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How optimistic are you feeling about FSD progress in 2021?

How optimistic are you feeling about FSD progress in 2021?


  • Total voters
    129
  • Poll closed .

shrineofchance

she/her, they/them
Feb 10, 2021
82
88
Canada
Not in terms of whether Tesla will achieve true Level 5 or anything like that, but whether you feel a lot of progress will happen between now and the end of the year.
 

run-the-joules

Active Member
Aug 13, 2017
3,643
6,514
SF Bay
Depends on how we look at it. Progress for internal builds, progress for the FSD beta chosen people, progress for the early access program, or progress for the rest of us peasants?

I don't expect to see any substantial progress for my own vehicle this year. Maybe some minor improvements here and there, or perhaps no longer needing to confirm green lights, but that's about it.
 
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DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
1,740
1,474
SF Bay Area
I'll be content if they just get out automatic driving in city streets, even with liability waiver and or non disclosure agreement. Was promised for 2019 on the order page for AP and their is a podcast of Elon saying he is certain it will happen by end of 2019.
At 8:30 minutes: About FSD
At 10 minutes: Feature complete this year, meaning the car will find you in a parking, taking you all the way to your destination with out an intervention this year, I am certain of that, this is not a question mark.
At 22 minutes: Elon: We prioritize highways.
At 25:30 : About Crypto
 
Last edited:

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,355
6,023
Snohomish, WA
I voted very pessimistic for FSD General release.

But, I believe they'll make enough progress on the FSD beta this year to run into road blocks that really prevent moving forwards with FSD (as an autonomous driving system) with HW3.

So in a way the kind of progress you make when you go SPLAT.

I do find it funny that the pessimistic options were listed first on the poll. Haha.
 
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dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,399
6,016
Knoxville, Tennessee
Not in terms of whether Tesla will achieve true Level 5 or anything like that, but whether you feel a lot of progress will happen between now and the end of the year.

When I saw the choices I said Somewhat Optimistic, when I saw your first post taking Level 5 out of play and just going for lots of progress I switched to Very optimistic.

  1. Somewhat optimistic

  2. Very optimistic
 

BeeGood

Member
Jan 27, 2020
168
118
Georgia
FSD consists of Autopark, NoA, Auto Lane Change, Summon, Smart Summon, and city street driving (beta)....it’s really hard to believe that none of those things are going to get better over the next year.

I voted “somewhat optimistic”, but I should probably be somewhere between “somewhat and very”....maybe just “optimistic”.
 

tsh2

Member
Aug 27, 2019
275
71
Cambridge, UK
What is the cadence of FSD Beta updates? I would expect the changes to start slowing down before we expect a wider release otherwise there are too many 'quick fixes' and too much risk of people getting lazy.
 

Microterf

Member
Sep 18, 2020
169
198
Ohio
What is the cadence of FSD Beta updates? I would expect the changes to start slowing down before we expect a wider release otherwise there are too many 'quick fixes' and too much risk of people getting lazy.
In that case, you'll be pleased that it has slowed to a trickle as there hasn't been an update in over a month. Started every 5-10 days and slowly changed to every 2-3 weeks, and mow he's saying maybe next week for a new update.
 
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tsh2

Member
Aug 27, 2019
275
71
Cambridge, UK
In that case, you'll be pleased that it has slowed to a trickle as there hasn't been an update in over a month. Started every 5-10 days and slowly changed to every 2-3 weeks, and mow he's saying maybe next week for a new update.
Nice. I was aware of the initial cadence, so I think this is a good sign. We should see it in Europe 'sometime'...
 

Bladerskb

Senior Software Engineer
Oct 24, 2016
2,108
2,372
Michigan
I wouldn't go that far, but yes, any engineer type of person watching fsd beta and Waymo videos would spot possible limitations with Waymo's technology.

You mean the fact that Tesla FSD has a avg safety disengagement every 1-10 miles?
Very convenient that this comparison was done in the night, with no traffic and not livestreamed so the Tesla fanboy can cherry-pick only the tests that FSD Beta doesn't fail in. The Waymo car has to work all the time and the Tesla FSD Beta has to work just once to be used as PR by Tesla fans.
 
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mars_or_bust

Member
Apr 20, 2019
128
1,328
EU
You mean the fact that Tesla FSD has a avg safety disengagement every 1-10 miles?
Very convenient that this comparison was done in the night, with no traffic and not livestreamed so the Tesla fanboy can cherry-pick only the tests that FSD Beta doesn't fail in. The Waymo car has to work all the time and the Tesla FSD Beta has to work just once to be used as PR by Tesla fans.

You mean the way Waymo panickily avoided complex left turns? :--)

https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1367042293450960898
 
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diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
7,014
8,041
Terre Haute, IN USA
Waymo vs FSDBeta in Chandler, Arizona - mano o mano.

Suffice it to say that waymo has been found rather subpar....

Seems Waymo is dead on arrival, even on its own lidarized to cm detail turf :)

https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1367081610240135171

This is a flawed comparison.

1) The Waymo was fully driverless. It picked up the person with no driver inside. And Waymo routinely does entire trips like that thousands of times with no driver inside, no disengagements and no incidents. Tesla requires driver supervision and has plenty of disengagements. The Tesla did not pick up the person with no driver. The Tesla driver supervised the entire trip. Big difference. A Tesla doing one trip with zero disengagements with driver supervision is not the same as a fully driverless robotaxi that does the trip thousands of times with no disengagements.

2) One trip is not enough data to prove reliability. How many trips can Tesla's FSD do with no disengagements? Waymo can thousands. Also, one trip does not say anything about how Tesla's FSD might compare to Waymo's FSD on a different route. There might be routes that Waymo can handle, that Telsa cannot handle yet.

To argue that Tesla's FSD is the same as Waymo's FSD based on one route is ridiculous.

The fact is that Waymo has a disengagement rate in CA of 1 per 30,000 miles. Waymo has also released a ton of data that shows they have the best safety of any autonomous car. Waymo has hundreds of people in Phoenix riding every day in fully driverless L4 robotaxis. I am not saying Waymo is perfect. They have areas that still need to be improved. But they are definitely not dead or subpar. That is a ridiculous statement.

And Tesla won't even report any autonomous miles at all. They reported ZERO last year. If Tesla's FSD is so good, if it is so close to L5 as Elon claims, then why not give us data to prove it, and why not deploy fully driverless robotaxis like Waymo has done?

I wouldn't go that far, but yes, any engineer type of person watching fsd beta and Waymo videos would spot possible limitations with Waymo's technology.

Every FSD system will have some limitations. Nobody has perfect FSD. Watching the FSD Beta videos, Tesla's FSD Beta has a lot of limitations.
 

powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,052
3,761
USA
Tesla's FSD is the same as Waymo's FSD based on one route is ridiculous.

I agree. But then again, it's difficult to gauge Waymo's progress since you can't force it to drive certain routes and encounter the most difficult maneuvers.

I'm sure you've seen many JJRicks videos. The types of roads and routes Waymo takes are a joke compared to what we've seen fsd beta encounter.

For example, I've yet to see Waymo overtake a double parked or delivery vehicle or drive complex mountainous roads. This is the sort of stuff we see fsd beta do on a daily basis.
 

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