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How predictable are the end of quarter diacounts

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My bet is that as the end of the quarter nears, and the numbers are coming up short, the fire sale will begin anew.

That is how every publicly traded company is. Tesla is nothing unique in that aspect.

We have a Chevy Traverse that comes off of lease in January of 2018.
I will begin talking to Tesla about a Model X (loaner or new inventory car) in the final two weeks of December 2017. That is the time frame that they will be under the gun to make their 2017 Q4 numbers. That is when you will find the deals available.
 
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Didn't Elon just tweeted recently that there would be no discount going forward? That he was unaware of all the discounts that were give at the end of Q3?

Yeah... I don't believe that at all. Tesla has to either make their sales numbers or minimize the number of cars they fall short. If they have a huge miss on sales, then the stock price could potentially tank by 10% to 20%. That leads to an entirely different set of problems with raising capital for Tesla and SolarCity.
 
Investors are fine with Tesla losing money for now.

However they don't want to see revenue growth slow down at all. So Tesla has to sell a lot more cars compared to the previous year. Discounting is perfectly acceptable to Tesla in order to maintain overall revenue growth and the stock price. Small overall negative earnings will be forgiven for now while Tesla is building the GigaFactory and preparing for the Model 3.

Expect the discounts to continue each quarter in order to meeting revenue growth targets.
Just my opinion.
 
Investors are fine with Tesla losing money for now.

However they don't want to see revenue growth slow down at all. So Tesla has to sell a lot more cars compared to the previous year. Discounting is perfectly acceptable to Tesla in order to maintain overall revenue growth and the stock price. Small overall negative earnings will be forgiven for now while Tesla is building the GigaFactory and preparing for the Model 3.

Expect the discounts to continue each quarter in order to meeting revenue growth targets.
Just my opinion.

Again, Elon sent a memo to his employees that said exactly the opposite and published it on Twitter.

In any case, Tesla doesn't need discounts to meet its target of selling 50K cars in 2H 2016 -- the only issue is whether it can produce cars fast enough to meet demand. EU and Asia are already sold out for 2016 and US delivery dates are already December 2016/January 2017 (even in CA). And this was before the AP2 announcement last week. So it looks like US will be sold out for new deliveries for 2016 soon as well.
 
Didn't Elon just tweeted recently that there would be no discount going forward? That he was unaware of all the discounts that were give at the end of Q3?

Clarification - this only applied to new, pristine cars identical to what is coming off the line. No more discounts on those.

But if the car has been damaged and repaired, or used as a loaner, or as a demo in a store, or doesn't have the latest equipment (like an AP1 car) then yes, they will continue to offer discounts on those. The discount amount is set by corporate and owner advisors can't change the amount.
 
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