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How optimistic are you feeling about FSD progress in 2021?

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by shrineofchance, Feb 25, 2021.

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How optimistic are you feeling about FSD progress in 2021?

This poll will close on Mar 11, 2021 at 9:44 AM.
  1. Very pessimistic

  2. Somewhat pessimistic

  3. Neutral

  4. Somewhat optimistic

  5. Very optimistic

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. shrineofchance

    shrineofchance she/her, they/them

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    Not in terms of whether Tesla will achieve true Level 5 or anything like that, but whether you feel a lot of progress will happen between now and the end of the year.
     
  2. run-the-joules

    run-the-joules Active Member

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    Depends on how we look at it. Progress for internal builds, progress for the FSD beta chosen people, progress for the early access program, or progress for the rest of us peasants?

    I don't expect to see any substantial progress for my own vehicle this year. Maybe some minor improvements here and there, or perhaps no longer needing to confirm green lights, but that's about it.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. DanCar

    DanCar Active Member

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    #3 DanCar, Feb 25, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    I'll be content if they just get out automatic driving in city streets, even with liability waiver and or non disclosure agreement. Was promised for 2019 on the order page for AP and their is a podcast of Elon saying he is certain it will happen by end of 2019.

    At 8:30 minutes: About FSD
    At 10 minutes: Feature complete this year, meaning the car will find you in a parking, taking you all the way to your destination with out an intervention this year, I am certain of that, this is not a question mark.
    At 22 minutes: Elon: We prioritize highways.
    At 25:30 : About Crypto
     
    • Like x 2
    • Informative x 1
  4. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Well-Known Member

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    #4 S4WRXTTCS, Feb 25, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    I voted very pessimistic for FSD General release.

    But, I believe they'll make enough progress on the FSD beta this year to run into road blocks that really prevent moving forwards with FSD (as an autonomous driving system) with HW3.

    So in a way the kind of progress you make when you go SPLAT.

    I do find it funny that the pessimistic options were listed first on the poll. Haha.
     
  5. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Well-Known Member

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    Technically the FSD Beta people are lower than peasants because at least peasants get paid for their work. :p

    The FSD beta people on the other hand do volunteer work for a for-profit corporation led by the richest person in the world (well he trades spots with the richest man in the world).
     
    • Funny x 1
  6. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    When I saw the choices I said Somewhat Optimistic, when I saw your first post taking Level 5 out of play and just going for lots of progress I switched to Very optimistic.

    1. Somewhat optimistic

    2. Very optimistic
     
    • Like x 3
  7. BeeGood

    BeeGood Member

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    FSD consists of Autopark, NoA, Auto Lane Change, Summon, Smart Summon, and city street driving (beta)....it’s really hard to believe that none of those things are going to get better over the next year.

    I voted “somewhat optimistic”, but I should probably be somewhere between “somewhat and very”....maybe just “optimistic”.
     
  8. Cheburashka

    Cheburashka Active Member

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    The speed of improvements in 2020 has been abysmal. Not sure why it would change in 2021.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. shrineofchance

    shrineofchance she/her, they/them

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    The rewrite.
     
    • Funny x 3
  10. Superendo

    Superendo Member

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    to often heard that before...... Elon perception of a timeframe for development has always been overly optimistic
    I hope that I am wrong but I do not expect any substantial update for FSD in Europe this year and next year..,
     
  11. tsh2

    tsh2 Member

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    What is the cadence of FSD Beta updates? I would expect the changes to start slowing down before we expect a wider release otherwise there are too many 'quick fixes' and too much risk of people getting lazy.
     
  12. Microterf

    Microterf Member

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    In that case, you'll be pleased that it has slowed to a trickle as there hasn't been an update in over a month. Started every 5-10 days and slowly changed to every 2-3 weeks, and mow he's saying maybe next week for a new update.
     
    • Like x 1
  13. ChimpledPot

    ChimpledPot Member

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    They are 99.99% there. For any scenarios in the 9s past that, I'm happy to take over. Just release the thing.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. tsh2

    tsh2 Member

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    Nice. I was aware of the initial cadence, so I think this is a good sign. We should see it in Europe 'sometime'...
     
  15. mars_or_bust

    mars_or_bust Member

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    • Like x 2
    • Disagree x 1
  16. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    I wouldn't go that far, but yes, any engineer type of person watching fsd beta and Waymo videos would spot possible limitations with Waymo's technology.
     
  17. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    #17 Bladerskb, Mar 3, 2021 at 7:02 AM
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021 at 7:32 AM
    You mean the fact that Tesla FSD has a avg safety disengagement every 1-10 miles?
    Very convenient that this comparison was done in the night, with no traffic and not livestreamed so the Tesla fanboy can cherry-pick only the tests that FSD Beta doesn't fail in. The Waymo car has to work all the time and the Tesla FSD Beta has to work just once to be used as PR by Tesla fans.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Funny x 2
    • Disagree x 1
  18. mars_or_bust

    mars_or_bust Member

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    You mean the way Waymo panickily avoided complex left turns? :--)

    https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1367042293450960898
     
    • Disagree x 1
  19. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    This is a flawed comparison.

    1) The Waymo was fully driverless. It picked up the person with no driver inside. And Waymo routinely does entire trips like that thousands of times with no driver inside, no disengagements and no incidents. Tesla requires driver supervision and has plenty of disengagements. The Tesla did not pick up the person with no driver. The Tesla driver supervised the entire trip. Big difference. A Tesla doing one trip with zero disengagements with driver supervision is not the same as a fully driverless robotaxi that does the trip thousands of times with no disengagements.

    2) One trip is not enough data to prove reliability. How many trips can Tesla's FSD do with no disengagements? Waymo can thousands. Also, one trip does not say anything about how Tesla's FSD might compare to Waymo's FSD on a different route. There might be routes that Waymo can handle, that Telsa cannot handle yet.

    To argue that Tesla's FSD is the same as Waymo's FSD based on one route is ridiculous.

    The fact is that Waymo has a disengagement rate in CA of 1 per 30,000 miles. Waymo has also released a ton of data that shows they have the best safety of any autonomous car. Waymo has hundreds of people in Phoenix riding every day in fully driverless L4 robotaxis. I am not saying Waymo is perfect. They have areas that still need to be improved. But they are definitely not dead or subpar. That is a ridiculous statement.

    And Tesla won't even report any autonomous miles at all. They reported ZERO last year. If Tesla's FSD is so good, if it is so close to L5 as Elon claims, then why not give us data to prove it, and why not deploy fully driverless robotaxis like Waymo has done?

    Every FSD system will have some limitations. Nobody has perfect FSD. Watching the FSD Beta videos, Tesla's FSD Beta has a lot of limitations.
     
    • Like x 2
  20. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    I agree. But then again, it's difficult to gauge Waymo's progress since you can't force it to drive certain routes and encounter the most difficult maneuvers.

    I'm sure you've seen many JJRicks videos. The types of roads and routes Waymo takes are a joke compared to what we've seen fsd beta encounter.

    For example, I've yet to see Waymo overtake a double parked or delivery vehicle or drive complex mountainous roads. This is the sort of stuff we see fsd beta do on a daily basis.
     
    • Like x 2

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