaking of generating demand: Lists and more lists! For little money I can probably buy a list with the home address of every EPA employee that is a GS-____ or higher. We should be leaving a loaner Tesla in their driveway for a week. If they can't swing a new one, we should give them a list of CPO's that will fit their needs, with finance and lease terms that work for them.

3. How about sending targeted mailings to every Leaf and Volt owner that meets certain demographic profiles, offering them the one week Tesla "drop off?" They are quite perfect for this as they already have charging infrastructure at their home or office. Feels like a no-brainer to create more demand for CPO Teslas, no?

In closing, your interesting eBay auction example is yet another example of why Tesla.com should be THE source for all Tesla sales, both CPO and new.

Thank you for your comments.
 
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Your right, moving cars is most important. Instead of overpricing your trade and taking a loss on the CPO resale, they should just drop the price of ALL the new cars by that magic $10-18k you think your trade is underpriced. That would benefit everyone!

Of course, you're trying to be funny, right?

In case you're not, Elon's all about no price reductions on a new, non-inventory, Tesla.

Thus, since there are major sales problems (see 10% deliveries drop and January sales that fell off a cliff), he needs to incentivise people like me: a strong supporter that WANTS to buy one or two no Teslas. There are likely a lot of us that will pull out our wallets if he'll make us "an offer we can't refuse" on our trade-ins.

How does Tesla avoid being killed on huge losses on the CPO cars?

BY MARKETING THEM CORRECTLY TO THE RIGHT BUYERS. This is something that has not been done, and is the reason this thread exists. Here are the facts:

1. The Tesla CPO search engine is an absolute joke.

2. Their policies (such as stripping off thousands of dollars of wrap and throwing it away?!?) are stupid, if not insane.

3. They end up dumping way, way too many for a small fraction of their worth at used car sellers around the globe, which damages value and looks, and is, pathetic.

Here's just one example:

Get WOW'd at Texas Direct Auto!

Compare this seller with Tesla's own site:

Tesla has NOT ONE PICTURE of a CPO Tesla. These guys have a dozen plus.

It's long past time for new thinking at Tesla Remarketing, and it's critical that it happen YESTERDAY.
 
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Maybe that is because the rest of us know that the reason deliveries were down 10% is because they had a production slowdown in the transition to AP2, not because of insufficient demand. They communicated that on 1/3/17, and also that orders were up 49% in Q4 in the document you referenced above.


Maybe, maybe not.

With all due respect, I find it hard to believe. That explanation just doesn't carry a lot of water. Tesla has been building MS's for a while, and the MX demand is well known as well. Suppliers had a date to be up and running, and the numbers needed were pretty straight forward (and are small by OEM standards given that Tesla has a fraction of 1% of the global auto market).

I posit that if deliveries aren't up to snuff, there may be other reasons over and above those provided . . . .

I would very much like to help fix that by buying another MS, as would others who want to upgrade for the promises of AP2, but as long as OA's cringe (and rightfully so) when someone pulls up in a Tesla, well, I don't see a lot of us doing that.

Tesla should be the Center of the Universe for all things BEV and Tesla. The best way to do that is to get us back in a new Tesla more often, and fixing their very, very broken CPO Program.
 
Buying $100k cars isn't efficient, buying any depreciating asset isn't efficient. Trading in a car in perfect shape that performs fine isn't efficient.

If you care so much about saving the planet, buy a new car, or better yet, Walk instead of driving.

Get over it, credibility lost.

Stirthepot, I'm not sure you wrote your thoughts correctly?

I AM trying to buy a new Tesla. This does good things: it helps reverse Tesla's negative trend line on deliveries, and it puts another new SOLD Tesla on the street.

Walking isn't an option as I need to go too far in any given day.

It's not like they're crushing our trade ins. They sell them, hopefully, as CPO's. Problem: CPO Program is a disaster and needs a thorough revamp.

Thanks.
 
TslaPilot, I am tracking to fewer deliveries in 17Q1 than 16Q4. But it surely is far better than 16Q1. Thoughts?

Wish I could agree, but I see a major problem looming for both Q1 and Q2 if this is accurate:

January 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

It may be an anomaly, or it may suggest that every passing day that brings us closer to July 1st is a major problem because more cars need to be sold in an ever smaller number of days.

Tesla knows for sure how bad it is (or maybe not), but, regardless, I've relayed my very recent experience. I've told you the hell the OA's endure when someone tries to trade a Tesla in.

I'ts just stunning. I've purchased a lot of Teslas. I'd like to buy one (or maybe even two) more this quarter, and I'm stymied because Tesla Remarketing has an atrocious CPO program that drives down the value of the cars and the brand (see the number of Teslas for sale at used cars "megastores" online).

Someone at Tesla just don't seem to get it:

Their job is NOT to just "unload" used Teslas. Their job is to stimulate demand for new Teslas . . . that's where our planet is saved (and some money might be made).

What's not to like about that outcome?
 
I think there is a lot of misunderstanding @TSLA Pilot in this thread. Partly his fault for making it sound too much about him when that is not his point IMO.

His point is:

Telsa remarketing is offering lower valuations for trade-ins than the market value - or perhaps lower that competition would for a trade-in - and that @TSLA Pilot feels on the balance is bad for Tesla's profits as it discourages upgrades (i.e. high profit new cars orders) more than it should.

@TSLA Pilot 's view seems to be Tesla would make more money by valuing trade-ins higher and thus making more new car sales.

It is not about his car. That was just the anecdotal data point that got his ball rolling.

He may be right or wrong, but it is not an unreasonable business thesis by any means.

Thank you for your concise summary; you hit the nail on the head.

It's all about stimulating the sale of NEW Teslas.

Everything is good when a new Tesla gets sold!
 
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I get this thread.

Full on entitlement.

Here's the reality of the growing company sales objectives....

NEW CUSTOMERS

They already have you as a customer.


Sorry, but you are only 1/3rd correct.

Three ways to grow sales:

1. Get more customers.

2. Get current customers to return more often.

3. Get current customers to buy more with each visit.

I'm trying to help Tesla to do a better job with 2 and 3.

I want to buy one (or two) more MS's THIS quarter.

But I won't.

Why? Because Tesla Remarketing is broken.

It's just that simple.
 
There isn't a scrap of evidence that this is the case. Tesla owners are generally affluent and educated. The idea that they are en masse accepting below market value for their trade-ins is laughable. What's happening is that Tesla Pilot is comparing a trade-in value to a retail value and complaining about the spread, while ignoring all of the reconditioning and logistics costs.

I agree with JAFO, it reeks of entitlement.

No, they aren't accepting "below market value" en masse.

They just don't trade them in at Tesla so they buy something else, or they don't do anything at all (see: deliveries down by 10%; January sales falling off a cliff).

The spread of which you speak appears to be $18,000:

Model S P90D 5YJSA1E40GF126555 | Tesla

My point: reduce that spread and Tesla will sell more NEW Teslas.

That is the source of all good things for our planet's future and for Tesla going forward.

Period.

I'm sorry you cannot understand the business case for encouraging Tesla owners to get on an iPhone-like trade-in/replacement schedule.
 
I was playing around on my website and found a similar car to yours, Model S P90D 5YJSA1E40FF109155 | Tesla . Based off your post, I found the closest CPO Tesla has for sale right now almost matches your car, with the exception of Tan seats instead of Black and the color is Pearl White instead of your Midnight Silver (Pearl white is actually more expensive).

Tesla is selling their car for $111,000. So I looked at your original post and the car that you originally quoted at 116k has rear facing seats. So it isn't as quite a good comparison as the one I found.

Being that your car has about 1,000 more miles, it could be said that another $1,000 could be deducted from the 111k comparable car. Therefore I think the 10k delta is much more reasonable than the 16k delta you originally spoke of. What they listed for the value of your car, post 1 on this thread, I agree with.

Thanks Erik

Good find.

I wonder why there's such a spread between cars?

Model S P90D 5YJSA1E40GF126555 | Tesla

My hunch: condition?

Hard to know when Tesla CPO asks buyers to buy a six-figure car without a SINGLE PHOTO of the actual car . . . .

Tip to Tesla: Buy some high-end drones. Program them to take an identical flight path around a Tesla parked in exactly the same spot every time. Post the 360 degree videos on the CPO site so that buyers might get to virtually inspect the car they're interested in.

It's not too hard to increase demand for CPO Teslas and stop their "dumping" on the internet's used car megastores.
 
Checked Tesla stock lately? Investors don't seem to be sharing your concern.

Confused about your comment.

Aren't we down something like 10 or 15% in the last few trading days?

I don't focus on that all the time because it can become an "attitude barometer" and who needs that? I'm in this to save the friggin' planet and to do that Tesla, and TSLA, need to do well.
 
The auction of the 2016 P90DL with 4410 miles, original MSRP $144k, that I mentioned earlier just ended. Final bid went up by $1000 in the last minute, to $91,100. Those CPO asking prices look high. $100.9k for the OP's car (2015 with more miles) was a very good offer, IMO.

2016 Tesla Model S P90D | eBay

Already discussed, but this one sale doesn't "make the market" for host of reasons:

1. No seller history. Zero. How does that happen in 2017?

2. No CarFax equivalent posted. Red flag.

3. Has undesired/negative option in the 3rd Row Seat option. When Force = mass X's acceleration (F = ma), you want a lower "m" for more "a."

And it's yet another example of a car that TESLA should be selling, not some schmuck on the internet . . . it's likely there because Tesla Remarketing is a failure and they wholesaled it for pennies on the dollar, or because the original owner wanted the AP2 upgrade and was insulted by the trade in offer?

(Tesla probably knows, but they're not talking;-)
 
1. Then they'd go broke even faster than they are now.

2. I don't want to sell my Tesla. I have an AP1 Model S P85D still on firmware 7.1. My Tesla actually works properly. New Teslas all come out of the factory broken.

So Tesla will "go broke even faster" by selling more new Teslas?

This is absurd.

The major cash flow at Tesla comes from THE SALE OF NEW TESLAS.

The profit is, ah, a bit short because of a host of reasons: Gigafactories are expensive, new SC's are expensive, GROWTH is expensive.

But that's the story of GROWTH companies and it's okay.

BUT: We have a potential disaster brewing is the short-term delivery shortfall isn't just the regular variation in sales.

I'm trying to help.

Tesla Remarketing makes it difficult for me, and others--to include Tesla's own OA's--to buy/sell more Teslas.

That needs to be fixed.
 
When I first launched ev-cpo, I was updating the "listing date" to the current date is a car was unlisted and then relisted. Then I added a "Days on Market" column to see the cars that were or were not selling quickly. Right after I did that, I started to notice Tesla delisting and immediately relisting cars with large DOM values, which had the effect of resetting the DOM calculation. Now since correlation is not causation, I have no idea if Tesla was doing that intentionally to reset the DOM calculation, or it was just a coincidence. Either way, I changed the site so that if a car was re-listed, it always retains the original listing date. And it's still that way now. So if you look at "Date Added" that always reflects the first date with the car was found and listed.

Very clever and informative.

You are quite the asset to all Tesla buyers!
 
Car dealers generally frown upon any modifications to cars. You'd be better off selling it privately or to a used car dealer. You seemed so fixated on how they can remove thousands of dollars of wrap - anything aftermarket is typically removed so that the car can be sold as OEM spec as possible. Wheels, wrap, dashcams, radar detectors, laser jammers, all of that has a cost to remove. I see where you're coming from but I'm sure that there is a calculated method to their madness. And who's to say that they aren't implementing the ideas you're speaking of in markets outside of your own?
 
Wish I could agree, but I see a major problem looming for both Q1 and Q2 if this is accurate:

January 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

It may be an anomaly, or it may suggest that every passing day that brings us closer to July 1st is a major problem because more cars need to be sold in an ever smaller number of days.

Tesla knows for sure how bad it is (or maybe not), but, regardless, I've relayed my very recent experience. I've told you the hell the OA's endure when someone tries to trade a Tesla in.

I'ts just stunning. I've purchased a lot of Teslas. I'd like to buy one (or maybe even two) more this quarter, and I'm stymied because Tesla Remarketing has an atrocious CPO program that drives down the value of the cars and the brand (see the number of Teslas for sale at used cars "megastores" online).

Someone at Tesla just don't seem to get it:

Their job is NOT to just "unload" used Teslas. Their job is to stimulate demand for new Teslas . . . that's where our planet is saved (and some money might be made).

What's not to like about that outcome?

What is your use of the Teslas? Are you trading in after short periods or do you run a fleet of Uber-type cars? I could also guess you are trying to "help" Tesla by rolling new-unit sales through high purchase count but I haven't read your past posts in detail.