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How much used M3 will depreciate if 7k federal rebate happens

Well, if that happens I don’t believe it will devalue the car at all...the wait list will probably be 3 times longer to receive one from factory, so you have the advantage if they are not willing to wait to get a new one. You might get the typical car buyer “ I cAn GeT ThIs NeW fOr AbOuT tHe SaMe PrIcE”
And that’s true but they will be waiting 6 months

Also..never look at a car as an investment...especially one from a newer company.
If Teslas become eligible for $7k federal tax credits, it will have a trickle-down effect on used values; assuming Tesla doesn't adjust new prices up equivalently in the process. Anytime there is a notable price drop whether it be a reduced MSRP, new rebates, new tax credits, etc. it will impact used values.

If a new LR AWD is currently $47k and a similar used 2020 is worth $41k retail, a $7k tax credit would drop the new price down to $40k which means the 2020 retail value (and therefore also the wholesale value) would have to drop sufficiently below that which would then impact the value of 2019s, and so on. The impact would diminish the older you go.

However, if you decide to trade for a new Tesla during this tax credit time then the resale value drop sort of becomes a wash since you are also able to buy the new car for less. Yes, your car is worth less but the car you are buying is also worth less (cheaper to buy).

Whether or not the tax credit returns to Teslas remains to be seen but since there's nothing you can do about it, there's no sense worrying too much about it. It will only be short-term anyway. I think we can expect a price volatility in the EV market for a while.
Maybe used car price will be down but the federal rebate “effect” will only last until 400k more cars are sold here in the US. So less than 2 years.

Tesla want to sell 1M vehicles worldwide in 2021.

The tax credit won’t even last a year. They’ll probably sell 400k in 2021 WITHOUT the federal tax credit. Imagine how many they’ll sell once they introduce it again.
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Eh. Won't change much. There's always been this speculation that "omg the cars will be worthless!111!!!1" right around the corner, but it hasn't happened.

Model 3 is a hot car, in demand. That will keep the prices up... right until it's not hotness anymore, then they'll drop.

Like every other car on the market ...
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"In demand" yet still seeing price reductions. Ten months ago, Tesla cut M3 base prices by $2k across the board and then just a few days ago they further cut SR+ and LR AWD prices by another $1k each.

That’s been Tesla’s modus operandi since day 1. They’ve continually been driving the price down even when in strong demand.
Much like Costco — they do all they can to drive the cost down and make the product more affordable.