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How much should battery upgrade cost, really?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Lukas99, May 4, 2016.

  1. Lukas99

    Lukas99 Member

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    Hi there!

    Most of you have for sure read the news about BMW announcing the 2017 version of its i3 model. Major news being (hopefully I remember to numbers well) that the battery pack is 50% larger, moving from 22kWh to 33kWh... More interestingly however, if you look at the article below, the cost of the 11kWh upgrade is only $2000 vs. the original version.

    It makes me wonder, what is the reasonable cost that Tesla can ask for a let's say 20Wh upgrade from 50Kwh to 70Kwh battery pack? Based on simple math using the i3 case, this upgrade shall be $4000 or max $5000. In that case, battery upgrade would be much more affordable and preferred choice by most M3 buyers. I would definitely go for it!

    2017 BMW i3 Getting 50% Range Boost
     
  2. gordo

    gordo Member

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    Not exactly sure what you're talking about as there is no 50kwh Tesla today.

    Furthermore, I think you're confusing the availability of larger capacity batteries in new vehicles versus a swap. Understand that in a swap scenario, the manufacturer is taking a back a partially used battery pack and they can't just re-use the cells in a new car.
     
  3. Lukas99

    Lukas99 Member

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    I just took the info that the base pack for M3 will be below 60Kwh, so I took 50 kWh as a base for illustration purposes. It is not important for the math, same logic works for an upgrade from 60-80kWh... I simply took the incremental cost of extra 11kWh in case of the i3...

    As far as the price for the upgrade goes, I understand that $2000 is the price difference between the brand new i3 33kWh and 22kWh. But I might be wrong. But if it goes the way I described, that it is the same as chosing M3 with larger battery pack, in this i3 case the cost is extra $2000.
     
  4. Dan Detweiler

    Dan Detweiler Member

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    I agree with you. If your math turns out to be accurate, there will be a whole bunch of folks checking the upgraded battery box in the design studio when the time comes.

    Dan
     
  5. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    It'd be fun if the whole 60 kWh thing and 215 miles was a ruse to fool the competition and the real base model goes 300 mi. per charge. Maybe that's just wishful thinking.
     
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  6. MickC

    MickC Member

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    My DS told me during the test drive that an battery upgrade costs +- 20.000 EURO (+- 25.000 USD)...
    Don't know if this is correct as it was just something that came up during many topics that we discussed.
     
  7. jonnyg

    jonnyg Member

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    Not sure it's directly comparable, as the new 33 kWh battery version apparently uses higher density cells instead of just adding on more modules.

     
  8. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    If the batteries are really around $190 per kWh then it won't cost anywhere near $25,000 ... how much tesla will actually charge is another story.
     
  9. Lukas99

    Lukas99 Member

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    In that case, 20kWh extra would cost $4000, which is the same price per kWh as the BMW i3 markup for 10kWh at $2000 USD :)... This is also the final retail price for the upgrade, lets hope Tesla is not gonna be far off. Then I would definitely go for a higer battery spec...
     
  10. voip-ninja

    voip-ninja Member

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    I agree, Tesla is in business to make money, they will charge the maximum that their research indicates people are willing to pay in order to increase the range by 35%.
     
  11. melindav

    melindav ☰ reserved

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    the Model S jump from a 70D to 90D is $13k. So maybe your DS was looking at something being added on besides just the battery, or he(she) is just not great with math.
     
  12. Lukas99

    Lukas99 Member

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    I hope this is market skimming with cars currently being sold well over $100k... With much larger (but more price sensitive) addressable market, $13k would be way too much... Overall I am guessing that with M3, all the options shall be cheaper across the board on per unit basis... Just different market segments, maybe at the cost of limited feature set, but upsell needs to work for people to spend 15k on extras instead of 10k and still feel good about it :)...
     
  13. houdini

    houdini Member

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    I'm budgetting for $10,000 for the upgraded/larger battery. Not a lot of science but I'm taking the current $13,000 cost on the S and then factoring in Tesla will be making everything for the batteries in the Gigafactory thereby reducing their cost of production. So $10K will give them a decent profit and feels like a reasonable price for owners as far as optioning up goes. $35K for the base, $45K for the longer range one.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. MiamiNole

    MiamiNole Member

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    One thing that isn't being discussed in this topic is adding the dual-motor on top of the battery option. Right now on the Model S, the larger battery option is only being offered with dual-motor. So the larger battery isn't necessarily just a $13,000 cost. It's a $18,000 cost when you factor in having to add the dual-motor option on top of it. Even if you discount that cost to, say, $13,000 total (discounting the price of the battery from $13,000 to $10,000 for the 3 and discounting the price of dual-motors from $5000 to $3000), you're still looking at a $48,000 car with just the battery option being added.

    So if you factor in the cost of the battery going down (>$190 per kWh) against the notion that Tesla will still charge what people are willing to pay (referencing JeffK's and voip-ninja's posts) and adding that this is going to be a mass produced vehicle, something most likely will have to give regarding the pricing of the battery option. Maybe the larger battery will be offered without dual-motors? Or maybe Tesla will be willing to sell the battery option much closer to cost than the Model S and X due to economy of scale being factored in? Still a lot of questions to be answered regarding the battery option.
     
  15. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I don't think it's really comparable. There aren't two versions with $2K to upgrade. They are coming out with a new model with a bunch of differences including the better battery pack and raising the price. However, since the old model was a really bad deal price wise, this just brings it a bit more in line. It has absolutely nothing to do with battery pack upgrade costs. It makes the same amount of sense as comparing the Tesla Model S 70 to the old Tesla Model S 60 to determine Tesla battery upgrade costs.
     
  16. Booga

    Booga Member

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    #16 Booga, May 4, 2016
    Last edited: May 4, 2016
    Generally, I think that's a very reasonable approach. The only other variable, which we don't have data for, is the marginal cost of batteries. Let me preface my idea by saying that I am not an expert and so I welcome people to tell me where I'm wrong.

    When processors are made, for example, they come at different clock speeds. Maybe one is 2Ghz, but you can buy it in variants of 1.8, 2.2, and 2.4. In many cases, the company is actually manufacturing the same thing a number of times, but based on how they perform, they assign the higher quality products to the higher clock speeds. They can sell the slower ones at lower prices then.

    Given that the Model 3 doesn't need as large of battery capacity/density as the Model S/X, I wonder if we're going to see their battery prices, especially for upgrades, be cheaper than what the S/X models experience. Going from 50 or 55 kwh to 70 is much easier than going from 70/75 kwh to 90 in this example, because the quality of cells needed to achieve those really high capacities may eliminate many from being used in the larger cars. My belief or expectation is that the Tesla wall packs (in addition to the Model 3) are also a usage for the batteries that didn't meet Model S/X requirements.

    While battery chemistry has improved and will continue to improve along with improvements in the manufacturing process, I don't think most people realize how much variability you get from one battery to the next. It's difficult to make them very consistent to my understanding. By determining the "grade" or quality of the battery, they can determine where it goes, and my hope is that this means a more affordable battery makes its way to the Model 3.

    I'm being optimistic, because I can't afford the upgrades based on Model S prices, but here is what I'm hoping for:
    Range upgrade: $5k
    AWD: $2.5k
    Autopilot: $1k
    Subzero Weather Package: $500
    Audio: $1.5k
    Delivery/Doc: $1k (Though I want to avoid delivery and do a California pickup myself if they allow it)
    Subtotal: $46.5k

    Sales tax: $4k
    Grand total: $50.5k

    Tax incentives: $3,750-7,500
    Net total: $43k-46k

    No matter how i look at it, this is still a darn expensive car, even if I were to pass on the AWD and audio packages. I'm really hoping to be below the $40k mark, though especially with sales tax factored in, I don't think that is going to happen. I'm thankful I still have a year or so till I have to decide. If I get the $7,500 tax rebate, I will likely get the car no matter what.
     
  17. Candleflame

    Candleflame Member

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    The 22kwh was already a downgrade imho since the BMW ActivE had a 30kwh battery. When I first heard about the ActivE I assumed that the delivery model would have a 45kwh battery or smth. How wrong I was....
     
  18. NoPetrolDream

    NoPetrolDream Member

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    Just doing some paper napkin math, based on Elon's statement that average selling price of Model 3 will be $42k. So, if base price is $35k, for a median price of $42k the top end of the range would be $50k. This is based on (50-35)/2 + 35. Could be completely wrong. That math works for calibrating actuators, but maybe not for Tesla car pricing. :)

    But let's say that $50k is the top end. How would that break down as for optioning up the car to reach that price? Perhaps $10k for bundled AWD and higher capacity battery, bringing cost to $45k, leaving $5k for Autopilot/Summon enabled, Supercharging enabled, high end wheels and audio system, service agreement, high end interior, all glass roof with sunroof, and whatever else I missed. Sounds very optimistic to squeak all that in for $5k, but would be totally cool if it verified.
     
  19. zuwarrior14

    zuwarrior14 Member

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    I wish Elon would have given us the standard deviation in addition to the median... :)
     
  20. ucmndd

    ucmndd Member

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    I think you're close, but I don't think those will be separate options. I doubt there will be a RWD big battery model. My guess is ~$10k to jump from the base model RWD to the big battery "D".
     

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